As far as Montreal Canadiens defenseman Justin Barron is concerned, hope for the best, but brace for the worst. Based on initial appearances, it certainly seems as though he’ll end up on the team’s ever-expanding injury list for an extended period of time after taking a hard hit from New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba in the Habs’ decisive 7-2 defeat on Oct. 22.
Argue amongst yourselves as to whether or not the hit merits supplemental discipline all you want. The end result is the same: The Canadiens are down an additional player in the 2024-25 season’s early going, as the team struggles to find its footing, with a 2-4-1 record, begging the question, which has become fairly traditional the last few seasons, which injured Habs player do they miss the most?
Despite playing the game on a pairing with Mike Matheson, Barron has largely been deployed in a support role. An offense-first defenseman, he’s played a seventh-ranked 16:50 per game. So, as tragic as it is to lose him like the Canadiens did, they have larger concerns than replacing him specifically. Here are the injured Canadiens, as of Oct. 23, they miss most in increasing order, in terms of how much impact they’re projected to have once healthy:
5. Rafael Harvey-Pinard
Canadiens forward Rafael Harvey-Pinard had fallen down the depth chart last season, after a successful 2022-23. He had been projected to fill a bottom-six role. Then he got injured in a critical offseason from his personal perspective.
It’s hard to say how Harvey-Pinard would have fared in training camp. However, seeing as the Canadiens kept offseason-signee Alex Barre-Boulet initially, only to eventually demote him to the American Hockey League, effectively giving a roster spot to someone who wasn’t in the team’s bigger plans, Harvey-Pinard logically had something of an inside track to sticking. Even so, based on how the lineup has shaken out up to this point (before all the injuries), it likely still would have been in a fourth-line capacity.
4. David Reinbacher
There are two ways to look at where top-prospect David Reinbacher should slot in here, after he suffered a season-ending knee injury this preseason. On one hand, he was likely headed to the AHL, so his injury probably holds little bearing on how the Canadiens’ season pans out eventually, which is the criterion by which the players on this list are ranked.
On the other hand, Reinbacher figures in the team’s long-term plans to such a large degree, the severity of the injury probably stings to a much larger one. If he doesn’t come back at 100%, there’s an argument he’s suffered the most significant injury of anyone on this list.
Ultimately, in light of Barron’s injury and how the two are both right-handed defenseman, it’s not a huge stretch to suggest Reinbacher could have been in line to get promoted to replace the former. So, with every ensuing injury, the Canadiens’ organizational depth gets tested more and more.
3. Juraj Slafkovsky
Canadiens forward Juraj Slafkovsky could only be out one week (knock on wood). Still, as a top-line forward, his upper-body injury represents a butterfly effect felt all the way down the forward group. For example, Kirby Dach, the team’s second-line centre, got promoted to the top line in his absence. Head coach Martin St. Louis put rookie Oliver Kapanen in his spot in turn.
The exact degree to which Slafkovsky is injured remains shrouded in relative mystery. However, he was the team’s first-overall pick in 2022. As such, he faced higher expectations following a 20-goal, 50-point breakout campaign in 2023-24. Any injury that takes him out of the lineup, for however long, is significant through that lens, as it makes it harder for him to build on his development up to this point.
2. Patrik Laine
The Canadiens’ top offseason acquisition by a mile, the injured Patrik Laine represents a huge hole in the lineup. It’s probably the biggest, at least up front. At the end of the day, you’re talking about a former 40-goal scorer.
Sure, considering Laine hasn’t so much as hit 30 since 2018-19, a return to that exact form wasn’t really expected. However, he’s still just 26 and an $8.7 million player on paper. Canadiens general manager Kent Hughes may not have given up a lot for him, but he also didn’t need to acquire him at all. So, he sees something in the still-in-his-prime Finn.
The Canadiens may not look the part based on their current record, but Laine in the lineup gave them the appearance of a playoff contender. Without his projected output, they’re falling well short.
1. Kaiden Guhle
The Canadiens are obviously falling well short, keeping the puck out of the net too. And, for the same reason Reinbacher ranks as high as he does, as a right-handed defenseman on a side whose depth is being tested, Kaiden Guhle takes the top spot as the player who has emerged as the top option there.
Guhle is a natural leftie. However, the Canadiens have stuck with the odd decision to keep playing him on the right. To a degree, it makes sense with fellow-leftie Lane Hutson making the team out of training camp as a rookie.
Related: Canadiens Will Realistically Keep Hutson in AHL in 2024-25
As a makeshift pairing, the duo has experienced significant success, with Guhle’s all-around play complementing Hutson’s elite playmaking ability. Overall though, the Canadiens have struggled to control play. In fact, per MoneyPuck.com, they’re last in the entire league in terms of expected goals percentage.
Hutson Guhle has a 71 share. Good for the 7th best pairing in the league.
— Brian Wilde (@BWildeMTL) October 15, 2024
*yes small sample yes yes https://t.co/RYOvPVrokj
Laine is seen as a game-breaking, difference-maker. However, he notoriously struggles on defense (based on Corsi For %, CF%, on Natural Stat Trick). Guhle has meanwhile also started contributing more on offense, albeit over a small sample size, with four points in his first five games this season. The Canadiens should him miss him more as a result.
Guhle isn’t expected out long with his upper-body injury. However, the more injuries they sustain, the less likely the Canadiens are to stay competitive and replace each ensuing hurt player by committee. In other words, if it was just Guhle out, they’d be in relatively dire straits. It’s everyone else on this list too though, which helps explain the recent efforts put forth. However, even with Guhle playing, it’s not like they were playing great. So, things need to change, starting with getting healthy… starting with Guhle.
