Upon the conclusion of the NHL’s 2023-24 regular season, we now have the final odds for the team eligible to take the first overall pick in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft.
The consensus overall first pick in this year’s draft appears to be Macklin Celebrini, who had an outstanding season at Boston University as a 17-year-old freshman. The San Jose Sharks have the best odds of winning the first pick in this year’s lottery, but that is not a sure thing.
The Chicago Blackhawks won the draft lottery in 2023 despite having the third-best chance to win and selected Connor Bedard. The Blackhawks have an even better chance to win the lottery this year by finishing with the second-worst record in the NHL. If the Blackhawks should win again this year, they will not be able to win the first pick again for the next three years, thanks to a rule implemented in 2022.
How the Lottery Works
The NHL lottery system is a bit complex, but it was designed to discourage “tanking” by teams that did not qualify for the playoffs.
All teams missing the playoffs are in the lottery. The two teams with the fewest points get more chances at winning the lottery. The first overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls. A team can only jump 10 spots, so only the top 11 teams are eligible for the first pick. If a team in the 12-16 range wins the first drawing, the first pick will be awarded to the worst team. The 12-16 seed team that won the first drawing is also locked into their new position.
Related: THW 2024 NHL Draft Guide
After the first drawing, a second drawing is held to determine the other lottery winner. Like the first drawing, the second winner can only jump 10 spots, but this time, it uses the re-seeded order following the first drawing. This second drawing will not affect the team(s) with locked-in positions from the first drawing. If a 10-spot jump is to a pick already locked in, this team will receive the next available pick.
Ties are broken by teams’ total number of regulation wins, regulation, non-shootout overtime wins, and head-to-head if still tied. Playoff teams that did not win their divisions and did not make the conference finals, sorted by points, are assigned the next picks, while the playoff teams that won their divisions and did not make the conference finals, sorted by points, are assigned the next picks. Conference finals losers sorted by points are assigned the final two picks.
Odds to Land the First Overall Pick
Based on this very detailed formula, the odds for the 11 teams to win the first pick overall in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft are:
Based on the rules in the two lotteries, any team can win the lottery, but that does not mean they get the first pick. If the New York Rangers win, for example, they can only jump 10 places in their draft order, which will be determined by how far they get in this year’s playoffs.
This very complicated formula has been developed and tweaked since the NHL instituted the rule that only non-playoff teams could have the chance at the first pick. After some adjustments were made to accommodate the changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the rules concerning moving up 10 spots and teams winning twice in five years were implemented.
Here is a more detailed look from Tankathon.com at the draft and what probability non-playoff teams have for where their selections might be for the upcoming draft.
2024 NHL Draft Lottery Odds
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 SJ | 25.5 | 18.8 | 55.7 | 2.3 | |||||||||||||
| 2 CHI | 13.5 | 14.1 | 30.7 | 41.7 | 3.0 | ||||||||||||
| 3 ANA | 11.5 | 11.2 | 7.8 | 39.7 | 29.8 | 3.7 | |||||||||||
| 4 CBJ | 9.5 | 9.5 | 0.3 | 15.4 | 44.6 | 20.8 | 4.4 | ||||||||||
| 5 MON | 8.5 | 8.6 | 0.3 | 24.5 | 44.0 | 14.2 | 5.1 | ||||||||||
| 6 ARI | 7.5 | 7.7 | 0.2 | 34.1 | 41.4 | 9.1 | 5.9 | ||||||||||
| 7 OTT | 6.5 | 6.7 | 0.2 | 44.4 | 36.5 | 5.6 | 6.7 | ||||||||||
| 8 SEA | 6.0 | 6.2 | 0.2 | 54.4 | 30.0 | 3.2 | 7.6 | ||||||||||
| 9 CGY | 5.0 | 5.2 | 0.2 | 64.4 | 23.5 | 1.7 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| 10 NJ | 3.5 | 3.7 | 0.1 | 73.3 | 18.4 | 0.9 | 9.6 | ||||||||||
| 11 BUF | 3.0 | 3.2 | 0.1 | 79.9 | 13.4 | 0.5 | 10.5 | ||||||||||
| 12 PHI | 5.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 85.7 | 8.9 | 0.2 | 11.6 | ||||||||||
| 13 MIN | 4.2 | >0.0 | >0.0 | 90.7 | 5.1 | >0.0 | 12.6 | ||||||||||
| 14 PIT | 3.2 | >0.0 | >0.0 | 94.7 | 2.1 | >0.0 | 13.7 | ||||||||||
| 15 DET | 1.1 | >0.0 | 97.9 | 1.1 | 14.9 | ||||||||||||
| 16 STL | 1.1 | 98.9 | 15.9 |
The NHL has not yet set a date and time for this year’s draft lottery. However, it will probably occur in early May, and the results will be announced as part of the coverage of this year’s playoffs.
First Round Notes
The Ottawa Senators will forfeit its first-round draft pick in one of the 2024, 2025 or 2026 Drafts. The Senators will determine which pick will be forfeited within 24 hours of the conclusion of the Draft Lottery of that year. The NHL handed down the punishment as a result of their role in the July 2021 trade of Evgenii Dadonov from the Senators to the Vegas Golden Knights and the subsequent, invalidated March 2022 Dadonov trade between the Golden Knights and the Anaheim Ducks. Their decision could eventually change the order in this year’s draft.
The San Jose Sharks acquired a top-10 protected first-round draft pick from the Pittsburgh Penguins as part of the trade that sent Erik Karlsson to the Penguins last August. And with the Minnesota Wild losing in regulation time to the Seattle Kraken on Thursday, the Penguins finished 19th in the NHL’s overall standings with 88 points. The Penguins would have fallen to 20th overall had the Wild, who finished with 87 points, won or earned a point against the Kraken.
So, if the Penguins do not move up into the top 10 after next month’s NHL draft lottery, the Sharks will own that selection, which will be 14th overall.
The 2024 Draft will be held at the Sphere in Las Vegas with the first round on June 28 and Rounds 2-7 on June 29.
