Five games are a small sample size to panic over, but it is large enough to see a disturbing pattern emerge of a team being outplayed at even strength. It’s one issue that Montreal Canadiens head coach Martin St. Louis will need to fix.
Related: Canadiens Defenders Need to Adjust to the System
As a collective, the top-six forward group has underperformed what was expected from them, leading to a 2-3-1 record so far this season. Changes will need to be made if they want a better chance to win.
The Canadiens’ Top Line
The hope was that the Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky line could be relied on to play against the opposition’s top line and still produce a net gain offensively. Six goals in six games for Montreal’s best sniper, Caufield, who is second in the NHL in goals is good news, but that’s about it.
The top line was the most used at 5-on-5 against the New York Islanders with just over 12 minutes of ice time as a unit, and it did score a goal at even strength. However, against an Islanders team that struggles to score, Suzuki’s line was out-shot, holding a woeful Corsi For percentage (CF%) of 40.9%, and worse yet, were out-chanced as well, finishing with an expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of 35.8%.
This isn’t just one bad game. Over the first five games played in 2024-25, Suzuki’s line has been outplayed. They hold very unflattering numbers, being out-shot with a CF% of 35.4 and out-chanced with a pitiful xGF% of 30.8. The issue doesn’t seem to be Slafkovsky, whose possession stats jump dramatically upwards when separated from that line with a 47 CF% and a 76.1 xGF%. So, this begs the question, what is the issue?
Issues Facing the Canadiens
Last season at 5-on-5, the Suzuki line was the one bright spot offensively. They were a net positive offensively as their possession stats were above the 50% mark with a 50.8 CF% and a 51.7 xGF%. This season’s possession stats are far too low. Yet somehow, all three players are producing at or just slightly above a point-per-game pace.
But the fact they are losing the possession battle is a concern. As a team, Montreal has been unable to establish itself in the offensive zone for any real length of time consistently. Their forecheck is not effective and their top offensive chances at 5-on-5 tend to come off of the rush and not from a sustained cycle. The games against the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Los Angeles Kings were difficult. It is the Islanders game that best shows some of the issues, as they had clearly controlled the amount of time of possession in that game.
Being competitive is good, but it needs to be directed and structured; it needs purpose. The Canadiens are unable to break out of their zone without considerable effort, or luck. This inability to quickly exit the zone and retain possession makes life easier for the opposition. The numbers don’t lie, there is far too much of the game being spent in Montreal’s zone. They do seem to lack organization in their defensive play, and the team as a whole needs to adjust to the coach’s defensive system. For now, they hold the NHL’s worst CF% and xGF% and it’s adding up to the loss of points in the standings.
Canadiens Have Internal Solutions
It isn’t all doom and gloom. There is a resiliency to the lineup, as rookies like Lane Hutson are stepping up into large roles and the special teams are keeping Montreal in the game as they sit 12th in the NHL on the power play and second on the penalty kill. That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t make adjustments at 5-on-5 to help round out their game, especially if they want to be “in the mix” for that final playoff spot.
One solution that gets thrown about by the fans on social media is to “rescue Ivan Demidov” from the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL). While it is true that Demidov has been utilized far less than most in North America feel he should be, and also not used in the offensive situations he deserves, his development isn’t necessarily at risk either. Yes, the Canadiens are going to visit Demidov, but no, that doesn’t mean they’re going there to “rescue” him either. They will assess his progress, provide some feedback to the player, and maybe even make requests of his usage to his KHL coach, but the young forward will remain in Russia until his contract ends this season before he makes the jump to North American professional hockey.
Yes, cleaning up defensively is a solution. Since the opening night, there has been concern about the team’s inability to exit their own zone, which leads to far too many shots against. They have been outshot in virtually every game this season, leading to a league-worst shot differential. The plan cannot be to rely on Samuel Montembeault to keep up with his .940 save percentage.
The solution is not to break up the top line either. It is one that can be done without making a trade or kidnapping a prospect; what they need is to have their second line become more of a threat. Kirby Dach is still not back to form after missing all last season with a knee injury. Montreal needs him to get there, fast.
“I feel good slowly trying to build back the game and get to a spot where I was last year, kind of feel that confidence again. That’s just going to come with time, you can’t really force these things, I mean, it’s just about being in the right spots and doing what I can to get back into game shape as soon as possible.”
The loss of Patrik Laine makes a significant difference for that top-six group as teams would have to spread their defenses to game plan for him. No offense to Joel Armia, but he is not a long-term solution for that line.
It could be beneficial to give an offensively-minded forward like Emil Heineman an opportunity to play in the Canadiens’ top six. He had some of the best advanced stats of any Canadiens skater in the preseason, and so far this season, he has had a positive impact on the xGF% of each one of his linemates. He also has one of the highest CF% and close to the top of the lineup with his number of high danger scoring chances at 5-on-5. He has speed, size, an ability to play solid positionally on the defensive side but also, he has an amazing shot with a fast release that can beat a goalie cleanly.
There is no magical solution for a rebuilding team that will suddenly make them a real playoff threat, but a small lineup change to give more offensive punch can’t hurt. If the fear is defensive play, considering the low possession numbers the second line already has, adding a rookie like Heineman, who has played professionally in Europe and in the American Hockey League (AHL) for several seasons, can’t hurt. Say what you want about a St. Louis-coached team, but they work hard and never quit; a little better offensive output and they could add more wins over last season’s total to the W column this season.
