The Montreal Canadiens have had a hellish start to the 2024-25 season. As of Nov. 13, they sit 31st overall in the league, tied in points with the Nashville Predators. They have defensive issues; they have problems offensively. The club’s rebuild didn’t take the step forward general manager (GM) Kent Hughes had hoped.
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The Canadiens are “in the mix”, but it’s for a lottery pick and not the playoffs. With the young pieces they have on hand, are they truly a 31st-overall team? No, they do have some problems they need to fix and holes that need to be filled, so they are more of a team ready to pick around 10th overall and not first. The decisions faced by the Calgary Flames GM, Craig Conroy, set Montreal up with some interesting options.
Flames Move Will Impact Canadiens
Calgary has two first-round picks in 2025, their own and that of the Florida Panthers, and Montreal gets to have the highest one of those draft picks. The Panthers’ pick, which was acquired in the Matthew Tkachuk trade is like a Russian nesting doll with conditions within conditions that impact the Canadiens. Part of the issue is that it is also involved in a conditional trade with the Philadelphia Flyers as it is top 10 protected, that pick is almost certainly going to the Flames. This is very complicated, and it’s about to get worse.
This brings us all to the next step, the Flames 2025 first-rounder that Montreal owns from the Sean Monahan trade. This one also has a laundry list of conditions. If Calgary finishes in the bottom 10, Montreal gets the Florida pick. However, that is less likely to happen than was expected this past offseason as the Flames have surprised everyone and are in the mix for the playoffs now. This is where Conroy and his decisions begin to truly affect the Canadiens.
In an exclusive interview with Jim Biringer, Conroy spoke candidly of the impact of the issues around these picks, deals made by Brad Treliving, his predecessor, is having on his ability to improve his team. All of the conditions make it nearly impossible for Conroy to make a deal to add an impact player to his roster as first-round picks are his best trade chips.
“I think, as the season goes on, we’ll have a better understanding of how it’s all going to play out, then we’ll be able to work within those parameters a bit better…. If we’re a younger player we could grow with, that would make more sense to use a first-round pick. I wouldn’t trade for a 31- or 32-year-old, but I’d be willing to move picks for a younger player, for sure.”
– Craig Conroy
These comments and the Flames’ position in the standings point to Conroy doing something that the Canadiens were doing under Marc Bergevin, a reset, or a retool on the fly. The simple fact they aren’t going to be sellers makes it highly likely that the Flames will not finish in the bottom 10 of the league, meaning that pick is likely to end up in Hughes’ hands. Yet he can further leverage that pick, and attempt to trade it back to Calgary, with an NHL roster player, but for the price of a top prospect that fits their team.
Canadiens Are Not Tanking
Elliotte Friedman on 32 Thoughts recently stated that the Canadiens should “hunt for Hagens.” Tanking may be something some fans desire, but it isn’t what the Canadiens need. Don’t get me wrong, Hagens has top-line center written all over him and is likely to go first overall at the 2025 NHL Draft. But if Hughes were to set the team up for failure, after declaring he wanted to be in the mix, would crush the players and prospects he already has with the club and tanking would breed a losing culture.
While the Canadiens are having significant issues with inconsistent play, allowing head coach Martin St. Louis to help them find their way, rediscover their confidence, and become a hard team to play against will have a greater value for a future lineup. The 2025 Draft is deep with centers in the top 10, such as Micheal Misa, Anton Frondell, and even locally-born Caleb Desnoyers. With the current prospect pool and an addition of a potential impact top-six center, Montreal is better served to continue the rebuild naturally.
Canadiens Will Move a Veteran
This doesn’t mean Hughes won’t be trading away veterans by the trade deadline after using them to help insulate and mentor the youth for the better part of the season. Players such as Joel Armia, Christian Dvorak and David Savard are all in the final year of their contracts and while they all have varying degrees of importance for Montreal, none are irreplaceable, even Savard. Yet with the Canadiens having the youngest and least experienced blue line, moving Savard out in a trade would be difficult for Hughes who will place a high value (likely a first-round pick) on the veteran right-handed defenceman.
It has been mentioned by insider Pierre LeBrun who stated that Hughes is still on the hunt for reinforcements. Specifically, Hughes wants to add a veteran defenceman, especially on the right side, but not at any price as he will not sacrifice his long-term plan for a temporary solution. This description fits almost exactly with Savard, a veteran, Stanley Cup champion who can play on a second pair, block shots, kill penalties and insulate his very young defenders such as Lane Hutson.
Montreal is in a rebuild, and that cannot be rushed if it is to be done correctly. Patience for management, and fans, will be needed over several seasons. However, the moves Hughes made two years ago were valuable, but now the value is coming into focus. While he does have decisions to make on his roster, he can look to take advantage of the Flames’ desire to improve now.
