Early in the first period of Friday afternoon’s (Nov. 29) contest, Detroit Red Wings forward Vladimir Taransenko fired the puck past New Jersey Devils netminder Jacob Markstrom. It was the third straight game that the Devils gave up a goal on their first shot against, and the sixth straight where they let the opponent score before they did.
It’s a theme they became all too familiar with in the 2023-24 season, even leading to a barrage of jokes from the fanbase, who would flood social media every gameday with a sarcastic “1-0, them” – a phrase the Devils had to tweet out 57 times in 82 games (69.5%).
Sheldon Keefe is Unhappy with the Trend
At the start of the 2024-25 season, the pattern seemed to be squashed under head coach Sheldon Keefe. The Devils gave up the first goal just eight times in their first 20 games – a 42.4% cut down on the pace of “1-0 them” tweets sent out by the team compared to last season.
Since game number 20 though, the old habit has creeped its way back. They haven’t scored the first goal once since then, instead continuing to fall into an immediate hole. The Devils have luckily gone 4-2-0 despite that, but as we know from last season, it’s unsustainable to constantly play from behind.
Keefe, clearly aware of this, was not thrilled despite pulling out a win in Detroit: “I just don’t like how we started this game again here tonight. That’s something we’ve got to get addressed, clearly.”
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The Devils now have a minus-4 goal differential in the first period. In the second period and third period combined, that figure is positive-24. At home, where they’re a mediocre 6-4-2, it’s the most drastic: a minus-8 first-period differential, but positive-15 in the other two.
This is the third head coach in the last year that this issue has surfaced with. With that being said, Keefe is in the best position to remedy that.
Solution Is More Likely with Keefe
Before bringing head coaching into the conversation, the Devils are already better suited to fix the issue than last season. The answer is simple: they have better goaltending, better defense and are healthier. Last season was a perfect storm where they didn’t have any of the three going their way, and the results showed. So just based on personnel, this issue shouldn’t last too long. It seems more coincidental and unlucky than anything.
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“1-0 them”
Keefe’s defensive system has completely transformed the way the Devils operate; they’ve cut down on goals against per 60 (GA/60) by about 23% from last season (via Natural Stat Trick). They have three defense pairings that they can fully rely on and could match up against any line at any point. In turn, that makes life easier for the goaltenders.
For example, Markstrom has been slightly worse than the league average with minus-2.9 goals saved above expected (GSAx) this season (via MoneyPuck). But his overall save percentage is still .902% – which is above league average, thanks to the Devils’ defense corps keeping most chances to the perimeter. Just based on the law of averages, even an ECHL backup wouldn’t consistently give up clunkers on the first shot of the game when they have a defense like the Devils’ in front of them. Of those three consecutive “first shots” that the Devils have allowed, here were the percentage chances of those shots being a goal: 1%, 7% and 6%, respectively.
Not that Markstrom has been great, but if he let shots like those in regularly, he’d be giving up 20-plus goals per night. It’s at least mostly a coincidence that they have all gone in right when each game started.
Lastly, Keefe has acknowledged the issue immediately, often bringing it up himself – something that Lindy Ruff and Travis Green didn’t really do. The two previous head coaches often seemed to be out of answers entirely and appeared defeated when it came to the slow starts.
No matter what ghosts of seasons past the Devils have faced, Keefe has been blunt about working on a resolution for those issues. Whether it’s slow starts, home struggles, back-to-back woes, or shoddy goaltending…he hasn’t run from them whatsoever.
If it’s simply a focus issue, it pales in comparison to the issues that Keefe has already fixed, like defensive responsibility. If he remedied those much larger issues, there’s every reason to believe he’ll tackle this one as well.
Does this trend alarm you? Let us know in the comments.
