The first two games of a given season are hardly indicative of the entire year to come, but a revamped Colorado Avalanche squad could not have asked for a more ideal start to the 2023-24 campaign.
The Avalanche dismantled a rising conference rival (the Los Angeles Kings) in the season opener and managed to overcome a stellar performance from Mackenzie Blackwood to eke out a win against a team (the San Jose Sharks) more interested in increasing their draft lottery odds this season. That pair of opponents aren’t members of the league’s elite in the same vein as the Avalanche, but you can only play (and beat) who’s in front of you.
As with any result in a team-based sport, a whole host of characters can lay claim to some of the Avalanche’s early success this season. Devon Toews – fresh off the heels of a lucrative contract extension – as well as superstar center Nathan MacKinnon (three points in two games) have both played significant roles in the team’s first two wins. Yet, the three following players have stood out among the crowd. Let’s dive in.
3. Cale Makar, Defenseman
2023-24 Statistics: 2 Games Played (GP) – 2 Goals (G) – 1 Assists (A) – 3 Points (PTS) – 25:04 Average Time on Ice (ATOI)
Cale Makar – the 2021-22 Norris Trophy winner and future Hall of Fame defenseman – has continued where he left off last season and is tied for the positional lead in goals and shots (10) while sitting second in points. His two-game average of just over 25 minutes a game ranks ninth in the league and he has once again been a force at both ends of the ice.
Despite taking on the Avalanche’s toughest offensive and defensive assignments at 5-on-5, the 24-year-old rearguard has posted a 63.6% share of shots (SF%), 57.9% share of expected goals (xGF%), and Colorado has outscored the competition 3-1 when Makar has taken to the ice.
Now, two games nearly represent the smallest of small sample sizes, but it’s good news for the Avalanche that their star defenseman appears to have recovered from the injuries that gave him trouble last season. If the team stands a chance of winning the fourth Stanley Cup in franchise history, Makar will have to be spearheading the effort from the blue line.
2. Mikko Rantanen, Right Wing
2023-24 Statistics: 2 GP – 2 G – 2 A – 4 PTS – 23:30 ATOI
Mikko Rantanen as the Avalanche’s second star of the week? You might be asking, how does a player who is either leading or tied in team goals, assists, points, and even-strength points not earn the top nod? That speaks more to the outstanding play of the first star of the week rather than any of Rantanen’s shortcomings, especially since the Finnish winger has been one of the NHL’s best performers to start the season.
Rantanen’s four points (all coming against the Kings) are tied for third in league scoring while his overall even-strength output is tied for second. He’s played the fourth-most minutes among Avalanche skaters at even strength, but is running at sub-50% in several possession metrics at 5-on-5. That’s not something to overlook, but he’s outscored his problems so far and actual, tangible goals should outweigh almost every other factor over such a minuscule sample.
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The Avalanche are scheduled to face the Seattle Kraken (Oct. 17), Chicago Blackhawks (Oct. 19), and Carolina Hurricanes (Oct. 21), so Rantanen has an opportunity to continue padding his scoring totals. He tallied two goals and 11 points in eight games against those three teams last season, including seven points against the Blackhawks alone.
Whether Rantanen continues to convert at a 25% clip for the rest of the season remains to be seen, but he did score 55 goals on 17.9% shooting just last season. With the level of offensive talent around him, I wouldn’t bet against the Avalanche’s new record-holder for goals in a season.
1. Alexandar Georgiev, Goaltender
2023-24 Statistics: 2 GP – 2 Wins (W) – .947 Save Percentage (SV%) – Plus-3.75 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx)
Though several players could legitimately have laid claim to the Avalanche’s first start of the opening week of the 2023-24 season, the honor should go to none other than Alexandar Georgiev.
Of the 21 netminders to have played in two games this season, the 27-year-old ranks fourth in SV%, third in goals-against average (GAA), and has saved the third-most goals above expected in the league so far.
The Avalanche supported Georgiev with five goals in the season opener against the Kings even though he did his part in saving 34 of 36 shots on goal, but he was nearly perfect against the Sharks while stopping 20 of 21.
After entering his first season with the Avalanche with modest expectations given his inconsistent tenure with the New York Rangers, Georgiev starred in his first run as a starting goalie in the NHL. He appeared in over 60 games and submitted a long-shot bid for the Vezina Trophy.
If the Avalanche are to maintain their success through the entire campaign, Georgiev will once again have to play his part behind a roster capable of generating a ton of offense on any given night. The first week of games has shown that he’s up for the task.
Avalanche Have Sights Set on the Stanley Cup
There are still 80 games remaining on the Avalanche’s regular-season schedule, but they’ve already got the ball rolling on what they hope is a second Stanley Cup-winning campaign in three seasons.
Jared Bednar and his players found themselves among the betting favorites to win the Cup at the start of the season, and the first two wins have only served to solidify that sentiment. As of this writing, MoneyPuck gives the Avalanche a 6.2% chance to be the 2024 Stanley Cup champions.
A lot can happen from now until the spring but it bodes well for the season that the Avalanche and their leading stars have hit the ground running and burst out of the gate to start the 2023-24 campaign.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
