As we discard the 2023 calendar and open up the one for 2024, unofficially the halfway point of the 2023-24 regular season, the Chicago Blackhawks have faced a considerable amount of uncertainty. But within the bewilderment that’s fallen on this Blackhawks squad, both on and off the ice, there has been one sure thing: Connor Bedard.
The 2023 first-overall pick, the latest version of hockey’s “Next One,” has come into the league with no fear, playing on the first line for each of the Blackhawks’ 36 games (as of Jan. 1), scoring 15 goals and 18 assists for 33 points. Bedard, just 18 years old, is 11 points ahead of second-place Philipp Kurashev, and three goals ahead of second-place Jason Dickinson.
But just how good is he really? And are the Blackhawks and general manager Kyle Davidson doing everything they can to surround this generational talent with enough skill to succeed?
Bedard at 18 is Already One of the NHL’s Best
If you look at the history of first-overall picks in the 21st century, you will see that all but a handful take some time to adapt to the NHL. The 2020 first-overall pick Alexis Lafreniere of the New York Rangers might hit the 40-point mark this season for the first time in his four-year career; New Jersey Devils’ 2019 No. 1 pick Jack Hughes couldn’t score more than 31 points in his first two seasons; 2009 top-pick Steven Stamkos of the Tampa Bay Lightning barely cracked the 20-goal mark in his rookie campaign, then followed it up with a league-leading 51 goals the following season.
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The point is, even the game’s top draft pick takes time to acclimate to the size and speed of the NHL. Only a few players taken first overall have been able to step on the ice and immediately fit in among hockey’s best. Only 36 games into his career, you can add Bedard to that list.
This was solidified in Chicago’s Dec. 27 matchup against the Winnipeg Jets. The analytics and prediction-based website MoneyPuck gave the Jets an 86 percent in the Deserve To Win O’Meter, indicating that in nearly every facet of the game, the Jets dominated the Blackhawks. You don’t need an algorithm or a probabilities calculator to figure out that the Jets outshot the Blackhawks 38-25, controlled play for most of the game and looked every bit of the playoff contender they have for most of the season.
What they didn’t have was an 18-year-old freak of nature in Bedard, who scored both of the Blackhawks’ goals, including the overtime winner, to help Chicago steal a game they had no business winning against a team that could do some damage in the post-season. If you sat down to watch that game, what else could you do beyond shaking your head, appreciating what your eyes were seeing?
Let’s go a little further: expected goals (xG) is a model-based metric used to isolate the evaluation of play-driving and chance-creation from things players can’t control (bad bounces, quality of goaltender, etc.). In layman’s terms: if you have a high xG, then you’re probably a good player.
According to MoneyPuck, as of Jan. 1, among all Blackhawks with a minimum of 100 minutes of ice time, Bedard is first on the club with a 10.7 xG, a full 1.2 points ahead of second-place Nick Foligno, and a full two points ahead of third-place Tyler Johnson. Now, among the rest of the league, 10.7 puts Bedard at 80th, tied with Edmonton Oilers’ forward Warren Foegele and Boston Bruins’ forward Charlie Coyle. Not exactly elite company, no offense to the two veterans.
But considering that Foligno is all the way down at 116th with his 9.5, and that the Blackhawks are near the bottom of the barrel in scoring with an average of 2.42 goals-per-game, Bedard’s first NHL campaign becomes all the more impressive. You’re watching a teenager, on a team of bottom-six forwards and players born in the 21st century, generate offense by himself at a level that puts him among the best of the best.
GM Kyle Davidson Has to Improve His Roster
You don’t need a Harvard degree like Ryan Donato to know that this Blackhawks franchise is in the midst of a rebuild. Teams that “earn” the first-overall pick aren’t, well, good. And the 2022-23 Blackhawks weren’t good, finishing 26-49-7, last in the Western Conference’s Central Division with 59 points and just a shade ahead of the league-wide last-place Anaheim Ducks.
Unfortunately, you could make a fairly persuasive case that this season’s version of the Blackhawks is worse. Just a handful of contests before the 41-game/official midway mark of the season, Chicago is 11-23-2 with 24 points, last in the Central Division and 12 points back of the seventh-place Minnesota Wild. The only team worse than the Blackhawks is the San Jose Sharks, who began the season with a 0-10-1 run, tying an NHL record for the worst start to a season in history. Since then, they are 9-15-2, and while they’re still dead last in the league standings, they’re only three points behind the Blackhawks in the Western Conference.
Something has to give. Yes, the Blackhawks aren’t trying to win games this season, and it’s given head coach Luke Richardson and his staff a chance to evaluate the fountain of youth that is the franchise at this moment. But Davidson, who is coming up on the two-year anniversary of the interim tag being removed from his job title, needs to spend the time between now and the March 8 NHL Trade Deadline finding skilled players to surround Bedard with.
You might be reading this and thinking: “Hans, Booby, why would we waste assets on players when we’re not anywhere near ready to compete? We’re in the new year and we couldn’t be further from a playoff spot!” And you’d be right. In most circumstances, a team this bad shouldn’t be trying to acquire players in order to make them better.
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But most circumstances don’t involve players that nearly everyone in the game refers to as the “Next One.” Most circumstances don’t have a player — did I mention he’s 18 — who is nearly a point-per-game and still isn’t legal drinking age in both Canada and the United States. Most circumstances don’t involve Bedard, a player whose mere presence rejuvenated a fanbase that said goodbye to two Hall of Famers in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews in less than a year.
What the Blackhawks have right now is someone who shines among the league’s best, who recently said that the city of Chicago “feels like home now,” and that he’s “super grateful to be here and to be a Blackhawk.” We may only be one-half season into the Bedard era of the Blackhawks, but it’s abundantly clear that this is someone who will have a massive impact on the future of the league.
That’s why it’s so important for Davidson and management to find more talent. He brought in Foligno, Taylor Hall and Corey Perry to help Bedard navigate the day-to-day of being a professional, but the end-of-season injury for Hall and the departure of Perry means there’s a massive void to fill, and Foligno, the unofficial captain of the club, can only do so much. With nearly $10 million of cap space to play with, the Blackhawks have some room to make a deal. Most rebuilding squads would use that space to take on salary and gain an asset, or just sit on it and wait for the offseason.
Chicago shouldn’t wait. Sure, the season is a wash, but you’ve got one of a handful of the most talented players in the world right now. No offense to the Donatos and the Folignos of the world, but this team can do a lot more in putting better players around its best player. We’re not saying to make a blockbuster and trade draft picks like Kyle Dubas, but there are good players in this league who, due to an array of circumstances, are available for the right price.
It’s up to Davidson to find them and make that deal.
