The Buffalo Sabres took steps to improve their roster this offseason, but it’s clear management thinks most of their talent is strong enough to get them to where they want to be. There are several factors that the Sabres need to consider if they want to make the playoffs, and the effectiveness of defenseman Henri Jokiharju is going to be one of those things. His play could help resolve a handful of issues on defense this season.
Jokiharju’s 2023-24 Season
In 2023-24, Jokiharju set career-highs in games played (74), assists (17), points (20), and blocked shots (106, nearly doubling the 58 he had the season prior). His ice time was slightly less – 21:01 on average in 2022-23 compared to 18:59 last season – but it paid dividends.
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He also meshed very well with Rasmus Dahlin (from ‘Sabres stock watch: Risers, fallers and question marks through 3 preseason games’, The Athletic, 9/25/24). The Sabres had 56% of the expected goals at five-on-five when the two played together. Dahlin plays a more free-wheeling style, while Jokiharju handles the defensive responsibilities. The result could be huge for Dahlin’s offensive game.
What the Sabres Need From Jokiharju
The Sabres need more of what Jokiharju did in 2023-24, even though his game is far from perfect. He plays a quiet, reliable game while chipping in a bit offensively. More importantly, he could help resolve a potential weakness. The bottom pairing would be weak if Mattias Samuelsson had to move up the lineup. Having him on the third pairing with Connor Clifton gives the Sabres a physical duo with a stay-at-home presence. That flexibility makes the Sabres’ defensive group better as a whole.
Despite logging less than 500 minutes with Dahlin, the pairing works. They were among the best tandems in the league and the Sabres were noticeably better when Joker was healthy and in that slot. They should be the team’s clear top pairing, allowing the smooth-skating duo of Bowen Byram and Owen Power to operate as, at least on paper, a very good second pairing.
2024-25 Projection
Projections for a player like Jokiharju won’t look sexy on paper because he doesn’t put up much in the way of offense, but that’s not always a bad thing. His contributions are on the defensive end of the ice, blocking shots, playing with a touch of physicality, and letting Dahlin play a more free-wheeling style. Besides, the experiment in pairing him with Byram proved as disastrous as pairing him with Dahlin was successful.
It seems clear that he is going to be next to Dahlin for at least the start of the season, which means his ice time should be closer to the 21:53 and 21:01 average from the two seasons before last. Offensively, he is going to hover around a handful of goals, 15-ish assists, and the upper teens in points; that’s okay. Getting 100-plus blocks and nearly 100 hits would be good for a Sabres defense that needs more of an edge than last season.
A Wild Card on Defense
Jokiharju has limitations and a low ceiling. That said, he fits so well with Dahlin that it could improve his value to the team exponentially. Sliding him around didn’t work last season and shouldn’t be done unless absolutely necessary. If he and Dahlin can continue to deliver what they did in limited minutes last season, they could become the definitive top pairing the team has been looking for. More importantly, it will unlock several benefits for the rest of the defense.
The Sabres, on paper, have the chance to ice one of the better defensive units in the league. The talent is there, and it is up to head coach Lindy Ruff to find the necessary balance to get the most out of each member of the unit.
