The Los Angeles Kings will meet the Edmonton Oilers in Round 1 for the second consecutive season. Last year, the Kings had a 3-2 series lead before dropping the final two games. Both of these teams are different than last season and improved in a lot of ways. This series has a wide range of potential outcomes, especially from LA’s perspective since they can play a few different styles. Here are a few key things that the Kings need to do if they want to win this series and move on to the second round.
Kings Need to Maintain Solid Defensive Structure
The Kings are known for playing a very structured defensive game. They have employed a strict 1-3-1 neutral zone defensive system in games against the Oilers this season. Overall against every team, this structure has been extremely effective, as they allowed the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season. This metric measures the number of shots a team faces, weighted by the danger of it turning into a goal. Only the Carolina Hurricanes were better than the Kings at preventing expected goals.
In the regular season meetings between the two teams, the Kings did a good job of limiting the Oilers with this structure. They only conceded five goals at five-on-five in four games. Perhaps the biggest selling point of the 1-3-1 was that it was effective against Connor McDavid. The league’s best player had just one five-on-five point in those four games. Most of the time, he was matched up with Phillip Danault’s line. This is the matchup we can expect to see the Kings try to get as often as possible.
A key element will be finding the balance between knowing when to stick to this defensive structure, and when to break away and find more offense. The Kings were able to restrict the Oilers in the regular season, but didn’t create a ton of opportunities for themselves. That’s especially true of the last two meetings, in which they only scored one goal. They were able to win the highest-scoring game involving these two teams, 6-3 on Jan. 9. They only scored one five-on-five goal in that game, but also generated the most expected goals in any of the four meetings.
Related: Oilers’ Chances vs Kings in 1st Round
If the Kings can slow down the Oilers’ five-on-five offense, it will certainly go a long way to helping them win the series. If they can outscore them here and limit the power play opportunities they give up, the Kings could really be in business.
Slow Down the Oilers’ Power Play as Much as Possible
The Oilers finished the season with a power play that scored on 32.4 percent of its opportunities. That’s the best power play in NHL history. McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins each had at least 15 power play goals. They moved Tyson Barrie at the trade deadline, and didn’t miss a beat with Evan Bouchard running things from the blue line. With the way they’ve played this season, it will be difficult for any team in the postseason to prevent them from scoring.
Penalty killing was not the Kings’ strong suit this season. They finished with the ninth-worst PK in the league, and the worst of any team that qualified for the playoffs. However, they were able to have success against this vaunted Oliers’ PP in the regular season. They killed off the first 11 power plays Edmonton had against them this season. They then gave up goals the next two times they were shorthanded against them, but 2/13 is a very good ratio against this team.
Last year in this series, the Oilers were able to have their way with the man advantage for the most part. They went 7/18 in the seven games and scored two goals in three different games. That works out to 38.9 percent, even better than their historic efficiency this season. Of course, the Kings were without Drew Doughty in that series, who will be key for the penalty kill this year. He averaged the most shorthanded time per game for any Kings player during the regular season. If necessary, they will extend those minutes even more with the stakes being higher in the playoffs.
The easiest way to slow down the Oilers’ power play is to not give them opportunities. The Kings need to stay disciplined and avoid any after-the-whistle scrums that could lead to unnecessary time on the penalty kill. If they can limit Edmonton to at most one power play goal per game, they should be able to keep the games close enough and use their own dangerous power play to fight back.
Stellar Goaltending Must Continue
The looming question hanging over the Kings all season has been about the goaltending. Last season, Jonathan Quick had a renaissance year and was the no-doubt starter coming into the playoffs. When he faltered early in the 2022-23 season, the team really didn’t know where to turn. They called up Pheonix Copley, and the career journeyman goaltender gave them more than they could have expected. They still needed to make a deal and decided to move Quick in a trade that saw them get Joonas Korpisalo.
It is a bit fitting that there is still a question over who will be the starting goaltender in Game 1. It seems like Korpisalo is the most likely to get the nod. He has played well this year, ranking 14th in goals saved above expected. He also has playoff experience from his time with the Columbus Blue Jackets. He’s gone 7-3-1 in 11 games with the Kings, which is surely appealing to the coaching staff making the decision on who to start.
Every hockey fan knows you need solid goaltending to win in the playoffs. It sometimes gets overblown how important it is in the postseason, but for the Kings, it is a huge key to success. It’s not common for a goaltender to steal an entire series, but if Korpiaslo or Copley can steal at least one game, the Kings will definitely be able to compete in this round.
These are three areas where the Kings need to be on their game if they want to have a chance to win this series. None of these things will be easy tasks, but the team is capable of doing all three. If they are successful, this series will be closer than most people expect and could come down to a seventh game just like last year.
