Ex-Montreal Canadiens defenseman Justin Barron’s time maybe just came. As a former first-round pick who has dressed just 17 times this season, playing a team defense-low 14:43 per game, Barron had simply fallen out of the team’s coaching staff. He obviously had his share of defensive issues and was unable to show enough progression to justify keeping him in the team’s long-term plans, triggering the trade for Alexandre Carrier with the Nashville Predators.
Considering forward (and fellow-former first-round pick) Kirby Dach’s similar struggles, is there a chance the Canadiens pull a similar trigger in the future? Well, there’s always a possibility. However, the Habs shouldn’t for many different reasons.
Dach Regresses Relative to Suzuki
A season after Dach missed all but two games to injury, he has failed to live up to the hype he had built as a result of his play during his 38-point debut in 2022-23 with the Canadiens. He had been widely projected to slot in as the team’s much-needed No. 2 centre, potentially as someone who could eventually eclipse Nick Suzuki and supplant him as the top-line pivot.
Since then, on top of Suzuki having emerged as a legitimate No. 1, Dach has failed to keep pace and has actually regressed. His two goals and nine points in 31 games put him on pace for a 24-point season…numbers similar to the stats that got him traded to the Canadiens by the Chicago Blackhawks at the 2022 NHL Entry Draft, despite having been a still-21-year-old former third-overall pick.
Related: Host Canadiens Steal Show by Getting Slafkovsky, Dach at 2022 Draft
Now going on 24, one year older than Barron, Dach should be the subject of greater concern in some respects, especially in light of his serious knee injury. While athletes have successfully rebounded from the same injury in the past, there’s always the possibility he never regains the same level of momentum and quality of play he had heading into 2023-24. In such an instance, it makes unfortunate sense to recoup some losses and trade him, like they did Barron, when the initial trade for the defenseman back in 2022 has ended up a massive failure (up to now).
Here’s where paths between the two sets of circumstances begin to diverge more and more, though. The Canadiens still need a No. 2 centre. They didn’t need an offensively inclined bottom-four defenseman on the right side. With the emergence of rookie Lane Hutson on the left and Logan Mailloux fitting the same profile as Barron as a defensively lax right-handed “offenseman,” just one who’s exempt from waivers for a while longer, the Habs couldn’t justify keeping Barron around when he hadn’t played himself into the top six… and wasn’t playing much as a result.
Don’t Read Too Much into Barron Trade
Trading Barron, which will presumably give him an opportunity elsewhere (i.e., with the Predators), is actually the best thing for him. As there isn’t a clear rival to Dach’s current second-line centre spot in the lineup, he’ll continue to get ice time and, fingers crossed, slowly but surely regain the swagger that had gotten Canadiens fans so excited about his ceiling initially. And, as the playoffs are becoming less and less of a remote possibility this season, it’s not like the Habs need him to immediately. It would of course be nice, though.
Granted, the Canadiens did just acquire an in-his-prime defenseman in Carrier, in some circles signalling a desire to compete sooner rather than later. However, based on how low Barron’s trade value probably was, it’s almost a miracle they got a serviceable, reliable top-four defenseman, albeit one without nearly as much offensive potential. Carrier only has 2.5 years left on his deal before hitting unrestricted free agency and, while he represents an undeniable upgrade and a step in the right direction towards playoff contention, it’s unlikely a player primarily known for his defensive awareness is going to push the Habs over the top all alone.
Before anyone can definitively suggest the Canadiens are intent on accelerating their timeline, general manager Kent Hughes has to make at least another significant move. It isn’t about deciding against giving up on this season. It’s logically more about giving up on Barron and getting what one has to believe is the most significant return possible right now. More to the point, despite flashes of his potential, Barron had simply never shown sustained success in a Habs jersey like Dach. His trade value was never as high as it was when he was acquired.
Dach vs. Barron
In comparison, a few years ago, after Dach had re-established himself as a player on the rise with the Canadiens, there had been reports he’d be what it would take to land the highly sought-after Pierre-Luc Dubois. Suggestions to that effect were ludicrous in that the Canadiens should have seen Dach as a good fit within the organization at that juncture. Even if they wanted Dubois badly, you don’t just give up a seemingly sure thing, especially at centre.
Things have obviously changed a great deal since that point. However, the Canadiens still wouldn’t trade Dach for Dubois based on how the latter’s career has stagnated, currently on his fourth team at age 26. You also have to factor in Dubois’ massive contract, whereas Dach still has an affordable $3.3625 million cap hit for the next two seasons. To be clear, there’s no presumption of a trade between the Canadiens and Washington Capitals or a trade involving Dach at all. That’s just an illustration of why the Habs shouldn’t be in any rush to trade the guy.
True, Dach is underperforming. True, he’s no longer a sure thing. However, with the exception of Barron being a certainty not to work out with the Canadiens, few players are. Until one emerges, Dach deserves at least the balance of this season to rediscover what seemed to make him one. Realistically speaking, the Habs aren’t going anywhere anytime soon. Neither should he.
