An end of one type or another is near for Montreal Canadiens defenseman Mike Matheson. Some say that should be regarding his Habs tenure in that they should deal the 30-year-old when his stock is as high as it is, after he hit a career-high 11 goals and 51 assists (62 points). And there is some justification behind that school of thought, especially with the blue line as crowded as it is on his left side.
Even if the Canadiens don’t make room though, part of the argument stems from the opinion Matheson’s stock can’t get any higher. Anyone suggesting he can or flat out expects him to would be guilty of setting unrealistic goals for him for 2024-25. After all, you’re talking about literally one of the most prolific seasons put together by a Habs defenseman this century. Asking any more out of the guy would be crazy. In that sense, while he may not be one of the likeliest players to regress, he won’t be making this latest list of the likeliest Habs coming off career years to hit another gear, either.
Related: Canadiens with Career Years Who Can Hit Another Gear
Now, as for whether or not it’s the best time to trade the guy, it’s hard to say. However, even if he doesn’t reach new career highs all over again, Matheson can still provide a lot of value to the team over the next two seasons at an incredibly cost-effective $4.875 million cap hit. It becomes more a question of how much value do the Canadiens place on his production, leadership by example and leadership in general compared to the increase in ice time his departure would yield for the team’s next generation, players of whom the aforementioned 2024-25 list almost exclusively comprises.
5. Nick Suzuki
Now, Matheson can obviously prove the analysts wrong. However, someone like Nick Suzuki is simply more likely to, by posting career highs (again). It’s all he’s ever done… get better every year. True, the better he gets, the unlikelier it becomes that he’ll continue the trend, and, having just scored 33 goals and 77 points, he’s getting up there as an undeniably legitimate No. 1 centre.
That having been said, with his linemates just arguably having scratched the surface of their potential… Well, let’s just say no one should be closing the book on Suzuki’s production continuing to climb. Look at it this way: If a 35-year-old Alex Kovalev can hit a point per game for the Canadiens in 2007-08 with a lesser supporting cast, a 25-year-old Suzuki should be able to as well.
4. Cole Caufield
No one should expect Cole Caufield to score more points than linemate Suzuki. That’s not what this ranking suggests. It’s more so a reflection that his 65-point (career-high) season was a disappointment in the eyes of many. Of course, 65 points is 65 points. It’s far from bad overall, but, when there’s hype heading into 2023-24 that you can realistically become the team’s first 40-goal scorer since Vincent Damphousse in 1993-94, expectations are such that you’ll at least flirt with a point per game.
However, after scoring 26 goals in a 46-game, injury-shortened 2022-23, Caufield just barely surpassed that total (28) over a complete season. To be fair, his overall game improved significantly, and, if anyone would have told you five years ago the player the Habs were going to draft in the first round (No. 15 overall in 2019) would be capable of scoring 65 points in a season, you probably would have been satisfied.
So, consider this ranking an acknowledgement that Caufield has successfully convinced everyone he’s a star player in the making who has more to give, specifically this coming season. If he can take just his goal-scoring, which is a forte, up a notch or two, one-upping his point total from 2023-24 shouldn’t be hard.
3. Samuel Montembeault
Goalie Samuel Montembeault’s career year up to this point wasn’t necessarily a “career” year by traditional standards. He went 16-15-9 with a 3.14 goals-against average and .903 save percentage, which are admittedly fairly pedestrian numbers. However, he enters 2024-25 as the team’s undisputed No. 1 for the first time, whatever that’s worth on a team set to miss the playoffs again.
Regardless of how low the Canadiens finish in the standings, they’re logically going to be a lot better based on the development of their younger players (who make up most of the team, one of the NHL’s youngest). That includes their defense, which is poised to improve on its 30th-ranked 33.4 shot against per game.
However, that doesn’t necessarily include Montembeault himself, who’ll be turning 28 years old to start the season. He’s still going to reap the benefits and presumably improve himself, even if largely because his numbers have so much room to improve. No one can deny that or how Montembeault’s numbers don’t really do his overall effort level justice. Maybe 2024-25 is the year everything starts to fall in place all at once for the guy, as his new three-year, $9.45 million extension kicks in, effectively making him the guy.
2. Alex Newhook
Some may argue Alex Newhook broke out last season, with a career-high 15 goals and 34 points in only 55 games. However, in reality, he only really came on upon returning from injury in February, at which point he proceeded to end the season with 21 points in his last 30 games. There’s every reason to believe he can produce at that pace at least over an entire season, starting in 2024-25.
For example, Newhook ended 2023-24 playing with Brendan Gallagher and Joel Armia. Assuming the team stays healthy and the status quo holds intact, he’s going to play in the top six with better linemates, like a Kirby Dach (for whom he effectively filled in at centre while the latter was rehabilitating a knee injury).
And, if the Canadiens trade Christian Dvorak, opening up a spot at centre lower in the lineup for Newhook instead? He’s already proven capable of producing under less than ideal circumstances, just with one additional year of development and experience under his belt. So, the 23-year-old is actually poised to break out in 2024-25… at least to a significantly greater extent than he already has.
1. Juraj Slafkovsky
Much the same can be said for Juraj Slafkovsky. The difference is, in reaching the 20-goal and 50-point plateaus last season as a sophomore, he did break out for all intents and purposes. Having gotten promoted onto the top line with Suzuki and Caufield, Slafkovsky finished the season with 43 points in his last 53 games. If both those players are looking at potential career seasons once again, so is Slafkovsky as a former first-overall pick the Canadiens could only justify moving off that line were the entire front office to fall under the collective influence of some black-market hallucinogen.
The Canadiens are fully invested in Slafkovsky, as they should be. He’s proven to be a perfect complement on that line already at 20 years of age. They don’t really have anyone else who projects as a top-line winger of that calibre to play in that spot (except the just-drafted Ivan Demidov, who’s reportedly staying in Russia for one more season). So, it stands to reason, barring injury (knock on wood), Slafkovsky is staying where he is. That makes the 0.81 point-per-game pace at which he produced over those last 53 games a conservative projection of his capabilities in 2024-25, not even taking account the extra year of development and experience he’ll have under his belt.
It isn’t that the sky is the limit. No one should expect Slafkovsky to develop into a superstar talent based on pretty much every scouting report to surface ahead of the 2022 NHL Entry Draft. However, expecting him to score north of 60 points playing on the top line with two other players who have proven capable of just that? It’s almost a certainty, as Slafkovsky takes the next steps in his career to establishing himself as a cornerstone of the franchise.
