It goes without saying that the upcoming game between the Columbus Blue Jackets and the New York Islanders will be a tense one. Specifically, both teams enter this game with much uncertainty about the head coaches, Pascal Vincent and Lane Lambert.
Two teams have already replaced their head coaches with the Edmonton Oilers hiring Kris Knoblach and the Minnesota Wild hiring John Hynes, and this season looks like the one where coaching changes are more common. A loss by the Blue Jackets or the Islanders can only further warm up the hot seat for Vincent and Lambert.
The Blue Jackets have been a disaster this season with an 8-14-5 record which is the worst in the Metropolitan Division. Their recent loss on Dec. 5 felt like a new low as they boasted a 3-0 lead in the third period only to lose 4-3 in overtime to the Los Angeles Kings.
Related: 4 Takeaways From Islanders’ 5-4 Loss vs Sharks
The Islanders haven’t been a mess and on the contrary, sit in fourth place in the Metropolitan Division with a 10-7-7 record. However, the blown leads throughout the season have been an issue that reflects poorly on everyone. Like the Blue Jackets, the Islanders enter this game following a third-period collapse as they had a 4-1 lead against the San Jose Sharks but lost 5-4 in overtime.
It’s still early and a lot can change from now until the end of the season. That said, this game feels like a must-win for both teams.
What A Loss Might Mean For The Blue Jackets
Since Oct. 24, the Blue Jackets have gone 5-12-5 and another defeat will be their third in a row and fourth in five games. The season is in a downward spiral and only getting worse for a team that was hoping to take a step forward and contend for a playoff spot.
The offseason wasn’t perfect but the Blue Jackets made a lot of moves that indicated they were ready to contend. Along with selecting Adam Fantilli in the NHL Entry Draft and adding an elite talent to one of the top prospect pools in the league, they acquired Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson to strengthen the defense and round out the roster. Now, they look like a team that is staring at another teardown after a failed rebuild. The young players provide high upside but a lot of questionable decisions leave them in a difficult place.
A loss to the Islanders won’t have Vincent or general manager (GM) Jarmo Kekalainen fired. However, the clock will be ticking, especially for Vincent, who has notably been at odds with some of the star players and hasn’t gotten the best out of this roster. The Blue Jackets are a rebuilding team but the poor play across the board is a reflection of a poorly coached team and a change might come sooner rather than later.
Kekalainen will likely keep his job until the season is over but the chaos since this offseason brings to the forefront his role with the Blue Jackets. A coaching hire that backfires typically leaves the GM who made the decision without a job. Kekalainen not only made the wrong choice with the Mike Babcock hiring but also whiffed by promoting Vincent. If Vincent doesn’t make it until the end of the season, the Blue Jackets will be tasked with finding their fifth head coach in five seasons. That’s not a great track record for a GM who has otherwise done a respectable job in terms of putting together a strong team.
Both a head coach and GM change are issues that will be resolved by the end of the season, not after the upcoming game. One change that might happen in the immediate aftermath would be a trade. The Blue Jackets see the writing on the wall for this season and know a rebuild or even a retool might be in the works and some veteran players could be on the move in the coming weeks.
Will Another Blown Lead Cost Lambert His Job?
Something interesting to ponder is that if the Islanders held on to every third-period lead they had this season, they’d be 16-6-2 which would put them in second place in the Metropolitan Division. In short, they’ve been playing like one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference but the blown leads are the primary thing preventing them from being an elite team.
It’s not just that the Islanders are losing games late but how they are losing them. They’ve taken penalties, missed assignments in the defensive zone, struggled to put games away with late goals, and despite having a slower and older roster, struggled to slow games down to burn the clock. All this is a reflection on Lambert and his coaching style.
When Barry Trotz was fired in the 2022 offseason, the hope was that Lambert would speed things up and allow the Islanders to play a loose, more offensive-minded game. They’ve done so but at the cost of plenty of goals the other way. Moreover, the loose style has allowed the opponents to generate offense late in games. Another loss, specifically, one where the team blows a late-game lead, won’t have Lambert fired, but the bottom line is that the team can’t continue to lose games this way.
The Nov. 28 collapse to the New Jersey Devils was a low point in the season and a game that showed how far the team had fallen from the days when they were led by their defensive unit. They had a 4-2 lead in the third period and lost 5-4 in regulation to their division rival. The Islanders are fortunately earning points with many losses coming in overtime but eventually, patience will run out on Lambert if the team doesn’t improve late in games.
Roster Changes Are Coming
The bottom line is that this game might be the final straw for both teams and determine whether they should make a move. A game against a divisional opponent at this point in the season will prompt both front offices to make changes afterward, especially following a devastating loss.
The Blue Jackets have a straightforward path. Another loss will urge them to trade away some key players. A lot of their core players are either top prospects or under contract for multiple seasons but Patrik Laine will be an interesting forward to watch. He’s a free agent after the 2025-26 season and his talent is unquestioned, making him a player the Blue Jackets could flip for a great return to kickstart a rebuild. He has a modified no-movement clause and an $8.7 million average annual value (AAV) contract but is arguably their best trade asset.
The Islanders losing this game will force changes but those changes will be more complicated. Many fans are clamoring for a rebuild but tearing down this roster is more complicated. Brock Nelson would field a strong return while Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Cal Clutterbuck can field a midround draft selection if they are traded to a contender. After that, the Islanders have a veteran-heavy group with many players that teams won’t see as worthwhile additions.
For GM Lou Lamoriello, his moves would likely be the opposite of a rebuild and he’d buy to add a spark to the team. Last season, he acquired Bo Horvat to turn the season around and he’d do something similar again. Another loss or a slump that causes the season to spiral out of control will motivate him to try to acquire a scorer like Elias Lindholm or Jake Guentzel. Lamoreillo doesn’t believe in rebuilds and it’s a philosophy that has made him a great GM and won him multiple Stanley Cup titles but also causes ownership groups to eventually replace him.
What To Watch For/Keys to the Game
The big question for the Islanders is whether the defense can hold up. They’ll create plenty of scoring chances and likely run up the score in the first two periods of action but the defensive unit has to shut things down. With Adam Pelech and Sebastian Aho both dealing with injuries, the unit is a shell of itself but Mike Reilly, Scott Mayfield, and Samuel Bolduc must step up to secure a victory.
In a similar vein, the Islanders have to see their offense continuously applying pressure and finding the back of the net throughout the game. The recent losses have proven that no lead is safe and a victory will require the offense to keep its foot on the gas and run up the score against a Blue Jackets defense that has struggled all season.
The Blue Jackets enter this game in a different state and with the season already looking like a lost cause, these games will be about seeing the young skaters develop. A big game from Fantilli will go a long way and a strong defensive performance from David Jiricek will show that he deserves a greater role moving forward. The rest of the season looks bleak for the Blue Jackets but a strong second half, especially from the younger players, will provide a more optimistic outlook.
