Any suggestion the Montreal Canadiens’ defense will be one of the best in the NHL in 2025-26 should be met with a healthy dose of skepticism. At the other end of the spectrum, rumours of the Habs’ ending up one of the worst teams in the league from a defensive standpoint, to the point it might cost them a playoff spot, have been greatly exaggerated.
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— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) August 3, 2025
Sure, the Canadiens gave up the ninth-most shots per game (29.0) last season. And, while that’s of course far from a recipe for long-term success, there are extenuating circumstances as to why prognosticators should look past that and other admitted red flags (like them being one of the worst offenders in terms of expected goals against per 60 minutes).
It goes well past how the Canadiens overcame those admitted deficiencies on defense to for all intents and purposes shock the hockey world by clinching a postseason berth, one year after finishing fifth from last in the NHL. Generally speaking, there are of course ebbs and flows in performance from year to year to the point a team in a playoff spot one year won’t necessarily make them the next. That’s just the nature of sports. So, the Habs just having finished in the second Eastern Conference wild-card spot can understandably be construed as a sign they’re vulnerable.
Canadiens Replace Savard with Dobson
However, to lean into that line of thinking would be to dismiss the linear growth up the standings (points-wise) the Canadiens have experienced each season since finishing dead last in 2022. This is, according to some sources, the youngest team in NHL history to have made the playoffs that is also poised to be the youngest in the league to start 2025-26. So, the team’s defense, which is anchored by the likes of Calder Memorial Trophy-winner Lane Hutson, is far from at risk of declining.
Related: Canadiens’ Defence Could Be Elite for the Next Decade
In truth, the Canadiens should only get better, especially when you take into consideration the indisputable fact they’re transforming into more of a rush-capable team by effectively replacing the retiring David Savard with Noah Dobson. Critics may point to Savard’s stay-at-home style and defensive awareness as something they’ll miss out on, while Dobson being among the league leaders in turnovers, with one less than Hutson coincidentally enough, could be seen as a drawback.
A few points of contention, though:
- Turnovers tend to depend on the amount of time you have the puck. So, it’s probable a high amount of turnovers is just a reflection of how valuable you are to your team, with Dobson having led the New York Islanders in ice time in each of the last two seasons.
- Hutson, who had the same amount of turnovers as Brock Faber of the Minnesota Wild, isn’t all that bad defensively.
- Hutson only really showed poorly from a statistical perspective when he played with Savard, which was a recurring trend, as no pairing at all comprising the latter had a positive shot share.
Ultimately, in Dobson, regardless of how you feel about him defensively, the Canadiens are getting a top-pairing defenseman. They’re losing a third-pairing one, which only increases their depth to the point it’s entirely possible they play Mike Matheson, a 31-year-old one season removed from having scored 62 points, there instead. No one should have any illusions that Matheson is an incredible defensive defenseman, but his leadership remains valuable, and, despite a single year remaining on his deal before he becomes an unrestricted free agent, he could realistically stay its length as a Hab, considering he’s the type of player teams with an eye on a long playoff run tend to pursue at the trade deadline. The Canadiens may just be in a position to keep him around as a smooth-skating, minute-munching, veteran presence who just so happens to come from the area.
General manager Kent Hughes’ vision should be clear with a corps that comprises Dobson, Hutson and Matheson and to a lesser extent Alexandre Carrier and Kaiden Guhle. He’s moving away from the (David, not Serge) Savardian archetype of a defenseman that became so common in the Marc Bergevin years as a presumed way to insulate Carey Price. He’s moving toward more of a transitional offense some may associate with the Morgan Rielly-led Toronto Maple Leafs, who, not for nothing, gave up more shots per game than the Habs (29.3). So, why should it work for their historic rivals, who led the Atlantic Division, and not them, especially with the Leafs having lost 100-point-man Mitch Marner?
Canadiens a Legitimate Playoff-Calibre Team
Obviously the depth in the Atlantic is an issue. This isn’t a piece on how the Canadiens stack up against their competition. That’s been done. However, it is interesting some may envision the New York Rangers overtaking the Habs as a likelier bet to return to the playoffs at the latter’s expense after having imploded last season. If the debate between the two is a referendum on the strength of the Canadiens’ defense, it’s worth noting the Rangers also gave up more shots per game (29.9). So, who improved more this past offseason? To which team does your vote go?
Ideally, it’s true: Goalie Sam Montembeault shouldn’t have to save as many goals above expected as he did. However, his performance last season showed goaltending can be a strength for the Canadiens instead of a weakness.
In truth, the one glaring (potential) hole the Habs have is down the middle on the second line, but they still managed to reach the postseason without a working one at even strength. The arrivals of Ivan Demidov and Zachary Bolduc should negate any notion that the Habs lack depth up front. The offense should actually be seen as neutral territory at the very least, especially with Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky and Nick Suzuki having formed one of the best lines in the league. Honestly, if defense the is Habs’ “weak” point, they’re in good shape.
Is it possible the Canadiens miss the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs? Sure. Many in the know might disagree though, ironically in similar fashion to how the general consensus had been they’d miss them last season. So, things like these are hard to predict and analysts who believe they won’t are definitely entitled to their opinions. However, just know they’d be betting against a team that has only been getting better over the last few years, including on defense… especially with the acquisition of Dobson this offseason. That’s the difference, in that analysts who had bet against them making the postseason this past spring had seemed to acknowledge the team was still poised to improve and trending in the right direction. Going completely against the grain here is certainly a bold move.
