The list of issues that caused the demise of the 2023-24 New Jersey Devils is rather extensive. Lackluster goaltending, shoddy defense, injuries…that’s just the start. But one element certainly didn’t aid their case, and that’s an inability to consistently stick to forward line combinations.
Crunching the Numbers
Fans on social media had given former Devils’ head coach Lindy Ruff the nickname of “Line Blender Lindy” for exactly that: a constant juggling of forward lines throughout the season. When interim head coach Travis Green took the reins, The Hockey Writers asked him about the lines, and he said, “You’d like to (stay consistent). That’s always the goal when you put a line together.”
Obviously, injuries and trades make it difficult at times to trot out the same lines. The Devils lost a whopping 288 man-games to injury, so it’s unfair to hold them to the expectation of steadiness in their combinations. But all in all, they had 71 different line combinations used (min. 10 minutes ice time) – which was 29th in the NHL last season, just ahead of the Anaheim Ducks (72), Chicago Blackhawks (73) and San Jose Sharks (84) (via MoneyPuck).
While injuries may be a *partial* excuse, Sheldon Keefe and the Toronto Maple Leafs had it worse. They lost 381 man-games to injury – 93 more than the Devils. Nevertheless, Keefe and the injury-riddled Leafs only used 61 combinations – ten less than the Devils did (via NHL Injury Viz). That put them middle-of-the-pack, which should signify a positive uptick for the 2024-25 Devils under Keefe, as long as they’re relatively healthy.
Eight of the 10 teams that used the fewest line combinations made the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The average number of standings points for those ten teams was 101.3. It really is common sense, though. Being able to keep lines together allows time to build chemistry and “click”. It’s a big reason teams like the Nashville Predators were able to find success, despite having fewer “big name” forwards on their roster compared to other squads.
Obviously, it would be ideal to have four combinations and never have to diverge from them. That’s never the case, as the Dallas Stars used the fewest in the NHL, with 39. That still means the Devils used close-to-double the lines compared to the Stars.
Related: Devils Offseason Rankings: Goaltenders, Special Teams, and the Coach
Compare the Devils’ 71 to their 2022-23 season, where their 58 combinations used put them ~10th fewest in the league. And when the 2022-23 Devils did switch them, they were more likely to stick. That team had six line combinations playing over 150 minutes. The 2023-24 Devils had just two.
Alexander Holtz Saga
A definite reason that the Devils used so many lines was when they attempted to figure out where Alexander Holtz slotted into the lineup. The former sixth overall pick had great shooting talent but became a defensive liability at times, therefore never gaining the full trust of the coaching staff. Holtz was used on a whopping 19 different line combinations, playing alongside the following at different points: Erik Haula, Dawson Mercer, Jack Hughes, Curtis Lazar, Michael McLeod, Timo Meier, Chris Tierney, Nathan Bastian, Max Willman, Tyler Toffoli, Ondrej Palat, Tomas Nosek and Kurtis MacDermid. None of the combinations featuring Holtz stuck for more than 65 minutes – equivalent to about six games.
Now, with Holtz having been dealt to the Vegas Golden Knights, it almost feels like a weight off of the Devils’ shoulders. Gone is the nightly narrative on where to slot Holtz, how much ice time he deserves, etc. For that alone, the deal might be worth it. It was a legitimate distraction. Unfortunately, Holtz never found his true place, but the Devils can shift their focus now.
Sure, that doesn’t mean there won’t be other question marks – like whether Ondrej Palat or Tomas Tatar should be in the top-six, or whether Paul Cotter should start on the third or fourth line. But none of those should be as polarizing to a coaching staff as the usage of Holtz.
Preseason & Moving Forward
With the return of Tomas Tatar, preseason will be a good time to experiment with the Tatar, Nico Hischier and Mercer line that was super effective in 2022-23. And while preseason success is certainly not indicative of regular season triumph, it should give Keefe and the Devils a good idea of where to start.
In an ideal world, the Devils face some positive regression on the injury front. But even if they don’t, Keefe has shown that he’s more likely to keep consistency, compared to previous Devils coaches. The Maple Leafs had two lines play over 360 minutes last season…the Devils’ most-used line was deployed for just 265 minutes. As a result, the Keefe-led Devils should be more likely to revert back to consistent winning like they did in 2022-23.
The only thing the 2023-24 Devils did consistently was…be inconsistent. The Florida Panthers created a perfect model for success, which the Devils appear to be following. Those Panthers only used 46 line combinations (third-fewest in NHL) and had five of them play over 200 minutes. The Devils sacrificed some of their rush offense last season, which led to lowered offensive production. When you’re bouncing around and playing with different teammates every night, it’s hard to get acclimated to having that success. All in all, this is yet another Devils trend that I’d expect positive regression from.
