The planets have to align just right for it to make sense for the Montreal Canadiens to re-sign Jake Evans. And, admittedly, one of the things that has to go right for the pending unrestricted free agent to get a new offer from the Habs is for him to put together an incredibly unforeseen, statistically career-best season like he is in 2024-25. The thing is, if things continue down this road, they won’t be the only team to do so.
Evans just scored for the fifth consecutive game against the Tampa Bay Lightning. On its own, that’s impressive. However, considering he’s got 10 already, on pace for 23, while only having scored a career-high of 13 up to this point (2021-22), it goes to show how much of a core piece he’s emerged as recently. For someone who has never scored 30 points, Evans is poised to not only shatter that mark with the 23 he has so far, but put up numbers representative of a top-six forward… when he’s really only ever been a fourth-line centre.
Evans Playing for a New Contract
In effect, Evans is testing the extremes of the old trope of playing for a new contract. Currently earning a cap hit of $1.7 million, Evans is going to get a chance to cash in this summer, especially if he keeps up this pace. As he’ll be 29, this may be his only opportunity to sign a big contract. He should obviously take it, regardless of which team offers it. However, all due respect to Evans and all he’s accomplished in his career and this season, the Canadiens shouldn’t be the team to, even if realistically it’s easy to envision them taking advantage of holding his rights and re-signing him before the start of free agency even hits.
As just mentioned, Evans will be 29. As also just mentioned, he’s never scored 30 or more points. His career shooting percentage is 10.2%. This season, he’s got one of 31.3%. It’s far from a leap to suggest the success he’s enjoying this season is unsustainable. So, on the off chance Evans keeps reaching the scoresheet at this torrid pace the rest of 2024-25, the Canadiens (or whichever team) will be paying him for what he’s accomplished this one season… not how he’s produced over the parts of the previous five he’s played and, most critically, not necessarily for how he’ll produce over the term of his next hypothetical deal.
If Evans keeps up his current pace, he’ll end up with the aforementioned 23 goals and 52 points. Looking at the scoring leaders from last year, that puts him in the same territory as players like Chandler Stephenson, then of the Vegas Golden Knights, Vladimir Tarasenko then of the Florida Panthers, and Teuvo Teravainen, then of the Carolina Hurricanes, each of whom went on to sign new contracts as unrestricted free agents last summer, albeit each under slightly different circumstances.
Evans vs. Stephenson, Tarasenko, Teravainen
The deal that made the most sense was Teravainen’s, now with the Chicago Blackhawks. They signed the 30-year-old to a three-year, $16.2 million deal, so a cap hit of $5.4 million, which isn’t horrible for a player with a history of relative top-six success. Evans doesn’t have that, to be clear. While that implies Evans won’t sign for nearly as high as the same cap hit, he’ll probably also be looking for a longer term. So, there will be a presumable element of give and take, but signing a bottom-six forward heading into his 30s for any longer than that is akin to playing with fire. The Canadiens shouldn’t be looking to get burned.
With that in mind, the deal that made the least sense was arguably Stephenson’s, which was for seven years and $43.75 million ($6.25 million per season). That isn’t to say Stephenson didn’t earn a raise after having earned a $2.75 million hit over the previous four seasons, during which he established himself as a key component of the eventual Stanley Cup-champion Golden Knights (2023). After having been discarded by the Washington Capitals, the team that drafted him in 2012, for a fifth-round pick, he has developed into a top-six forward. However, he went from two consecutive 60-plus-point seasons to 51 in 2023-24.
Stephenson currently has the same 23 as Evans, meaning he’s on pace for another 50-ish points, just with a significant drop in his goals scored. That figure currently stands at just three. So, all that to say, the Kraken are paying him $6.25 million on average for each of the next seven seasons, when it’s readily apparent he won’t come close to producing at the same level he did even two years ago. If anything, his production will continue to drop.
Realistically, the Canadiens would stop far short of giving Evans the same salary or term. One would hope anyway. However, Evans is driving the bus here and it can become a runaway vehicle in a hurry if common sense fails to prevail. Even if it does, the Habs can be left holding the bag. As an illustration, take Tarasenko’s deal, which is somewhere in the middle of the previous two.
Now 33, Tarasenko signed with the Detroit Red Wings for just two years and $9.5 million total ($4.75 million cap hit). For a former 40-goal scorer, that kind of makes sense… only if a sharp decline in his production wasn’t imminent. However, there had been signs to that effect leading up to his Stanley Cup victory with the Panthers. So far this season, he has just four goals and nine assists in 35 games, playing a 14th-ranked 14:33 on the Red Wings. For some context, that’s less than Evans is getting (15:38), as bottom-six forward for all intents and purposes.
Evans Not a Top-Six Forward
Granted, Evans is technically getting top-six ice time now, but it’s still off the career-high 16:01 he got last season. To his credit, Evans answered the bell then when pressed into top-six service due to injury. He still fell short of taking his level of play to the next level relative to in 2021-22 when he similarly got a boost in ice time, after the offseason departures of Phillip Danault and Jesperi Kotkaniemi down the middle.
Even in breaking out that season with a career-high 29 points, Evans arguably fell short of meeting expectations that season. And, just to be clear, this isn’t Danault 2.0, where the Canadiens have watched with wonder as he has consistently reached the scoresheet with the Los Angeles Kings only to maybe regret not meeting his salary demands once upon a time. Danault was a two-way forward who had been centering the team’s No. 1 line over long stretches. Evans has only established himself as a fourth-line centre.
Had Evans had the season he’s having now that 2021-22 season instead, this would be a different discussion. However, he’s three years older and has failed to establish himself as a consistent offensive threat, emphasis on “consistent,” meaning year in, year out. It’s worth noting, at his peak, so that season, he put 124 shots on net in 72 games, nearly two per game. This season, despite his huge point totals, he only has 32 (36 games). That isn’t exactly a sign of a player on the cusp of hitting his stride offensively, but rather the opposite.
Sure, that’s in large part due to how Evans is deployed, as the forward with the most shorthanded time on ice (3:08 per game). That also shows how the Canadiens view him, as a defense-first forward, not someone who warrants anywhere close to the even reasonable $5.4 million Teravainen makes.
Evans vs. Armia
The closest comparable currently on the team itself is probably defensive-specialist Joel Armia, who signed a four-year, $13.6 million deal back in 2021 after having hinted at greater offensive potential with 30 points in 58 games in 2019-20. Evans may take faceoffs and have more responsibility in general as a centre instead of a winger, but Armia also has a greater track record of putting up numbers. Even so, that didn’t stop the Canadiens from demoting him to start 2023-24 to make room for the younger players coming up in the system. He’s obviously since re-established himself as an NHL forward, but there is still a great deal of buyer’s remorse there.
Pierre McGuire: "They've been trying to trade Joel Armia for a long time I can tell you right now. I was working for a team where they offered Joel Armia to us and that was 3 years ago" 👀
— The Sick Podcast with Tony Marinaro (@thesickpodcasts) November 15, 2024
Full pod👇
Watch: https://t.co/tIx0TWQPek#GoHabsGo #thesickpodcast @TonyMarinaro pic.twitter.com/pc2pH45j91
It’s easy to see the Canadiens offering Evans a similar deal only to realize he’s not the same offensively inclined forward they re-signed and try to move him, with centres like prospects Owen Beck, Oliver Kapanen and Michael Hage in the system. Those are the players the Habs need to focus on, prospects with more potential than Evans. They may not pan out, but it’s better to have room available to see what they’ve got than be stuck at the hip with a fourth-line centre making around $4 million because of one impressive season that resulted in you a) overpaying him and b) committing to him for the next half-decade or so.
Another Canadiens comparable? Juraj Slafkovsky, who also scored 50 points last season. As a first-overall pick who’s displayed top-line potential over a sustained period of time within a few seasons of having gotten drafted, he’s the type of player you invest in, into the long term. And the Habs did just that, extending him for eight years at a $7.60 million cap hit.
Related: Host Canadiens Steal Show by Getting Slafkovsky, Dach at 2022 Draft
Obviously the Canadiens aren’t in danger of giving Evans anything close to that, but they need to keep financial room available too. Next season, they already have over $50 million committed to eight forwards, with Armia’s contract finally coming off the books. It would be a huge bummer to go right back to having to pay Evans similar money, when they still have to consider having to extend Lane Hutson to a presumably rich deal in 2026, just for starters. As is always the case, due to cold, hard logic, paying your top players is the priority. Giving Evans a rich contract not only shouldn’t be, but it shouldn’t even be in the cards.
Canadiens Must Move on from Evans
Evans is an admitted feel-good story. All Canadiens fans should be rooting for him and hope he strikes it rich. After all, his successes are the team’s this season. That’s undoubtedly true should the Habs give him a rich deal too. Regardless of what he’s getting paid, if he scores, a goal is a goal and it helps them win. However, if he’s only scoring with decreasing frequency, all the while taking up a roster spot that is ideally awarded to someone else, with a cheaper contract and greater potential, a rich deal in this case becomes incredibly counter-intuitive.
The Canadiens shouldn’t resign themselves to a fourth line centred by Evans, as they build a contender in the coming seasons. For all he’s accomplished this season and in his career upon emerging as a reliable defensive presence, they shouldn’t re-sign him, period. They should aspire to a fourth line they can roll in all situations, one that is even more of a threat to score regularly, sustainably than Evans has been.
To Evans’ credit, that’s saying a lot. He deserves all the praise in the world for what he’s accomplished this season. He just doesn’t necessarily deserve the rich contract that will inevitably result. With that in mind, Canadiens fans should continue to root for him. The more he scores the more he prices himself out of their pay structure, but the more he’ll get rewarded, just ideally by another team. Maybe that team can play him higher in the lineup. Because he deserves more ice time, just not at the expense of all the players poised to leapfrog him on the Habs’ depth chart.
Evans is a good player. He’s proven that. He’s even proven to be great this last little while. The problem is the Canadiens should be hoping to be great over the next long while. Try as he might, you don’t need to look at the stars to see that’s not him.
