Since David Pastrnak ended the Toronto Maple Leafs’ season on May 4, the franchise’s leadership has announced that anything is on the table to get the team over its playoff slump. Their only move toward that goal is to fire head coach Sheldon Keefe and hire former Stanley Cup-winning coach Craig Berube. That, in itself, is likely not nearly enough.
General manager Brad Treliving still needs three critical tasks before training camp opens next fall.
Task #1: Figure Out the Marner and Tavares Situations
There are three possible options with each player.
Option #1: Sign Them to Extensions
We have no way of knowing what either Mitch Marner or John Tavares wants to do, and there is no factual news from either of their camps or the Maple Leafs on where they stand. The rumours regarding Marner are all over the place. He has waived his no-move clause. He hasn’t waived his no-move clause. He wants out of Toronto. He doesn’t want out of Toronto. We will wait until we get definitive word on what Marner himself wants to do.
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If Marner wants to stay and the Maple Leafs want him to stay, the dollar value range of his next deal is already set. He will not make more money than Auston Matthews’ $13.35 million cap hit, and he would most likely not take anything less than William Nylander’s $11.5 million. That is a range of $1.75 million, and his next deal will come in if he remains a Maple Leafs player. If he turns unrestricted free agent (UFA) next summer and teams get into a bidding war, Marner could get Matthews’ type money. However, with the Maple Leafs, it won’t happen.
As for Tavares, he has made it quite clear he wants to remain with the Maple Leafs. While he did see a 20% drop in his points production this past season, at 33, he could garner a considerable short-term offer as a UFA next summer. The only way to keep him on the Maple Leafs’ payroll beyond this season is if he is willing to take close to a 50% pay cut from his $11 million deal. The number that pops to mind is $6 million. Then, it is a matter of term.
Option #2: Let Marner and Tavares Play out the Upcoming Season as Rentals
While getting assets in return for players on expiring deals due to becoming UFAs in the salary-cap NHL is always more desirable, it is not like a team gets nothing for departing players. They get one of the most essential assets in the league: salary cap space! In the case of Marner and Tavares, letting them walk in 2025 gains the Maple Leafs $22 million in cap space.
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Keeping Marner and Tavares as rentals gives the Maple Leafs one more shot with the present core, this time under new head coach Craig Berube. You never know how players will react to playing under a new coach. For their more mature years, the threesome of Matthews, Marner, and Nylander have only played for one coach, Sheldon Keefe. A different voice and viewpoint behind the bench might catapult this group to the next level.
Option #3: Convince Them to Waive Their No-Move Clauses
If you can believe half the rumours, Marner has already waived his no-move clause. If he hasn’t, if the team were to play hardball with either or both of Marner and Tavares and say to them, “You are not in our plans. We don’t want you,” what would a player do? Stay where they are told they aren’t wanted? That would not be a pleasant scenario for anyone involved.
If Marner and Tavares were willing to waive their clauses, the Maple Leafs might not be able to get equal value back in a trade, but they would get something back. They could address their defence, goaltending, or even both with the right deal.
Before anything else happens, the situations with Marner and Tavares have to be rectified.
Task #2: Rebuild the Team’s Defense
Based on the players who have signed contracts for next season, the Maple Leafs’ defence would look like this.
Morgan Rielly – Jake McCabe
Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins
Any two of Cade Webber, Topi Niemela, Mikko Kokkonen, Noah Chadwick, William Villeneuve, Nicolas Mattinen, or Marshall Rifai.
We can’t see players in this list other than Rielly, McCabe, Benoit, or Timmins making the roster next season. One of them could surprise us at training camp, but realistically, we are most likely looking at the Marlies’ starting defensive roster with those players.
Ideally, the Maple Leafs could use the left-handed McCabe on his natural side, giving Toronto a left side consisting of Rielly, McCabe, and Benoit. That’s pretty decent. However, as in past seasons, the right side of the defence has been lacking and weak. The only signed NHL-caliber righthander the Maple Leafs have is Timmins, who couldn’t crack the roster this past season.
While he is unsigned, Timothy Liljegren is a restricted free agent (RFA). He can only negotiate with the Maple Leafs. He is eligible for arbitration, and that could become a contentious issue.
It is difficult to gauge if and where Liljegren fits into the Maple Leafs’ plans. He has yet to find his role in the lineup. At times, he has performed well in a top-four role. At other times, he has struggled to remain in the lineup. He has been in the Maple Leafs organization for seven years and has 350 games played as a professional. Usually, by now, a player is what he is.
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It is challenging to say Liljegren has a lot more potential. With Treliving preferring his defencemen to be big and physical, the 6-foot-1, 190-pound Liljegren might see his tenure as a Maple Leaf ending. Either way, he’s not a player that will tip the scales much if he does remain.
After figuring out the Marner/Tavares situation, filling out the right side of the Maple Leafs defence has to be a priority.
Task #3: Figure Out the Goaltending Situation
If he is healthy, Joseph Woll is probably in line for one of the jobs and is in contention for the starting job. Woll has been excellent the past two seasons when he has been healthy but has had trouble staying healthy. Do the Maple Leafs gamble on his health and pencil him in as the potential starter? If so, do they look for a Martin Jones-type replacement or even consider extending Jones?
Or, because of Woll’s lack of experience, do the Maple Leafs spend the money and sign a bonafide #1 goalie? (Note: We can’t see the team re-signing Ilya Samsonov.)
If Option #3 happens for Marner and/or Tavares, it will open up more salary cap space to go after a big-name goaltender.
Dennis Hildeby had a great rookie season in the American Hockey League (AHL). He took over the starting role early in the season and posted a 21-11-7 record with a 2.41 goals-against average and a .913 save percentage. While he did get a couple of call-ups last season, he did not see any ice time. Hildeby could be a third option if there is an injury. He can move up and down between the NHL and AHL freely without having to clear waivers.
The Bottom Line for the Maple Leafs GM Treliving
These are the three biggest issues Treliving must settle before the start of next season. If these can be done successfully, the team will once again have the firepower to have regular-season success.
[Note: I want to thank long-time Maple Leafs’ fan Stan Smith for collaborating with me on this post. Stan’s Facebook profile can be found here.]
