Scouting is not an exact science and hindsight can be hilarious at times.
The draft year offers a ton of time for development and so much can change from September to June.
Still, it’s both fun and educational to look back — to laugh and learn.
After publishing my preseason rankings for the 2020 NHL draft — my top 124 following the Hlinka Gretzky Cup — I decided to take a look back on my preseason rankings from 2018 and 2019.
I wanted to see how those rankings held up come draft day. For better or worse.
25) Josh Williams — 92
27) Yaroslav Likhachyov — 91
29) Xavier Parent — 132
Second Round
34) Daniil Gutik — 47
38) Tag Bertuzzi — 175
46) Vladimir Alistrov — 129
47) Dmitri Sheshin — 90
49) Luke Toporowski — 111
53) Lev Starikov — 338
Third Round
63) Taylor Gauthier — 114
64) Nolan Maier — 113
71) Logan Barlage — 134
72) Vojtech Strondala — 101
75) Oleg Zaitsev — 128
78) Petr Cajka — NR
80) Grant Silianoff — 146
82) Brady Meyer — 157
83) Ilya Mironov — 155
87) Roope Taponen — 204
88) Yegor Chinakhov — 143
90) Ilya Ovechkin — NR
Fourth Round
94) Marcel Barinka — 151
96) Martin Lang — 179
98) Filip Prikryl — 336
99) Kari Piiroinen — NR
100) Roman Basran — 233
101) Vladimir Sartakov — 217
102) Boston Bilous — NR
104) Oliver Turan — 335
108) Danny Weight — NR
109) Michael Gildon — 159
113) Matej Toman — NR
114) Daniel V. Tkac — NR
115) Danil Antropov — 264
116) Brooklyn Kalmikov — 268
117) Bailey Peach — NR
118) Xavier Simoneau — 131
121) David Kope — 259
123) Jake Lee — 127
124) Jackson van de Leest — NR
As you can tell, I’m still fairly high on Gutik (47), Sheshin (90), Likhachyov (91), Williams (92), Strondala (101), Toporowski (111), Maier (113) and Gauthier (114) as the eight undrafted prospects who remained in my top 124 from the preseason rankings through to the final rankings.
If I extend that to the top 134 of my final rankings, the list would include six more prospects: Lee (127), Zaitsev (128), Alistrov (129), Simoneau (131), Parent (132) and Barlage (134). Plus there were two other prospects of note that went undrafted from my final rankings that weren’t in my preseason top 124: Justin Bergeron (85) and Billy Constantinou (86).
That is a total of 16 prospects that went undrafted from the top 134 in my final rankings. Keep those names in mind for this season. I still like their potential despite not getting drafted in 2019, and I wouldn’t be surprised if several of them were to get selected as overagers in 2020.
Lastly, I’ll share the 59 players drafted in the top 124 in 2019 that weren’t ranked in my preseason top 124. That number is up from 44 out of 100 in 2018. The math equates to 48 per cent in 2019 and 44 per cent in 2018. That is definitely ugly, essentially meaning one out of every two prospects picked in the top 124 in 2019 weren’t ranked in my preseason top 124.
However, it’s not as awful as it sounds because 17 of those 59 misses were overagers and I didn’t include any overagers in my 2019 rankings until the second half of the season — keeping my focus on the first-time eligibles for the first half — thus those 17 wouldn’t have appeared in my preseason top 124 even if I liked them that high. So that brings the number of misses down to 42 out of 107 — or 39 per cent, which is a more respectable showing.
Now for the good news, just six of those 59 players weren’t ranked in my final top 350 and only one of them wasn’t on my radar — that being Eric Hjorth, a fourth-rounder for Columbus who appears quite promising upon further review and will be playing for OHL Sarnia this season. Here is that list, including their final ranking:
First Round
18) Thomas Harley — 26
24) Philip Tomasino — 16
25) Connor McMichael — 51
29) Brayden Tracey — 52
31) Ryan Johnson — 44
Second Round
32) Shane Pinto — 61
34) Bobby Brink — 22
35) Antti Tuomisto — 55
36) Pyotr Kochetkov (overager) — 48
37) Mads Sogaard — 76
39) Jackson LaCombe — 121
42) Vladislav Firstov — 96
45) Egor Afanasyev — 34
46) Jayden Struble — 120
50) Samuel Fagemo (overager) — 38
52) Vladislav Kolyachonok — 40
56) Brett Leason (overager) — 39
57) Samuel Bolduc — 63
59) Hunter Jones — 107
60) Albert Johansson — 83
Third Round
63) Matthew Stienburg — 251
64) Mattias Norlinder (overager) — 81
65) Alexander Campbell — 138
67) Erik Portillo (overager) — 193
68) Zac Jones — 123
69) John Ludvig (overager) — NR
70) Daniil Misyul — 56
72) Ronnie Attard (overager) — 126
74) Nathan Legare — 54
75) Adam Beckman — 77
77) Gianni Fairbrother — 181
78) Alex Beaucage — 79
81) Cole Schwindt — 267
85) Ilya Konovalov (overager) — 104
86) Layton Ahac — 115
87) Lukas Parik — 140
90) Domenick Fensore — 66
91) Aliaksei Protas — 112
92) Quinn Olson — 182
Fourth Round
94) Viktor Lodin (overager) — NR
95) Jordan Spence — 64
96) Tyce Thompson (overager) — 249
97) Ethan Phillips — 93
99) Cade Webber — 219
100) Matej Blumel (overager) — 208
103) Mason Millman — NR
104) Eric Hjorth — NR (not on my radar)
106) Carter Berger (overager) — 169
107) Alexandr Darin (overager) — 348
109) Marc Del Gaizo (overager) — 125
111) Samuel Sjolund — NR
112) Hunter Skinner — NR
114) Dmitry Voronkov (overager) — 350
116) Lucas Feuk — 149
117) Semyon Chystyakov — 57
120) Max Crozier (overager) — 168
121) Tuukka Tieksola — 72
122) Ethan Keppen — 109
124) Nick Abruzzese (overager) — 247
More bad news, I must have been slacking on my OHL scouting last summer to miss on Harley, Tomasino and McMichael as first-rounders. That is pretty embarrassing, to be honest, since all three were also first-rounders in the 2017 OHL draft — Tomasino fifth, McMichael 11th and Harley 14th overall there — and Tomasino had already produced 24 points as a 16-year-old. They should have been in my preseason top 124 — that is inexcusable — but it didn’t take them long to crack my rankings and work their way up.
McMichael and Tomasino debuted in October — at Nos. 74 and 75, respectively — and Harley followed in November, ironically at No. 76. McMichael was the first to crack my first round, at No. 30 in December, with Harley and Tomasino joining him in February at Nos. 29 and 30, respectively. McMichael topped out at No. 16 that month, while Tomasino kept climbing to finish at No. 16 for me. Harley got as high as No. 23 in April when those three were ranked in succession: Harley (23), McMichael (24) and Tomasino (25). McMichael trended down the last couple months — much like the aforementioned Foote, but mainly due to a mediocre playoff showing for McMichael — while Tomasino and Harley settled in at Nos. 16 and 26, respectively, for both May and June.
As you can see, the USHL and U.S. high school were also weak spots for me. I did catch on to the USHL kids soon enough — Brink (28), Afanasyev (52), Ryan Johnson (88), Firstov (119), Pinto (121) and Phillips (184) were among the November debutants from that league — but the high-schoolers eluded me for much of the season and ended up being way too low in my final rankings. I’ll need to pay closer attention to the high-school circuits this season and develop more contacts at that level.
For the record, LaCombe (177) also debuted in November, while Struble (130) didn’t crack my rankings until February when he entered one spot behind LaCombe (129). They stayed in my fifth round for April and May before topping out in the fourth round for my final rankings with Struble at 120 and LaCombe at 121. They were both selected in the second round, LaCombe at 39 and Struble at 46. I clearly should have been higher on them.
The USHLers made their way up my rankings with 13 finishing in the top 124 for my final top 350: Brink (22), Mastrosimone (31), Afanasyev (34), Ryan Johnson (44), Pinto (61), Phillips (93), Janicke (94), Firstov (96), Marcus Kallionkieli (97), Maccelli (98), Huglen (117), Zac Jones (123) and Isaiah Saville (124), followed by Attard (126). Better late than never and not too shabby on that front in the end.
Closer to home, the four sources of frustration were Tracey, Beckman and Fairbrother as WHLers and Campbell from the BCHL. None of them were in my preseason top 124 or my October rankings. Campbell (109), Beckman (140) and Fairbrother (173) debuted in November, with Tracey also listed on my radar for that month.
All four were ranked from December on, with Campbell topping out at 101 in January and Fairbrother also peaking for me that month at 154. They wound up way too low, with Campbell at 138 in the fifth round and Fairbrother at 181 in the sixth round for my final rankings. Both were selected in the third round, Campbell at 65 and Fairbrother at 77.
It was a slow climb for Tracey, who didn’t crack my top 100 until March (64) but continued to trend up in April (57), May (56) and June (52) despite finishing well short of his draft position (29). Beckman was up and down in my rankings before gaining momentum in May (85) and June (77), finishing just two spots below his draft position (75).
Tracey should have been higher for me much earlier. He was a first-round pick in the 2016 WHL bantam draft, so he was a known commodity, but many felt his production was inflated by playing on arguably the league’s most potent line with Tristan Langan and Justin Almeida, who finished second and third in the scoring race. But as the season progressed, Tracey proved to be an offensive catalyst and more of a driver than a passenger in producing the third-most points (81) and second-most goals (36) for Moose Jaw en route to winning WHL rookie of the year honours.
Beckman didn’t have the same bantam draft pedigree as a fifth-round pick from 2016, but he was coming off a huge season in leading the Saskatchewan midget AAA league in both goals (44) and points (78) as a first all-star team. He was named that league’s top forward, then went on to also win an SJHL (Junior A) championship that spring before making the jump to the WHL. Beckman hit the ground running in Spokane under Dan Lambert, an offensive-minded coach who utilized him perfectly from start to finish in his draft year. I remained higher on his teammate Toporowski for much of the season, but Beckman overtook him in the end by outproducing Toporowski in goals (32-21) and points (62-49).
Fairbrother, a fourth-round pick from the 2015 bantam draft, had only managed five points in 33 games as a 17-year-old rookie defenceman with Everett. He flew under the radar in the U.S. Division, at least for me, but Montreal’s scouts obviously liked what they seen in reaching for Fairbrother in the third round. Everett is developing some good defenders under Dennis Williams, with Wyatte Wylie also getting drafted in 2018 and Ronan Seeley now on the radar for 2020. I’ll try not to sleep on Seeley, but I didn’t have him in my preseason top 124 — he was in my fifth round, at 138 — and several peers reached out to pump his tires as an omission.
Last but not least, Campbell is from Quebec and was new to B.C. last season, forming a dynamic duo with NHL first-rounder Alex Newhook. I don’t watch a ton of BCHL and had received mixed reviews over whether Campbell was riding Newhook’s coattails, but that didn’t appear to be the case in winning that league’s rookie of the year award and winning over Nashville’s scouts.
For anyone interested in reviewing all 10 of my monthly rankings for 2019, here they are:
- Fisher’s Top 350 Final Rankings
- Fisher’s Top 350 for May
- Fisher’s Top 300 for April
- Fisher’s Top 300 for March
- Fisher’s Top 217 for February
- Fisher’s Top 217 for January
- Fisher’s Top 186 for December
- Fisher’s Top 186 for November
- Fisher’s Top 124 for October
- Fisher’s Top 124 Preseason Rankings
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