With the second half of the 2024-25 season in full swing, the Anaheim Ducks find themselves in the interesting position of not exactly contending for the playoffs but not wasting away their season in the Western Conference basement either. At 18-21-5, they are seven points behind the Calgary Flames for the second wild card spot, but 11 points clear of the dreadful Chicago Blackhawks for last in the West. A hot streak here or a cold streak there can change things, and either of those can easily come to fruition based on the play of a few key players. Leo Carlsson is one of them.
Carlsson is in the middle of a sophomore campaign that is neither disappointing nor impressive. It just is. Call it the ‘sophomore slump’ if you want. But in the right situation, surrounded by the right players, he can break out anytime and doing so would put himself, and the Ducks, in a much better position to remain relevant in the standings as the rest of the season plays out. Let’s look at why he is someone to watch going forward.
Carlsson’s Lack of Cohesion Is Currently Limiting His Output
In most cases, building a consistently dangerous offensive scheme is a long game. The Ducks have been assembling pieces since 2019 to replace the voids left by franchise cornerstones Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry and rebuild their attack. It began with Trevor Zegras and continued with the development of Troy Terry, the acquisition of Cutter Gauthier, and the drafting of Mason McTavish and Carlsson. General manager Pat Verbeek went out of his way to select Carlsson over Adam Fantilli, which made it clear that he believed Carlsson was the best player for his plans for this club. Why? Because Carlsson is big, rangy, quick, smart, skilled with and without the puck, and loaded with game-changing potential at both ends of the ice. Without question, he is the top-line centerman for this team.
We need to be cautious and graceful here, because he is only 19 and less than 100 games into his career, but Carlsson is not currently treated like he is the top-line center for this team. I draw this conclusion for a number of reasons. First, he is not playing on a skill line. Unlike last season, when he played almost the entire campaign alongside Terry and Alex Killorn, he now finds himself with new linemates on a regular basis. Gauthier, who looked as if he’d begin the season on a line with Carlsson, is no longer doing so. Terry has found chemistry with Frank Vatrano and Ryan Strome and therefore has not played much with the young Swede. The aforementioned Zegras is injured, and McTavish is not the same player as Carlsson and therefore not a skill match for a forward line. It leaves Carlsson in the unenviable position of having to play with different players in an attempt to get him going. Killorn, Brett Leason, Isac Lundestrom, and even Sam Colangelo have filled those roles, but it’s not working.
Second, he is not playing top center minutes, let alone as many minutes as he got in his rookie season. Head coach Greg Cronin has employed an evenly distributed approach to his top forwards in which most of them are playing between 16 and 18 minutes per game. Carlsson and McTavish, at 16:17 and 16:15, respectively, play less than Strome, Vatrano, Killorn, and Robby Fabbri. If you are genuinely trying to see what you have in your two centermen of the future, how do you explain that? They have to earn it, of course, but you also have to put them in more positions to make plays and succeed.
Cronin Needs to Maximize Carlsson’s Speed and Playmaking
The question then becomes, how do you find the right set of opportunities and combination of players that will allow Carlsson to be creative, use his speed, and make plays? Easier said than done, to be sure, but getting more out of Carlsson has to be one of Cronin’s most important tasks in these final 38 games. He is too skilled and too important to this franchise to just be one of the guys. No, he is THE guy, we’re just not seeing it right now because he plays 16 minutes a night with the wrong players.
Related: Ducks’ Greg Cronin Has Options Ahead of Second Year as Head Coach
It might be time to pair him with Terry again. Cronin has stated previously that he loves what he sees from the Terry-Strome-Vatrano trio, but we’ve seen this movie before. One line isn’t enough, especially when it’s hot and cold. Carlsson would be a much more dangerous player if he played with a finisher like Terry or Gauthier.
4 Nations Participation Could Rejuvenate Him
We are less than a month away from the 4 Nations Face-Off, a tournament that Carlsson was selected to represent Team Sweden in. He will be the youngest player for Sweden and in prime position to soak up valuable experience and knowledge from the captains, veterans, future Hall-of-Famers, and champions that litter his country’s roster.
Carlsson’s role on such a loaded team remains to be seen, but it’s possible an experience like this rejuvenates him. It would be hard to imagine this not being a positive experience for him, one he can bring back to the Ducks in mid-February and use to better himself and help this team. I’m betting I’m not the only one who thinks he could use a spark. Look for his participation in the best-on-best tournament to do exactly that. If he doesn’t improve his play before then, that is.
Expect Carlsson to Be a Regular Contributor in Second Half
Carlsson had nine of his 15 points by the Ducks’ 16th game of the season (Nov. 15), a win over the Detroit Red Wings during which he had two assists, leaving him with just six in the two months since. Of the many players that would really help the Ducks if they produced more, Carlsson is the most capable and equipped to do so. The Ducks need to finish their January out strong to stay within earshot of a wild card berth, though, so the clock is ticking.
