The Montreal Canadiens now have a very deep forward group, not leaving much room for prospects to come in and make an impact. In a season where the team isn’t expected to compete just yet, that’s not exactly ideal. It is beneficial for the team’s core to start establishing a winning culture, though, as they should improve upon last season with a healthy group and new additions.
Training camp will be a fun and interesting time where there will be lots of battles for spots in the lineup. With the depth the team has at forward, nearly no position in the lineup is secure, and many are up for grabs. Chemistry will be created, and certain players might surprise. The blend of young and old makes things even more interesting as well.
While Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield should be locks for the first-line center and left-wing positions, the right wing and entire second line are up for grabs. There are some players who we know will be playing in the top-six, just without a set spot yet. Let’s look more in-depth at each of the four positions, who will get consideration, and the likely result to start the 2023-24 season.
4 Positional Battles in Canadiens’ Top-6
The Canadiens have eight players who I would give a very good shot or a long shot to get a spot in the top-six to start the season. This doesn’t mean that all can’t earn time in the top-six throughout the season with injuries and other developments. Since two of the three first-line players are accounted for, we’ll start with the first-line right wing.
First Line RW
I believe that there are only two players that have a realistic chance of starting the season on the first line with Suzuki and Caufield, and it’s the two players with the most experience playing alongside both of them – Kirby Dach and Josh Anderson.
While Anderson is a permanent right winger, the Canadiens have the option of having Dach play center, his natural position instead, on the second line. Dach played on the top line with Suzuki and Caufield for 360 minutes at five-on-five last season, and while they are a high-risk, high-reward line, it is definitely a trio that works well together. The line was expected to score just over 15 goals for and allow 15 goals against in their time on the ice together but ended the season with 23 a piece.
While the goals are mostly from their work in the offensive zone, they have less of an impact defensively than the defenders and goaltender does. Suzuki and Caufield have a much lower expected goals for percentage (xGF%) without Dach than with him.
Though Anderson has seen some time on the third line since the Canadiens acquired him in 2020, the Canadiens’ roster, specifically the right wing, doesn’t suggest that he will see any time outside of the top-six this season. That means he should either be playing on the first or second lines.
Anderson didn’t get nearly as much time on a line with both Suzuki and Caufield due to Caufield’s injury. He did, in fact, get 230 five-on-five minutes with Suzuki and other linemates last season. They were generally outshot, and even though the finishing ability is strong, the xGF% wasn’t. It’s not as fair to compare them directly in this sense because of the lack of time together as an entire line.
Second Line C
The first trickle-down effect will come at the second-line center position, as Dach should slot into this role if he isn’t starting the season with Suzuki and Caufield. He did fairly well as the second-line center for the Canadiens last season. He has had enough time to grow, and there’s a little less pressure on his playing behind Suzuki, who logged over 21 minutes a night in 2022-23. There’s probably a little more pressure on the top line to produce alongside the team’s two top scorers, but Dach did impress and put up 14 goals and 38 points in 58 games. That’s a positive step for the 22-year-old who isn’t near his prime yet.
The safe option is to have Sean Monahan serve once again as the second-line center. The Canadiens were right in the playoff race early last season, and it’s no coincidence that when he got injured, they started to falter. He was a cap dump that turned out great for the Canadiens, even earning himself a one-year contract after just 25 games played. He is a former top-line center and can not only handle the pressure, but he proved he still has a scoring touch. He’s a capable two-way player and established. It would take some pressure off anyone else competing for that spot, but I don’t expect him to stay healthy all season anyways, so we’ll likely have this conversation again down the line.
The Canadiens brought in Alex Newhook and definitely realized he was underutilized on the Colorado Avalanche, especially in the playoffs last season, where he slotted in on the fourth line. In Montreal, the third line should be the lowest we’ll see him at any point.
Newhook is young like Dach and has a lot of untapped potential. It might be a big step to have him line up as the second-line center to start the season without getting better acquainted with the team and style of play. He was in early contention for the second-line center role in Colorado before the team ultimately went with J.T. Compher, so with another year of development under Newhook’s belt, it is entirely possible if Dach plays on the top line. The hope is that he is, for sure, a top-six player moving forward.
The final option here is a long shot, Christian Dvorak, just because he has played that role in the past and not so long ago. Last season doesn’t suggest he will, especially with the three options ahead of him. He not only has the biggest cap hit, he has the second-most experience. Realistically, I expect his ice time to decrease once again and to level out as the permanent third-line center.
Second Line LW
The battle for the second-line left-wing positions might be the most interesting and fun to watch and discuss, as two young players can also get added to the mix on top of Monahan and Newhook. One or both of Monahan and Newhook will be playing in the top-six, meaning one of them will have to play the left wing since it’s both their second most familiar position. My preference is to play them with each other on the second line, alternating them at center accordingly. It doesn’t put a ton of pressure on Newhook to spend the entire season at center and, at times, gives him a little relief by playing on the wing and having a little less responsibilities.
The two young players I mentioned that may be in the running are Rafael Harvey-Pinard and Juraj Slafkovsky. Heading into the preseason, both are big question marks. After the 34 games with the Canadiens on the top line, Harvey-Pinard produced and was a success story. He took advantage of an opportunity that arose when there were injuries, more specifically to Caufield.
Harvey-Pinard won’t be playing with Suzuki this season unless something similar happens (not likely), so the second-line left wing would be his absolute max potential. As a seventh-round pick just four years ago, his quick rise has been impressive. He could slot in anywhere on the left side from the second line to even a healthy scratch, but it’s best to keep expectations low for him.
Related: Canadiens Need to Make Room for Youth
Slafkovsky, on the other hand, has much more pressure as a former number-one overall pick. His first year out of the draft didn’t go as planned, but now that he’s healthy and there’s a little more space in the lineup for him, he’s looking to build upon his first NHL experience. He’s another longshot, and the Canadiens will have to see major improvements in his game in training camp to consider him for the second-line left wing. But as a top drafted player, anything lower than the third line will hurt his confidence and development.
Second Line RW
The last position in question, the second-line right wing, also has a few potential suitors to start the season. We’ve discussed Dach playing on the right wing on the top line, but depending on how things shake out, there’s a possibility he could play on the right side on the second line as well, and one of the other second-line center options play beside him.
Brendan Gallagher has not gotten mentioned yet, and that’s because he’s exclusively a right winger and has passed the time when he would get considered for the top line. He’s an option for the second line, even though he played on the third line while healthy last season (with a healthy lineup). He might see time on the second-line right wing because of his experience, but his style of play suits a third-line checking role very well, and there will also likely be a younger left winger to help mentor on the third line anyways.
I like Anderson on the second-line right wing. There might be too much expectation for him to handle on the top line, especially with his limited offensive production. His production and goal-scoring suit the second line well, and the power forward adds size and physicality. Those traits could be beneficial on the top unit, but Suzuki and Caufield need someone a bit more consistent to play beside them. Thus, the perfect place for him is on the right side on the second line.
The longshot to get a spot on the second-line right wing is Slafkovsky again. He will slot in more naturally on the left side but can play on the right side. It would be a big step for him to go from the level he was at last season to winning a second-line role over some of the other options the Canadiens have. This is why he is a long shot. Maybe we’ll see him play a few games in the top-six this season though.
Most Interesting Look for the Canadiens to Start Season
So, with all that said, what is the most interesting look for the Canadiens’ top-six to start the season? We’ve established that Suzuki centers the first line with Caufield on his left wing. To round out that line, Dach worked the best and had the most proven success beside them. That means Anderson should slot in one line lower on the right side, with a combo of Monahan and Newhook at center and left wing. The safer option is Monahan, so they should start there. The trickle-down effect should then see one of Harvey-Pinard or Slafkovsky on the third line left wing with Dvorak at center and Gallagher on the right.
Depending on how Monahan and the team plays, he is the best option to trade at the deadline if the Canadiens are in that position. This will open up more space, hopefully for a younger player to get a better look later in the season.
How do you think the top-six should look for the Canadiens? This is an interesting lineup, and I expect nothing less than a fair amount of line combos throughout the season.
