With an 8-6 record, the Anaheim Ducks are one of the early surprises in the NHL season. It’s been an impressive one-year turnaround for a team that was looking for their first regulation win this time a season ago.
There’s a lot to be encouraged about the Ducks. The young players look comfortable in the NHL, allowing Anaheim to have multiple scoring lines for the first time in years. Lukas Dostal looks like a legitimate number-one goaltender in waiting. And as a whole, the team has bought into the defensive systems implemented by head coach Greg Cronin.
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After their victory against the San Jose Sharks on Sunday (Nov. 12), the Ducks are sitting in the Western Conference’s top wild-card spot. Despite their encouraging start, it’s hard to see Anaheim maintaining this pace throughout the season. Their tendency to commit penalties hasn’t hurt them badly yet, but it will eventually take its effect over the course of an 82-game season. Additionally, the Western Conference playoff race is a crowded mess, with upwards of five teams fighting for two wild-card spots.
Ducks’ Troubling Lack of Discipline
If there’s one aspect of play that Anaheim hasn’t improved on from last year, it’s discipline. They’re committing far too many penalties, with their 193 shorthanded minutes ranking third in the league. Radko Gudas and Frank Vatrano are tied for fifth in the league with 10 penalties. Sam Carrick’s three major infractions help make him the third Duck to have over 20 penalty minutes this season. And if there’s been one knock to his breakout season, Mason McTavish has committed seven minors.
Anaheim’s 80.95 percent penalty kill ranks 13th in the league. It’s good enough to be in the top half of the league but not good enough to sustain the number of penalties they’re taking. Not to mention, Dostal has been pretty stellar while shorthanded, with a .882 high-danger save percentage during the penalty kill. That’s one of the higher figures in the league — 13th among goaltenders with 30 shorthanded minutes. I believe in Dostal as Anaheim’s future in net, but it’s fair to expect some regression out of the 23-year-old rookie, especially in the games where the Ducks seemingly can’t stay out of the box.
A Crowded Playoff Picture in the West
Another issue with the Ducks sustaining success will be the top-loaded Pacific Division. Entering the season, it was difficult to imagine usurping the top three of the Vegas Golden Knights, Los Angeles Kings, and Edmonton Oilers. However, the Oilers’ struggles to start the season have created an interesting opportunity. At 3-9-1, they’re nine points behind the Ducks and 12 clear of third place in the Pacific. But in their place, the Vancouver Canucks have been on fire, recording 23 points in their first 15 games. While it’s also fair to question how sustainable their success is, points are the ultimate currency in the NHL. They’re seven points up on the Ducks in a league where the overtime point makes it incredibly difficult to gain or lose ground.
Assuming the Canucks can avoid a devastating losing streak, Anaheim’s clearest path to the playoffs will be the wild card, where they suddenly have to compete with the Central Division. The top of the Central includes the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, Winnipeg Jets, and Minnesota Wild — one of them should finish outside the top three with enough points to earn a wild-card spot. Other early surprises in the Central include the Arizona Coyotes and St. Louis Blues boasting winning records. The Seattle Kraken, a 100-point playoff team from a year ago, rounds out the crowded field for a final bid for the postseason.
Continuing Process Over Results
It shouldn’t be disappointing to suggest the Ducks aren’t ready to make the playoffs yet. There are just a few issues holding the team back, but significantly fewer than there were just a season ago. The Ducks are finally starting to play a brand of hockey that can be successful in the modern NHL, but the rebuild isn’t over yet. Even if they can’t hold on to their playoff spot this year, this has been an encouraging start for a new era in Anaheim.
Advanced statistics courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.