The best guess is the most Montreal Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes does come free agency is sign a depth player. However, even that is a leap, considering he’s got a full roster right now, for all intents and purposes. Of course, to be fair, he’s also proven to go against the grain on occasion (drafting Juraj Slafkovsky for example, last offseason).
Related: Canadiens and 2023 Unrestricted Free Agency Are Bad Mix
Plus, there’s always a chance the Canadiens sustain a critical injury between now and the first few days of training camp, forcing his hand… especially considering their luck over the last few seasons. Thankfully, it looks like the Habs have started taking a proactive approach to preventing another disastrous season on that front, even if it’s unlikely recently let-go medical personnel were a direct reason behind the issues.
Assuming health (or lack thereof) keeps out of the equation as the primary reason to sign someone, what other conditions would prompt Hughes to make a splash? Here’s how the stars would have to align in order for the Canadiens to at least justify a huge free-agent signing:
3. Space to Burn After Mike Hoffman/Joel Armia Trades
It isn’t about cap space necessarily. Obviously the more cap space the Canadiens have the better, but it’s more so about opening up roster space for someone by dropping the least cost-effective players to whom the Canadiens currently have contractual obligations in (arguably) Joel Armia and Mike Hoffman
You could add Brendan Gallagher to the list, but his contract is so untradeable, it’s not worth mentioning, even taking into account the hypothetical nature of this piece. Furthermore, defenseman Joel Edmundson would have to go too, but that’s almost another discussion in and of itself, especially as a trade there is absolutely needed, to make room on the back end, as the Habs are already operating above capacity with nine NHL-caliber defensemen in the mix.
Dealing Armia and Hoffman is a different animal though. Trades are unlikely, but possible as Hoffman has an expiring contract next offseason and Armia still holds value as someone who’s still only 30 with defensive skill/penalty-killing prowess and can at least theoretically score at a 0.5 point-per-game pace.
All that to say, Hughes would have his hands full finding suitors this offseason for even one of the two. It’s also unlikely he’d do it in time for all the big-ticket free agents to remain unsigned, further lending to the craziness of this scenario coming to pass. What’s even crazier is the Canadiens would have to first make an arguably bigger splash on the trade front.
2. Canadiens Acquire Pierre-Luc Dubois (and Connor Hellebuyck)
For the Canadiens to sign someone huge, they’d first have to accelerate their timeline to contend considerably. That really only happens if they revisit a potential deal with the Winnipeg Jets for pending-restricted free agent Pierre-Luc Dubois (and get something done).
Such an occurrence isn’t completely outside the realm of possibility, as there have been rumors of Dubois coming to the Canadiens literally since he was drafted in 2016. So, to take things up a notch, why not add teammate Connor Hellebuyck to the wish list?
To truly be able to contend, the Canadiens also need a legitimate No. 1 goalie, and that’s Hellebuyck (and not so much either Samuel Montembeault or Jake Allen). With Hellebuyck having expressed an unwillingness to re-sign with the Jets come 2024, he could be moved as soon as this summer, improbably to the Canadiens too, but for the sake of argument it’s worth exploring, even if only to be able to then dismiss such a move completely out of hand.
Whereas the Canadiens arguably hold a great deal of leverage in any negotiations for Dubois, they don’t at all regarding Hellebuyck. The Habs were reportedly willing to deal Josh Anderson, Christian Dvorak and a first-round pick for Dubois (from ‘Winnipeg Jets roster decisions: Who stays and who goes this offseason?’ The Athletic, May 20, 2023). Under the again-hypothetical assumption the Jets take them up on this offer now that Dubois has made it clear he doesn’t want to come back like at all, it’s going to take a hell of a lot more to get the Jets to add in Hellebuyck, especially as he’s the superior player.
The Canadiens have a decent prospect pipeline, but objectively lack blue-chip talent in the system. As a result, you’re probably looking at someone significant off the roster going the other way, just for starters. There would come a point where, in a bid to contend overnight, the Canadiens will start becoming weaker overall. Acquiring Dubois AND Hellebuyck, all the while staying attractive to prospective marquee free agents? It’s just not going to happen.
1. Vladimir Tarasenko Signs at a Discount
Ultimately, if the Canadiens were to sign someone, it makes the most sense to go after a top-line right winger, so someone to play with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, someone they lack right now.
In the process, the Canadiens would:
- Fill the right-wing hole left by the outgoing Hoffman and/or Armia,
- Add to their considerable lack of depth at that specific position,
- Allow Kirby Dach to develop at center and
- Drop Anderson (if he’s still around) down to the middle-six role he’s best suited for, all in one fell swoop.
The only big-name free agent who might fit the bill? Vladimir Tarasenko, who probably doesn’t fit it all that much.
Tarasenko’s already 31, coming off a disappointing statistical season and, even though he’s a power forward for all intents and purposes, he isn’t necessarily a perfect complement to Suzuki or Caufield. He’s a pure goal scorer like Caufield, which isn’t a bad thing to have in excess, but, when you’re specifically looking for someone to fit in with the other two, you’re hoping for a different type of player. Sure, they’d still be strong on their skates, but more able to go to the dirty areas… and injuries have undeniably hit Tarasenko hard up to now.
To recap: If you’re at the stage where it’s more a matter of having no choice but to talk yourselves out of signing someone than talking a guy like Tarasenko into signing (when talking a guy like Tarasenko into signing with the Canadiens is probably hard to begin with) you’re probably barking up the wrong tree.
A(n admittedly left-shot) winger like Tyler Bertuzzi probably fits better in that regard… and, conveniently ignoring how signing a non-superstar like Bertuzzi wouldn’t be in the spirit of the piece, would he even ever sign with the Canadiens?
It’s hard to get into players’ heads and determine their motivations, but wanting to play in Canada, even if he’s from Subury, seems to run counter to his brand. Things especially travel bans and minds can always change, but maybe call signing Bertuzzi Plan B, if not Z here.
That’s if there is even a plan to sign someone in the first place, because, again, the premise here is that Hughes would be throwing caution and sense to the wind just by dipping his toes in the free-agent waters. He’s got bigger fish to fry than trying to put the Canadiens in contention this offseason. It’s going to take more of a gradual approach, meaning there will come a time for free agency for the Canadiens, but the two remain a bad mix in 2023.
