There are always a couple of new teams that find their way into the NHL playoffs each season. Last season was no different, as the New Jersey Devils, Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadiens were fresh faces in the Eastern Conference, while the Minnesota Wild and St. Louis Blues found their way into the Western Conference bracket.
It shouldn’t be too much different this coming season, though I’m not sure we’ll get as much turnover since the free agency and trade markets have been quite weak to this point. Here are three teams that qualified for the playoffs in 2024-25 that could miss out this coming season, and three teams that could replace them.
In: New York Rangers
Any Rangers fan you meet will tell you how disappointing their 2024-25 season was. After winning 55 games, totaling 114 points and earning the Presidents’ Trophy the prior season, the Rangers won just 39 games and finished with 85 points in 2024-25, the first time they missed the playoffs in three years.
It wasn’t necessarily a surprise that the Rangers regressed, but to the extent they did was a surprise. General manager Chris Drury did make some changes this summer, but the Rangers were mostly quiet roster-wise. Their marquee addition was Vladislav Gavrikov, one of the top shutdown defensemen in the NHL, who signed a seven-year, $49 million contract with the Rangers.
Gavrikov will help a Rangers defense that could use some stability, but the biggest difference-maker for the team should be Mike Sullivan taking over behind the bench. The Rangers lacked structure last season, and Sullivan should bring structure, specifically at five-on-five.
There’s also high-end talent for Sullivan to work with in Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox and Igor Shesterkin. The team’s core is aging, so I think their Stanley Cup-contending days are over for the time being. But they should be good enough to make the playoffs, especially in what looks like an incredibly weak Metropolitan Division. FanDuel has the Rangers’ over/under at 95.5 points for the coming season, and they seem like a good bet to at least match that mark.
Out: Montreal Canadiens
I’m high on the Canadiens’ future, but they might take a step back before taking that significant step forward. Management has done well to prevent the team from regressing, acquiring Noah Dobson and Zach Bolduc this offseason, and Ivan Demidov has Calder Trophy potential. But working against the Canadiens is that they’re in the Atlantic Division.
The Florida Panthers have won the Eastern Conference three consecutive years. Will they do it a fourth time? I wouldn’t bet on it, but it seems highly unlikely they drop out of a playoff spot. The Toronto Maple Leafs are regression candidates, but they have too much high-end talent to fall out of a playoff spot, even after having lost Mitch Marner to the Vegas Golden Knights.
Related: Canadiens News & Rumours: Dach, McTavish & More
Will 2025-26 be the year the Tampa Bay Lightning finally miss the playoffs? I’m not counting on that, either. The one vulnerable team could be the Ottawa Senators, especially if they don’t find ways to score more goals at five-on-five, but I’d still pick them to make the playoffs over the Canadiens.
Why is that? The Canadiens were one of the worst defensive teams in the NHL last season, allowing the second-most expected goals per 60 in the league. Only the Anaheim Ducks gave up more quality chances per hour at five-on-five, so they will need substantial defensive improvement. Furthermore, I don’t love their forward depth, especially since Kirby Dach’s health still seems to be a question mark. I don’t see the Canadiens falling off a cliff, but they appear more like an 80-90 point team, which would leave them just outside the postseason.
In: Utah Mammoth
Buy your Utah Mammoth stock while you can because this may be the season they break a long playoff drought, dating back to their years as the Arizona Coyotes. The Mammoth had a solid 2024-25 season, winning 38 games and finishing with 89 points, placing them just seven points outside of a playoff position in the West.
What’s most encouraging about the Mammoth is that their five-on-five numbers were excellent last season. They finished with an expected goals share (xG%) of 53.75 percent, ranked fifth in the NHL, and their numbers were even better over their final 25 games, as their 56.94 xG% ranked first.
The talent is there in Salt Lake City, too. Clayton Keller has long been a star, while Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther should only get better. GM Bill Armstrong has had a solid offseason, adding JJ Peterka, Brandon Tanev and Nate Schmidt to a roster that needed a little more scoring and depth. The Mammoth’s biggest question mark is who will step up to back up Karel Vejmelka, but I like where this team is trending. They are a good bet to break into the playoffs in the West.
Out: St. Louis Blues
If the Mammoth are to oust a team from the postseason, it’ll be their division rivals in the Blues. They looked like a different team after Jim Montgomery took over behind the bench for Drew Bannister, and a 12-game heater late in the season helped the Blues sneak into the playoffs as WC2, but they likely would have missed the postseason without that winning streak.
The Blues have some intriguing top-end talent with Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas, and GM Doug Armstrong did improve the team’s center depth by signing Pius Suter and Nick Bjugstad in free agency. But I don’t love the Blues’ defense outside of Philip Broberg, Colton Parayko and Cam Fowler. Justin Faulk was a net-negative last season, and they have two unknowns in Logan Mailloux and Tyler Tucker.
It will be close, likely by a couple of points in the standings, but the Mammoth seem to have a bit more upside in their lineup, and that should lead to them sneaking in over the Blues.
In: Vancouver Canucks
It was tempting to pick the Ducks to surprise and leap into a playoff spot, but they’d need to make an at least 15-point jump to get into the conversation, so they may be another year away. Instead, the Vancouver Canucks get back into the mix after disappointing and missing out on postseason play in 2024-25.
Am I confident in picking the Canucks? No, but I’m not going to lie, their roster looks decent on paper. They found a way to re-sign Brock Boeser, and they have a decent top-nine up front. Quinn Hughes will likely be a Norris contender again, but they also have some depth on defense with Marcus Pettersson, Tyler Myers and Filip Hronek.
There are two keys for the Canucks to rebound and make the postseason: Thatcher Demko’s health and Elias Pettersson playing like a star again. Pettersson is the more important of the two, as they need him to be an 85-95 point player. He’s getting paid $11.5 million per year, so 45 points in 64 games absolutely will not cut it. If he produces 30-plus goals and 89 points as he did in 2023-24, I like the Canucks’ chances of getting back into the playoffs, specifically if Demko stays relatively healthy and manages to make 40-50 starts.
Out: Los Angeles Kings
I’ll admit I do not feel confident about this at all. The Kings were a 105-point team last season, so it would take a relatively dramatic dropoff for them to fall out of a playoff spot in 2025-26. But I did not like what Ken Holland did in his first offseason as the Kings’ GM.
Out were Jordan Spence, David Rittich, Tanner Jeannot and Gavrikov, and in were Brian Dumoulin, Cody Ceci, Joel Armia, Corey Perry, and Anton Forsberg. Not only did the Kings get much older this offseason, but they also got much slower. Spence for Ceci seems like it’ll backfire on the Kings, and they will miss not having Gavrikov; he and Mikey Anderson formed arguably the best shutdown pair in the NHL last season.
Maybe the Kings’ structured system will mask what was perhaps the worst offseason of any NHL team this summer, but they do seem ripe for the picking in a Pacific Division that’s up for grabs outside of the Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights.
There’s Always Some Turnover
The Eastern Conference playoff picture seems a bit clearer than the West. It’s hard to envision teams like the Philadelphia Flyers, New York Islanders, and Pittsburgh Penguins making a challenge for a playoff spot, and other bubble teams, such as the Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabres, seem to be stuck in no man’s land.
Meanwhile, the West is a bit more intriguing. The Calgary Flames were a 96-point team last season, so they could be in the mix, and the previously mentioned Ducks could play meaningful games post-trade deadline. Either way, expect some turnover from last year’s playoff teams and new faces joining the fray.
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