In an unexpected move, the Colorado Avalanche addressed their glaring need for a second-line center by trading pending unrestricted free agent (UFA) Alex Galchenyuk to the Nashville Predators for Ryan Johansen. The Predators retained 50 percent of his $8 million cap hit in the deal, meaning that the Avalanche will only be on the hook for $4 million for the next two seasons (through 2024-25).
Johansen is coming off of an underwhelming season in which he only scored 28 points in 55 games after a skate blade cut his leg, an injury which required surgery and prematurely ended his 2022-23 campaign in February. Other than that, he hasn’t missed significant time since the 2016 Playoffs and tallied 63 points as recently as the 2021-22 season.
Judging by the comments made by Avalanche general manager Chris MacFarland, it appears as though the team is comfortable heading into the 2023-24 season with Johansen as their second-line center. He isn’t the trade target I would have gone after, but betting on him to rebound in a different environment represents a decent enough bet at his price point and acquisition cost.
Now, let’s dive into what the Avalanche gave up (or didn’t) in the trade, Johansen’s on-ice strengths and weaknesses, his fit in the lineup, and potential moves the team could make heading into the draft and free agency.
Avalanche Retain Top Assets in Johansen Trade
For what the Avalanche gave up in the Johansen trade, it’s fair to classify this move as a pure salary dump from the Predators’ perspective. Pending UFA Galchenyuk is a journeyman forward who has struggled to establish a foothold in the NHL for several seasons, and spent the majority of 2022-23 with the Avalanche’s farm team in the Colorado Eagles.
Apart from a player who didn’t figure into their future and some cap space, the Avalanche did not give up all too much for Johansen. They retained their 2023 first-round pick and all of their top prospects, leaving them with enough ammunition to make a splash at the 2023 Draft, in free agency, or at the 2024 Trade Deadline.
Barry Trotz, the Predators’ former head coach turned general manager, looks to be pivoting towards a retool of sorts, and clearing $4 million in cap space gives him the opportunity to acquire more cost-effective talent, if he so desires. It’s interesting that Trotz chose to retain salary rather than execute a buyout.
The latter would give the Predators more cap space in the short-term but would have extended his cap hit to 2026-27 (four years at $2.67 million per) so Trotz likely didn’t want to worry about the cap hit for longer than was necessary.
Could the Avalanche have targeted a younger center even if he was slightly more expensive in terms of cap hit or acquisition cost? Perhaps, but Johansen offers tangible value at a reduced commitment by both salary and term, making it a fair deal.
Johansen Brings Playmaking and Faceoff Abilities
At this stage of his career, Johansen’s primary source of value comes from his passing and playmaking, as well as being a right-handed center with excellent results in the faceoff circle. The 6-foot-3 pivot has averaged 36 assists over 82 games for his career, and his underlying micro-stat profile (courtesy of Corey Sznajder) paints him as someone who can get his teammates the puck in shooting areas.
According to Sznajder’s tracking data, Johansen led the Predators with nearly 13 shot assists (the final pass before a shot is taken) per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 last season, one of the highest rates in the league. His rate of scoring chance assists was in line with league average however, suggesting that he hasn’t been as successful at threading the needle into more dangerous areas, or his teammates haven’t been able to get into those areas with clear avenues to receive the puck.
In Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen, the Avalanche possess three of the league’s best at generating shots and individual scoring chances. If Johansen is attached to one or more of those three, he stands a better chance of increasing his rate of scoring chance assists.
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Other than his passing, Johansen has consistently been one of the NHL’s most prolific centers at winning faceoffs. Among skaters to have taken at least 100 draws last season, he ranked eighth with a 59.2% win-rate. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, he ranks 28th among those who have taken at least 1000 draws by winning 54.2% of his matchups in the dot.
Notably, Johansen has historically been better at winning shorthanded faceoffs. Though he only won 50 percent of such draws last season (67th among qualified skaters), he ranks ninth (55.2 percent) over the last three seasons.
The Avalanche have struggled mightily in the faceoff department over the years, ranking 28th last season and 26th over the past three in all situations. Although what happens after a faceoff is more important than who wins it, having a capable pivot in the circle adds another weapon to the arsenal. Any team would rather win the draw than not, so why not add someone who can do so while playing regular top-six minutes?
Johanensen’s Health, Shooting, and Lack of Discipline are Issues
Though Johansen has been relatively healthy for the past half-decade apart from last season’s injury, health is a fickle thing. A significant leg injury like the one which forced him to miss several months could be re-aggravated, and it’s not as though he was the fastest skater prior to the setback. In fact, he was one of the league’s lowest-ranked forwards in terms of generating clean zone entries last season.
Even if he manages to play in most, if not all of the team’s games in 2023-24, he’ll need to be supported by wingers who can carry the puck. The Avalanche fortunately have several such players (Nichushkin, Rantanen, Arturri Lehkonen, and Evan Rodrigues if he returns), but it’s still a weakness that needs to be compensated for by the coaches.
While Johansen’s passing is a clear strength, he’s struggled to generate shots on net with any regularity. He finished last among Predators forwards in terms of shots per-60 and sat near the bottom compared to all NHL forwards. Additionally, his finishing leaves much to be desired. The center has only eclipsed 20 goals in a single season on three occasions (only once since 2014-15) and has averaged 18 goals per 82 games for his career.
Among 417 NHL forwards to have played at least 1000 minutes at 5-on-5 over the past three seasons, Johansen ranks 401st in shots per-60 and 400th in individual scoring chances and expected goals per-60. Further, almost all of his shots come off the cycle after establishing pressure in the offensive zone, with very little generated off the rush in transition.
Lastly, Johansen’s inability to draw penalties while showing a lack of discipline presents another potential drawback. While he ranks 48th among NHL forwards since 2020-21 in terms of minor penalties taken, he sits second-last in that time in penalty differential. He’s only drawn nine minor penalties in that time, putting him ahead of only Ryan Strome with a minus-15 margin. If Johansen’s agility and skating regress further following his leg injury, he could find it very difficult to fulfill his defensive duties without getting into penalty trouble.
Avalanche Making Worthwhile Gamble with Johansen Trade
Although the Avalanche addressed a glaring positional need by acquiring Johansen and giving up very little to do so, the trade does not come without risk.
Johansen will turn 31 before the start of the season and was never fleet of foot even before suffering a significant leg injury. He will need to be flanked by wingers who can do the heavy lifting in terms of forechecking and puck-carrying, and is not a positive impact player when it comes to penalty differential.
Still, a $4 million cap hit is a bargain compared to what free agent centers might command this summer and his contract only runs for the next two seasons, meaning he is not an anchor on the Avalanche’s books even if things go south.
The Avalanche still have the room to sign their key restricted free agents (Bowen Byram and Alex Newhook) and bolster their bottom-six due to the cap space afforded by Gabriel Landeskog’s long-term injured reserve (LTIR) designation. Every solution for the top-six center spot was likely to carry some risk but as far as gambles go, the Johansen trade is a good one.
Data courtesy of AllThreeZones, Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
