What do tobogganing, water slides and sunflower seeds all have in common? The effort required to procure the intended benefit of these activities far exceeds the derived pleasure of the activity itself. Think of it as a modified version of “the law of diminishing returns” but for banal pastimes. Those that have spent a day at a waterpark are nodding vigorously in agreement.
On occasion, being a fan of the Winnipeg Jets falls into this dubious category. Put simply, sometimes the juice is not worth the squeeze. The mental and financial capital consumed in rooting for any professional franchise can be an exercise in self-immolation. Yet, year after year, we climb the Sisyphean Hill pushing the boulder up the incline.
This year is no different. After a harrowing loss in the first round of the playoffs to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Vegas Golden Knights, the Jets faced objectively their most uncertain offseason in Jets 2.0 history. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Connor Hellebuyck openly (more on this below) rejecting a long-term commitment to Winnipeg manifested itself into the metaphorical equivalent of hauling a GT Snow Racer to high ground while staving off frostbite.
Has the Jets’ offseason provided the requisite dopamine to keep Jets fans engaged in this unrequited idolatry?
The summer began “fast and furious” with Dubois being traded for Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo, Rasmus Kupari and a 2024 second-round pick. Much like the titular move franchise, empty calories followed, as the Jets have been content to re-sign depth pieces for correspondingly small deals.
To be clear, the Jets did very well in their return for Dubois. Vilardi has since avoided arbitration and does not become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) until 2027. Some will argue, validly, that the Jets are kicking the proverbial can down the road and will face further ambiguity sooner rather than later. But Vilardi took a big step forward last season, and his bridge deal should be a bargain for the Jets over the next two seasons (from “Jets, Gabriel Vilardi agree to 2-year $6.875M deal: Why the contract makes sense for both sides, The Athletic, July 19, 2023).
Winnipeg Jets Sign Axel Jonnson-Fjallby and Morgan Barron
Signing both Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (aka, Ethan Hawke doppelganger) and Morgan Barron to two-year deals gives the Jets some organizational depth. But as we can see below, neither player moves the needle appreciably one way or another.
Both do admirable work on the penalty kill, but neither are true play drivers. The Jets struggled to score from January onward last season – specifically the third and fourth forward lines. With a minimum of 50 minutes played, the most prolific third-line pairing was Mason Appleton, Adam Lowry and Nino Niederreiter, with six goals. Yet that combo was only formulated near season’s end. Morgan Barron, Lowry, and Janeson Harkins (second place) tallied four, signifying a dearth of scoring depth.
Dylan Samberg
Dylan Samberg wasn’t necessarily a revelation last season, but he was very solid down the stretch for the Jets. His goals against replacement (GAR) (GAR is a one size fits all number that encapsulates how valuable an individual player is in terms of on-ice play, relative to a ‘replacement level’ player ) metric ranked eighth on the club last year, behind only Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo on the D-core.
More importantly, Samberg provides a blueprint for the real-world application of the Jets developing their defensive talent rather than letting them languish in the press box. The Samberg signing was a good one, but it obfuscates the issue of the bloated salaries of Neal Pionk and Nate Schmidt. Until the Jets release the logjam on the back end, they will continue to operate sub-optimally.
To round things out, the Jets signed Vladislav Namestnikov to a two-year, $4 million deal and Laurent Brossoit to a tidy one-year contract. Many fans and pundits were encouraged by Namestnikov’s connection with Nikolaj Ehlers. I submit that if Namestinikov is playing in the top six with Ehlers, then something is rotten in the state of Denmark (pun intended). No slight to Namestinikov himself, as he is a sturdy and reliable forward, but he does not possess the requisite skill to play consistent top-six minutes. The reason that Namestnikov connected with Ehlers is because Ehlers is just really good at hockey.
Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck
The foregoing, however, is merely window dressing for the fulcrum of the Jets’ future. What of Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck?
After a barrage of Twitter speculation and think pieces (guilty), the fact remains that Hellebuyck (or his agent) have not publicly ruled out the Jets as a possible long-term destination. Speculation of a $9.5 million “average annual value” (AAV) contract is still just that — speculation.
Scheifele’s camp has been eerily quiet, making the start of training cup doubly eventful as it will be the first time Scheifele will be obliged to talk with media since April. Pragmatically, we are blind to the intent and motivation of either Scheifele or Hellebuyck. My best guess – both begin the 2023-24 season as Winnipeg Jets, leaving huge question marks as to the ultimate direction of this team. Should the Jets start the season on fire, with Scheifele and Hellebuyck unsigned, you risk derailing the confidence of your remaining core by jettisoning them mid-season.
Related: Mark Scheifele Still a Jet Today for Many Reasons
The truth is that for most Jets fans, the action is the juice. We are devoted to the journey and only temporarily belied by the results. I, for one, am excited to get started. Recently, @JFreshHockey projected the Winnipeg Jets to lead the Central Division with 107 points in 2023-24. Grab your sunflowers seeds and enjoy the ride.
