Despite the Tampa Bay Lightning being a few games behind the rest of the NHL, the middle of the 2024-25 season has quickly come upon us. With that said, it’s time to grade how every Lightning player has done in the first half of the season.
Related: Point & McDonagh Set Milestones as the Lightning Beat the Struggling Bruins 4-1
This article will focus on all their top-line forwards, while other articles will focus on the rest of the forward core. Earlier this week, I assigned grades to the defense core as well.
Nikita Kucherov: A+
The Lightning’s superstar Russian winger picked up right where he left off last season. Nikita Kucherov won the Art Ross Trophy for the league’s leading point scorer in 2023-24 with 144 points in 81 games. In 2024-25, Kucherov ranks fifth in the NHL with 57 points in 37 games. The four players ahead of him have played 4-6 more games, making his points per game even more impressive than his raw total.
Kucherov has been dominant in five-on-five possession metrics for Tampa Bay as well, proving he’s not just a power play merchant. His respectable 53.33 expected goals for percentage (xGF%) via Natural Stat Trick ranks fourth on the Lightning’s forward core. Furthermore, he ranks second in goals for percentage (GF%), outscoring his opponents 42-23 at five-on-five.
The forward has always been known for his elite passing abilities, becoming the first winger in NHL history to eclipse the 100-assist mark in a season. In the microstats workbook, Kucherov ranks first in center lane passes and passes to the slot per 60. He’s on pace for another stellar season and has been solid in all three zones for Tampa Bay.
Brayden Point: A
Emerging as one of the best centers in hockey over the past half-decade, Brayden Point has developed his goal-scoring touch late in his career. He scored 51 goals in 2022-23, 46 in 2023-24, and is on pace for an even higher total in 2024-25. He has 25 goals and 47 points in 35 games this season. He missed four due to injury but remains on pace for the first 100-point season in his NHL career.
Unlike his linemate Kucherov, Point hasn’t been great in all three zones this season. While his offense is booming, his defensive metrics have dipped. Despite outscoring his opponents 32-23 on the ice at five-on-five, he ranks last on the Lightning with 2.90 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60). The Lightning will need Point to clean up his defensive game in the second half of the season to keep the opponent’s top lines off the scoreboard.
However, that’s not to say Point isn’t having the best offensive season of his career. In the microstats department, he leads the forward core in passes to the slot, and primary shot assists per 60, proving he’s not just a pure goal scorer. Not to mention, Point is a zone entry machine and leads the team by a mile in zone entry carry-ins per 60.
Jake Guentzel: A
Labeled as the “Steven Stamkos replacement” in the offseason, Jake Guentzel was acquired to address Tampa Bay’s five-on-five struggles over the last few seasons. One of the NHL’s perennial five-on-five point producers over the past half-decade, Guentzel has fit into the Lightning’s systems like a glove. His 21 goals and 40 points in 38 games rank 33rd in the NHL scoring race.
Guentzel is the most well-rounded player on the Lightning’s top line because he plays the best defense amongst the trio. His 1.98 goals against per 60 (GA/60) ranks sixth on the Lightning at five-on-five. Furthermore, he’s controlling the pace of play with a 50.53 expected goals for percentage. Lastly, he leads the Lightning in five-on-five goal share, outscoring opponents 35-19.
The winger brings versatility to the top line in the microstats workbook. Guentzel leads the team in cross-slot passes and exit assists per 60. He’s able to find seam passes for high-danger scoring chances while also helping the top line break out of the defensive zone with possession to rush up the ice.
Closing Thoughts
The Lightning forward core was in for a change with Guentzel’s arrival. With Stamkos out of the picture, many were concerned Tampa Bay wouldn’t be the same team offensively. However, Guentzel has proven to be a massive upgrade over Stamkos and continues to help Kucherov and Point play some of their best hockey to date. The Lightning face off against the New Jersey Devils on the road on Jan. 11 at 7 p.m. EST.
