The Tampa Bay Lightning took down the Washington Capitals 3-0 on Saturday night. The top performer was goalie Andrei Vasilesvkiy who saved all 32 shots on goal to earn his first shutout of the season and the first star of the game.
When looking at his season overall, it doesn’t look like Vasilevskiy has improved much from last season. He has a .896 save percentage (SV%) and a 2.64 goals-against average (GAA) in his first seven games. It doesn’t help that he’s been pulled from a game already this season. However, he’s off to a much stronger start than the surface-level numbers or even parts of the eye test suggest.
It’s time to paint a better picture of how his season is looking so far.
1 Game Skewing the Numbers
First, let’s look at how much gut punch from the Toronto Maple Leafs is influencing Vasilevskiy’s overall season numbers. He saved 10 of 14 (.714 SV%) before being lifted for backup Jonas Johansson. Pulling him was a must, the game was getting out of control and Johansson limited the Maple Leafs to a single goal the rest of the game.
However, when you take away this outing from his season stats, he looks closer to the usual Vasy we’ve gotten to know. In the other six games, he has saved 137 of 150 shots for a .913 SV%. That’s much better. It would still be the third-worst save percentage of his career if he were to finish the season with that number, but it would still be considered a return to form.
Going game by game a bit, it can also be argued key performances inflate his save percentage the same way one game drags it down. Take away the shutout and the Leafs game, the two biggest outliers of his start, and his save percentage is .889. This is being pointed out in all fairness.
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So here’s another way to judge it. He’s played seven games, and he’s allowed three goals or fewer in five of them. If the goalie holds teams to three goals or fewer nearly three-fourths of the time, it’s a good indicator that he is getting his job done.
What the Advanced Stats Say
Advanced stats are more favorable to Vasilevskiy as well. According to Money Puck, he has a 2.0 goals saved above expected. It’s an improvement out of the gate from how it compares to last season. Last season, he finished with a minus-2.5 goals saved above expected.
His 2.0 is better than some other notable goalies:
- Jordan Binnington: 1.6
- Jeremy Swayman: 1.4
- Juuse Saros: 0.4
- Sergei Bobrovsky: minus-2.1
However, it’s far behind other top goalies in the league:
- Jake Oettinger: 7.0
- Igor Shesterkin: 5.3
- Connor Hellebuyck: 4.5
So, while he’s playing better than it might look on the surface, he still needs to catch up to other top goalies in the league. It’s way too early to compare it to seasons past because everyone will look worse. It’s an accumulative stat.
For example, Vasilevskiy had a 25.3 goals saved above expected in 2022-23, the year before his injury. He’s currently averaging .311 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. In 55 starts, that would be 17.1. It’s still not where he was before his injury, but it would be a strong bounceback.
So, it’s clear that out of the gate, Vasilevskiy is not putting up numbers that are going to turn heads. However, he’s still doing exactly what he needs to do, and that’s play well enough for the Lightning to win.
