Don’t look now but the Colorado Avalanche are one of three teams – along with the Boston Bruins and Vegas Golden Knights – to have a perfect record through the first two weeks of the 2023-24 NHL season.
The Avalanche are regularly icing a virtually healthy lineup for the first time in over a year and, as a result, have returned to the team that ran roughshod over the league en route to capturing the 2022 Stanley Cup. A 5-0-0 record after five games coupled with a plus-13 goal differential (third in the league) has the team humming, and they look poised to once again make noise in the playoffs.
Here’s a look at the five key factors behind Colorado’s perfect start and how likely the underlying trends are to persist through the season.
Georgiev Making an Early Case for the Vezina Trophy
Show me a Stanley Cup contender, and I’ll point you toward the elite goaltender standing in their crease. So far, the Avalanche and 27-year-old netminder Alexandar Georgiev are no exception. Fresh off of a strong debut campaign after being acquired from the New York Rangers during the 2022 offseason, the Avalanche starter has somehow elevated his play to an even higher level in 2023-24.
Georgiev ranks fifth in both save percentage (.943 SV%) and goals-against average (1.58 GAA) among goalies to have made at least two starts and has saved the most goals above expected (plus-7.64 GSAx) in the league.
Apart from his sparkling boxscore statistics, Georgiev’s consistency has been on full display. He’s allowed more than two goals in a game only once through five appearances and conceded one or fewer on three occasions. He also leads the league in starts with an SV% above .900.
The Avalanche are an elite team at both ends of the ice, but the man in the net is anchoring the entire operation. If that area of the roster is unsettled, so is the rest of the lineup.
Avalanche’s Stars Producing Like Stars
We know a team needs its stars to play up to expectations and outperform their cap hit to succeed, but that’s not always the case. The conversations around bad contracts dominate more than almost any other topic, leaving space for players who provide surplus value year over year. As has been the case since the Avalanche started their ascent to the NHL mountaintop, their stars are once again propelling the team to success.
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Buoyed by Georgiev’s star turn in the crease, Mikko Rantanen (eight points in five games), Nathan MacKinnon (six in five), and Cale Makar (six in five) are all firing at a point-per-game pace or better. Each member of that triumvirate is also generating at least three shots per game, with MacKinnon tied for the league lead, averaging six shots a night.
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The Avalanche also own an expected goals share (xGF%) of 52% or better at five-on-five with each of those three on the ice. They’ve been more dominant in the past, but winning their minutes and outscoring their opponents in terms of actual goals while facing the most difficult opposition every shift.
Given that each of MacKinnon (Hart Trophy), Rantanen (Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy), and Makar (Norris Trophy) all have their eye on winning major individual awards, expect the Avalanche’s trident of superstars to remain motivated all year long.
Special Teams Finding Success at Both Ends of the Ice
Though most of the game is played at five-on-five, how a team’s special teams units perform should never be overlooked. Having one or both an effective power play or penalty kill can mask many shortcomings at even strength, even if it means a team may live and die by that proverbial sword.
Let’s start with the penalty kill where the NHL’s second-best unit (95.5%) has been unexpectedly led by depth forward Logan O’Connor, who recently tied Joe Sakic’s franchise record for consecutive games with a shorthanded goal. We’re not even a month into the season, but it’s been a far cry from ranking 17th with a 79% kill rate a year ago.
The Avalanche were perfect while shorthanded in their first four games before the Carolina Hurricanes extinguished their streak of successful kills at 19. The team also leads the league in shorthanded goal difference by outscoring opposing powerplay units 3-1 to start the year.
Georgiev’s influence on the penalty kill’s success should also not be overlooked (seventh among goalies in SV% – minimum 10 minutes played while shorthanded), but the team has done a decent job of suppressing shots and chances against. Colorado ranks fifth in shots against per 60 minutes (SA/60), 14th in scoring chances against per 60 (SCA/60), 15th in expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60), and 17th in high-danger chances allowed per 60 (HDCA/60). The underlying numbers don’t quite match up with the raw percentages, but a capable goalie can paper over the cracks.
At the opposite end, the Avalanche’s power play is clicking along at its familiar high-flying pace, by both traditional and analytical metrics. They’ve converted on 27.8% of their overall opportunities (eighth) and rank seventh or better in terms of shots per 60 (SF/60), expected goals for per 60 (xGF/60), scoring chances for per 60 (SCF/60), and high-danger chances for per 60 (HDCF/60).
In particular, they sit first in HDCF/60 and second in SF/60 to set the standard in both chance quality and volume. Couple the elite level of shot and chance generation with the finishing talent of Makar and Rantanen, in particular, and you’ve got the recipe for one of the league’s best power-play units.
Most teams are above average in one facet of special teams play but not the other, so it’s a boon for the Avalanche that they rank highly in both. Given that they’ve extended that success to five-on-five play, the team suddenly looks like an all-situations juggernaut.
Avalanche Dominating Possession at Five-on-Five
Colorado is also controlling the territorial battle to a significant degree during five-on-five play. They benefited from a pair of games against the San Jose Sharks and the Chicago Blackhawks, who are more concerned with their draft position, but staying focused and executing the game plan should still be commended.
By the advanced metrics, the Avalanche have accounted for 58.1% of all shots (first), 56.8% of expected goals (third), 54% of scoring chances (seventh), and 55.3% of high-danger chances (ninth). The Avalanche have clearly focused on generating a ton of volume and overloading opposing defenses and goalies, but their 6.6% shooting percentage (SH%) at five-on-five (24th) suggests that they’ve been unlucky to have not scored more often.
| Statistic | For | Against |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 1st | 2nd |
| Expected Goals | 4th | 6th |
| Scoring Chances | 4th | 11th |
| High-Danger Chances | 15th | 5th |
What is notable about the Avalanche’s success at five-on-five is that they’re not controlling play solely through their offense or defense, but rather through a collaboration of the two. Colorado’s aggressive pressing style creates breakout and rush opportunities going the other way, leading to the neutral-zone activation that has been found to be one of the best ways to increase scoring in the modern NHL.
Shooting percentages, save percentages, and special teams efficiency always fluctuate throughout the season, so establishing a sturdy foundation of positive five-on-five results is crucial to ensuring long-term success. Luckily for the Avalanche, they seem to have gotten everything right in the early going.
Avalanche’s Offseason Acquisitions Providing Support
Much was made about how general manager Chris MacFarland would utilize and wield the Avalanche’s cap space during the offseason to better augment their superstar core. Enter forwards Tomas Tatar, Ryan Johansen, Ross Colton, Jonathan Drouin, Miles Wood, and Fredrik Olofsson, all newcomers expected to make an impact this season.
Johansen has made an immediate impact as the Avalanche’s new second-line center, tallying three points in five games while winning over 57% of his faceoffs. The veteran pivot between Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin has formed one of the league’s most dominant lines. The trio has accounted for over 78% of expected goals at five-on-five (third among lines to have played at least 20 minutes together) and over 64% of shot attempts (fifth).
Drouin has struggled to carve out a permanent role thus far while taking spins on almost every forward line with a number of linemates and only a single assist through five games. Fortunately, his demotion to the defacto third line appears to be a better fit. He’s flanking Colton with Wood on the opposite side (both with only one point apiece), and the line has controlled 67% of expected goals at five-on-five (29th – minimum 14 minutes played) even if the actual goals have yet to follow.
As for Tatar, his initial stint on the third line didn’t work out as expected but since he’s joined MacKinnon and Rantanen (one of the NHL’s best duos), the chemistry has been readily apparent. In 14 minutes, the trio has accounted for 70% of the expected goals share (16th – minimum 14 minutes played) and 56% of shot attempts (48th).
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Olofsson has rotated as a secondary piece on the penalty kill, averaging over two shorthanded minutes a night while adding something to an already energetic fourth line with O’Connor and Andrew Cogliano.
Take these numbers with a grain of salt given the extremely small sample sizes, but intriguing trends are emerging and it would be foolish to fully dismiss the results.
Avalanche Looking Like Stanley Cup Favourites
If the Avalanche’s perfect record wasn’t enough evidence of their Stanley Cup candidacy, most of the NHL’s analytical commentators have them near the top of the NHL mountain.
HockeyViz currently gives the Avalanche a 10% chance of winning the Presidents’ Trophy for the most points in the regular season, with only the Boston Bruins, Dallas Stars, and Vegas Golden Knights ranking higher.
The model created by Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic projects them as having a 9% shot at winning the Stanley Cup (from ‘NHL 2023-24 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings’, The Athletic, 10/23/23). The Avalanche are one of 10 teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the Cup, and one of four with a minimum of eight percent (joined by the Stars, Hurricanes, and Bruins).
The team at MoneyPuck is slightly less impressed by the Avalanche’s early exploits and only gives them a 4.4% probability (11th in the league) of hoisting the silver chalice come the spring.
Any statistical model is bound to have its flaws, but each one mentioned has the team sitting among the top third of the league. Maintaining their blistering pace will go a long way towards solidifying their credentials in the eyes of commentators and models alike.
What’s undeniable is that this group looks much more dangerous than the injury-plagued 2021-22 edition, and that should strike fear in the entire Western Conference. No matter what else is in store for the Avalanche this year, the 2023-24 season promises to be a wild ride from start to finish.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
