The Calder race was expected to have a crowded field in 2023-24, and that’s turned out to be the case about a quarter of the way through the season. There are the obvious candidates, like Connor Bedard, who is the clear front-runner. But he’s far from the only talent in the Calder race. Let’s break down some standout players in the race for Rookie of the Year for the 2023-24 season.
Tier 1
Connor Bedard
Let’s get the obvious out of the way. Bedard is the front-runner for the Calder Trophy, and it will take quite the performance from someone else chasing him to take the trophy away from the first-overall pick in the 2023 draft.
Bedard has ten goals and 18 points in 21 games, putting him on pace for 39 goals and 71 points this season. His on-ice metrics aren’t great, but that’s a product of the team and not his individual play. But make no mistake. His value matches his counting totals to this point of the season.
Bedard’s even-strength offense has been worth an expected goals above replacement (xGAR) of 6.5. That ranks sixth in the NHL among all forwards, not just rookies. Counting totals determine who wins an individual award at season’s end, but he’s been that valuable to a rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks team. As long as he stays healthy, the Calder Trophy should be his.
Leo Carlsson
The prospect who went second overall to Bedard in 2023, Leo Carlsson has gotten off to a solid start with the Anaheim Ducks. He has ten points (six goals, four assists) in 15 games — a 30-goal, 53-point pace over 82 games.
The Ducks are trying something different with Carlsson, opting for load management early in the season so there’s less of a rookie wall during the stretch run. The early returns suggest that’s been a wise move, as Carlsson has already adapted to North American rinks.
His even-strength offense has been worth an xGAR of 2.4, and though most of his points have come on the power play, he’s played well at five-on-five with an expected goals share (xG%) of 51.95 percent. If the Ducks’ load management plan works as hoped, he could be in line for a big second half of 2023-24.
Pavel Mintyukov
Carlsson’s rookie teammate with the Ducks, Pavel Mintyukov has been one of the biggest surprises among the rookie class through the quarter mark. That’s not to suggest he wasn’t a high-end prospect, but how fast he’s found success in the NHL is a bit surprising.
Mintyukov has 12 points in 23 games, placing him in sixth place in rookie scoring. He’s provided positive offensive value, with his even-strength offense worth an xGAR of 3.2. He’s also played well on the power play, making him an already big part of the Ducks roster.
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It’ll be tough for a defenseman to win the Calder over Bedard, but Ducks fans should be excited about the 6-foot-1, 192-pound blueliner. Mintyukov looks like he has top-pair potential based on his start with the Ducks, and he only turned 20 years old on Nov. 25.
Luke Hughes
If there’s a defenseman who could give Bedard a run for his money, it’s New Jersey Devils rookie Luke Hughes. The youngest Hughes brother has gotten off to an excellent start with the Devils, totaling 14 points in 21 games, placing him second to Bedard in rookie scoring.
The Devils are sheltering Hughes in a third-pair role, but he has feasted in those minutes. He has an expected goals share of 55.87 percent at five-on-five and has not been a liability defensively. In fact, his defensive impacts have been better than his offensive impacts at even strength:
Hughes has already found himself on the Devils’ top power-play unit with his brother Jack. He’s collected his fair share of points on the man advantage; seven of his 14 points have come on the power play. But even then, he has played well at even strength.
It may be early in the season, but there’s a reasonable argument he’s second in the Calder race to Bedard through the quarter point of 2023-24.
Brock Faber
Acquired in the trade that sent Kevin Fiala to the Los Angeles Kings, Brock Faber has already become one of the Minnesota Wild’s best defenders. He’s on pace for 31 points this season, but his defensive game is where he’s made his money.
Faber’s even-strength defense has been worth an xGAR of 3.1, the fourth-best rate among all defensemen in the NHL, not just rookies. The Wild are giving up just 1.99 expected goals per 60 minutes when he’s on the ice at five-on-five.
Faber’s play may be a case of where he still gets top-five and even top-three votes because he’s been that good defensively to start the season and in tough minutes. You could argue he should be in tier 2 based on his production, but his defense has him in tier 1.
Tier 2
Logan Cooley
Bedard and the players above may be the early favorites for the Calder, but who else has the chance to make a run as the season progresses? One potential finalist is Arizona Coyotes rookie forward Logan Cooley, who has 13 points in 22 games. The third overall pick in the 2022 draft has put up points, but there is a difference compared to Bedard and the players listed in tier 1.
Cooley’s underlying metrics suggest there may be a dip in production at some point. His even-strength offense and defense have been worth a negative xGAR, and nine of his 13 points have come on the power play. There’s no long-term concern with Cooley, but I wouldn’t have him in the first tier of Calder Trophy contenders at this point.
Luke Evangelista
Luke Evangelista doesn’t have the same draft pedigree as the other prospects mentioned above, but he’s off to a solid start with the Nashville Predators. The 21-year-old, who was a second-round pick in the 2020 draft, has three goals and 13 points in 21 games — a pace of 12 goals and 51 points over 82 games.
Evangelista has played well at even-strength, with his offense and defense being worth positive xGARs. He’s been one of the Predators’ most efficient five-on-five scorers, averaging 2.28 points per 60 minutes.
Though he only has three goals, all but one of Evangelista’s assists at five-on-five have been primary assists. He’s been a facilitator at five-on-five, a good predictor of future scoring. It’ll likely be tough for him to crack the top three in Calder voting, but he should get some love if he keeps up his solid start.
Connor Zary
Connor Zary began the season in the AHL, so he has fewer games played than other players mentioned here. But he has looked quite good for the Calgary Flames. In just 13 contests, he has three goals and seven assists for ten points.
Zary has been the Flames’ most efficient five-on-five scorer this season, averaging 2.81 points per 60. He’s generating the fourth most primary assists per 60 on the team, and he’s been well above water in xG% at 55.02 percent.
It’ll be hard for the Flames to send Zary back to the AHL with how he’s started the season. If he keeps up his current production and play, there’s a good chance he’ll be knocking on the door of top-three and -five votes for the Calder Trophy.
Dmitri Voronkov
The Columbus Blue Jackets have just five players with an xG% of 50 percent or higher. Dmitri Voronkov is one of those players. The Russian winger has four goals and 11 points in 18 games, putting him on pace for 17 goals and 47 points in 76 games.
With the team struggling to get production from Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine, Voronkov has provided some much-needed scoring. He’s been the Blue Jackets most efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 3.23 points per 60 minutes. His even-strength offense has been worth an xGAR of 3.9, a top 40 number among all forwards in the NHL.
Like Evangelista, it’ll be tough for Voronkov to finish in the top three in the Calder race, but he’s another prospect making a strong impact for his team to start the 2023-24 season.
Matthew Knies
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ farm system isn’t what it was a few years ago, but they still have some young talent who can make an impact. One of those prospects is Matthew Knies, who’s off to a solid start this season.
Knies has six goals and four assists for ten points in 21 games, putting him on pace to finish with 23 goals and 39 points in 82 games. He’s been an efficient five-on-five scorer, averaging 2.02 points per 60. And his impacts have been good, especially offensively.
Knies’ even-strength offense has been worth an xGAR of 4, placing him 39th in the NHL among all forwards. His defensive game has not been great, but that’s far from unusual for a young forward, especially on the wing. The Maple Leafs want him to provide offense now anyway, and that’s what he’s been able to do.
Marco Rossi
Marco Rossi has overcome quite a bit to get to this point. The Austrian forward has six goals and six assists for 12 points to start this season, putting him on pace to finish with 23 goals and 23 assists for 46 points.
Rossi’s underlying numbers have been solid, too. He’s averaging 2.62 points per 60, making him the Wild’s most efficient five-on-five scorer. His even-strength offense has been worth an xGAR of 3.3, and the Wild are controlling play while he’s on the ice.
If Rossi finishes with 20-plus goals and 40-plus points, he will get some respect in Calder voting. It might not be enough to get him in the top three, but a top-five finish isn’t impossible if he keeps up at his current pace.
Honorable Mentions
You probably expected to see Adam Fantilli, the third-overall pick in the 2023 draft, among the top two tiers. But he’s gotten off to a slow start, with four goals and six assists for ten points in 24 games. He’s underwater in xG% and has struggled to score at five-on-five, averaging 1.48 points per 60.
That’s likely the product of 1) being an 18-year-old rookie and 2) being on a team that likely projects to be in the 2024 draft lottery. There’s no long-term concern with Fantilli, but it will take a surge over the next few months for him to get back in the Calder Trophy race.
Other rookies who could receive Calder votes as the season progresses are Philadelphia Flyers winger Bobby Brink and Boston Bruins center Matthew Poitras. Both are producing at 40-plus-point paces, with Poitras on pace for 19 goals and Brink on pace for 17 goals as of this writing.
That speaks to the depth of this year’s rookie class, which is off to an excellent start for the 2023-24 season. Considering they’re rookies, most should continue to make strides as the season progresses, especially if they avoid the rookie walls.
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Advanced stats from Natural Stat Trick, Evolving-Hockey
