Through 14 games, the Philadelphia Flyers are separated from the NHL’s basement by two points. At 5-8-1, they have not played up to expectations. Here are three key reasons why head coach John Tortorella‘s club has started slow.
Reason One: Flyers’ Offense Is Doing Less with Less
Now, what does “doing less with less” mean? The Flyers have less because they have seen their even-strength possession rates plummet to the basement this season. That was what allowed their talent-scarce roster to be largely competitive in 2023-24, providing optimism that they could run it back. Having the puck on their stick was essential to their success, as outlined in the related piece below:
Related: Philadelphia Flyers’ X-Factor for 2024-25: Puck Possession
Let’s quantify the team’s drop-off in puck possession. In 2023-24, these were the Flyers’ possession numbers in all three zones per NHL Edge:
- 41.7 percent in the offensive zone (8th in NHL)
- 18.8 percent in the neutral zone (7th in NHL)
- 39.7 percent in the defensive zone (6th in NHL)
In 2024-25? They have stooped to these levels:
- 39.7 percent in the offensive zone (24th in NHL)
- 18.7 percent in the neutral zone (10th in NHL)
- 41.6 percent in the defensive zone (25th in NHL)
As a result, the Flyers have gone from being ranked fifth per 60 minutes in even-strength shot attempts, 10th in shots on goal, and 18th in expected goals to 30th or lower in each of those statistics from last season to this one. It might seem small, but a two-percent differential in offensive zone possession can be detrimental to generating good looks.
However, these metrics have regressed so severely for another reason, too. The Orange and Black aren’t doing much with the puck even when they get it. If we eliminate puck possession as a factor, the Flyers’ results have crumbled from their previous campaign to this one. Per 60 even-strength minutes of possession in the offensive zone, they have seen significant decreases in key statistics:
- 11.33 percent decrease in shot attempts for (152.83 to 135.52)
- 19.28 percent decrease in shots for (77.70 to 62.72)
- 12.84 percent decrease in expected goals for (6.62 to 5.77)
- 12.62 percent decrease in goals for (6.26 to 5.47)
Not only have the Flyers had the puck less this season, but they are doing less with it. Due to their unique lack of talent, Philadelphia needs to take more shots than other teams to score enough goals to win consistently. But they don’t get the puck, they aren’t shooting the puck, they aren’t putting the puck on the net, and their finishing has not improved. This is one big recipe for disaster.
Reason Two: Flyers’ Goaltending Hasn’t Countered Poor Offense
Though they finished with the league’s second-worst team save percentage in 2023-24 (.889; excluding empty-net goals), the Flyers had good goaltending when they needed it. With 34 quality starts and 20 contests allowing one or fewer regulation tallies, even a subpar offense was enough to win at a near-playoff pace. In games where the Flyers couldn’t score, they didn’t give up goals. When the netminders faltered, the team found its groove offensively. It was a balance that worked until neither side could play well in the months of February, March, and April.
In 2024-25, the Flyers have had six quality starts and three games sacrificing one or fewer regulation goals. Despite four of those quality starts and all three one-or-fewer-goal affairs coming within their last five contests, they are a modest 3-2-0 in that stretch. Since the offense has almost always been dry, the goaltending has had to be essentially perfect. The “you scratch my back, I scratch yours” kind of approach isn’t working when only one party is doing the back-scratching. If the Flyers’ goaltenders have a bad night (which has happened fairly often), it can be chalked up as a loss.
Philadelphia had a strange dynamic last season, but it worked. Oftentimes, the offense scored just enough to win games when the goaltenders stood on their heads and finally exploded when their net was filled with pucks. This season, their offensive “outbursts” have largely been wasted (1-5-1 in games with three-plus regulation goals scored) and the elite starts between the pipes haven’t been frequent enough to counter that.
Reason Three: Inability to Adapt to Michkov
This one is pretty peculiar. I mentioned that the Flyers’ offense is one of the big reasons for their struggles, right? Well, rookie sensation Matvei Michkov has been one of the team’s best players in all sorts of metrics. Not only is he spending more time in the offensive zone than most of his teammates, but he is also generating dangerous looks.
Against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Nov. 7, the Flyers objectively played their best game. It felt like a return to their 2023-24 ways. The catch? Michkov didn’t play.
Related: Flyers Overcome Late Deficit to Defeat Lightning 2-1 in a Shootout
For whatever reason, the Flyers just can’t seem to click as a team when Michkov plays. His expected goal share is above average for the roster, yet they played best when he was in the press box. This might be an adjustment issue.
The Flyers’ winning recipe was pretty simple last season. They did anything to limit scoring chances, blocking countless shots at their end and taking advantage of their opponent’s mistakes to create odd-man rushes and score. Since the players didn’t have the tools to make high-talent plays, they largely relied on fundamentals and their IQ to be victorious. Michkov is not an ordinary player, though.
The Flyers have been unable to integrate Michkov into their lineup effectively. They’ve tried too hard to play to his strengths instead of going with the flow, letting him do his own thing. The players haven’t been able to pretend he’s not there, so he literally had to be absent for the team to stop overthinking their game.
This worked, but at what cost? October’s Rookie of the Month has to play for his own sake. With time, the Flyers should figure out how to utilize a player like Michkov. But that time has not come, and it might be a while before it does.
The Orange and Black have had a rough go this season. This is due to their offensive regression, goaltending not taking the next step, and the club as a whole being somewhat starstruck by Michkov.
Advanced stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (unless otherwise specified)
