The Christmas break is over, and the Utah Hockey Club was back in action over the weekend, losing their first game back from the break to the Colorado Avalanche. Before the break, Utah was on an incredible run, winning eight of 10 games before dropping their last two before Christmas to the Dallas Stars and Anaheim Ducks. However, before Dec. 8, Utah failed to string back-to-back wins together primarily due to how much time they spent on the penalty kill.
Utah HC Has Spent the Most Time on the Penalty Kill
Utah is averaging 6:06 per game shorthanded. This is the most of any team in the NHL, and it is more than a minute per game above the league average for time spent on the penalty kill per game. If this continues, by the end of the season, Utah will spend 96 minutes more than the league average, a complete game and a half worth of extra time on the penalty kill.
Related: Utah’s Poor Special Teams Play Derailing Season
While Utah’s middle-of-the-pack penalty kill percentage may hide this fact, they have allowed the ninth-most goals against while on the penalty kill. They are allowing the seventh-most expected goals and high-danger chances per 60 minutes while shorthanded, but these stats barely scratch the surface of Utah’s special teams issues.
The Real Issue With Utah’s Special Teams
While taking lots of penalties is not good, it is possible to have success while doing so. Last season, the Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup and finished fourth in the NHL and second in the Eastern Conference while having their penalty kill spend the second most time on the ice per game. Then this season, four teams currently in a playoff position are in the top 10 with the most time spent on the penalty kill per game.
The problem with Utah is how much time they spend on the penalty kill rather than the power play, and to illustrate this point, I put it in a graph to post on X.
I'm working on a new article about #UtahHC's special teams… For how well they've played recently. The amount of penalties they are taking will catch up to them at some point…
— J (@PropDr_) December 27, 2024
They spend 6% more time on penalty kills/game than powerplay. Highest differential in the NHL. Only… pic.twitter.com/m67bqqqLHn
From this, you can see Utah is taking the most penalties per game and has the most significant penalty kill time on ice to powerplay time on ice differential. Utah is the only team in the NHL spending six percent more time on penalty kills than on the powerplay. They are one of two teams above five percent and only one of six teams above two percent. Utah consistently takes more penalties than their opponent, nullifying the advantage of any powerplay they get.
The 82-Game Context of Utah’s Special Teams
On the surface, six percent may not seem like that big. But this example will be significant when you put it in the context of an 82-game season when Utah is likely to make or miss the playoffs by a couple of points. Let’s go back to earlier when I mentioned that Utah is on pace to spend 96 more minutes on the penalty kill than average. Utah is allowing 8.73 expected goals per 60 minutes on penalty kill. When you multiply that number by 1.5 to get the point per 90-minute basis, you get 13.09, the number of expected goals Utah is on pace to give up in those 90 extra minutes they will spend on the penalty kill above the league average.
Then, when you look at the Utah Hockey Club power play, they are averaging 15 seconds less than the league average, which throughout 82 games is 20.5 minutes less than the league average—one period’s worth of powerplay time. Utah is fifth to last in the NHL in expected powerplay goals per 60 minutes with 6.76. Multiply that number by 0.33 to get the per 20-minute basis, and you will find that Utah could roughly get another 2.23 expected goals if they were to be at the league average in powerplay time spent on the ice.
Utah won’t get the chance to score a couple of extra power-play goals and will likely give up more than 10 goals on the penalty kill than they should, purely based on their difference in time against the league averages. Either way, it hurts their chances of making it to the playoffs. The amount of time Utah is on pace to spend on the penalty is at the highest rate in the NHL. Their powerplay is on pace to be slightly below. Throughout 82 games, it will cost them 15.32 expected goals per game.
This is almost three games worth of expected goals against Utah based on their special teams and inability to stay out of the penalty box. Utah is currently three points out of a Western Conference playoff spot. They are knocking at the door of the playoffs, but if this trend of taking more penalties than their opponents continues, it could be why they end up a couple of points shy of a playoff series in their inaugural season.
All stats via NaturalStatTrick
