A crucial offseason looms as the Philadelphia Flyers restructure their organization with changes at all levels. Head coach John Tortorella won’t be going anywhere after his first season in Philadelphia, and his input in player personnel during the 2023 offseason will be as influential as any other coach in the NHL.
“For me, the next step with this organization is: You don’t start adding players until you subtract them. I think there needs to be some subtraction. Those (topics) will be in discussions at the end of the year.”
-John Tortorella
Ivan Provorov has become one of the most polarizing players on the Flyers. He won the Barry Ashbee Trophy as the team’s best defenseman for the fourth time in seven NHL seasons in 2022-23, but he has not played to his full potential in any of the past three seasons. Interim general manager (GM) Danny Brière has openly talked about a long-term rebuild. Does it mean the 26-year-old will finally be done with a complex situation in Philadelphia after years of rumors?
Provorov on the Ice
Provorov hit the ground running as a workhorse defenseman as a rookie at age 19 in 2016-17. His true breakout season came in 2019-20 after the acquisition of Matt Niskanen to play on the right side of Philadelphia’s top defensive pair. Provorov played just under 25 minutes per night, and a reliable veteran partner allowed him to play a controlled game and post careers best in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) and Corsi For percentage (CF%).
The Flyers entered the 2020-21 season as Stanley Cup contenders, and even after Niskanen’s unexpected retirement, Provorov looked like an up-and-coming Norris Trophy candidate at age 24. Things fell apart quickly in Philadelphia. The team plummeted in an ugly fashion, and their expected top defenseman proved himself incapable of carrying a top pair.
Provorov has struggled for three consecutive seasons. The Flyers haven’t generated enough offense from puck-moving defensemen, and the player they’ve leaned on most has never elevated his game to fill the void. While the absence of a high-end, right-handed partner has certainly worked to his disadvantage, the problems have persisted for too long. He has become careless with the puck with consistent turnovers in the defensive zone, and he doesn’t add the type of offensive value from the point to make him the cornerstone of an effective defensive corps.
Situation with Flyers
The instability of the Flyers’ roster and the disappointing play of Provorov has led to constant trade rumors since the end of the shortened 2020-21 season. The organization and the player have developed a level of disagreement about the reason for the dip in his play. His $6.75 million annual cap hit through 2024-25 isn’t a great fit on an expensive veteran blue line. Elliotte Friedman spoke on Jan. 9 about the need for a change of scenery.
“I heard the player wants it, and I heard the team wants it,” the SportsNet insider reported.
The frustration in Philadelphia has boiled over the top as the Flyers have failed to reach the playoffs in three consecutive seasons. It seems logical with the looming rebuild that a frustrated player with real talent and trade value would move on during an offseason that will bring major changes. A change of scenery looked necessary and imminent even in early January as deadline rumors started to heat up. However, Provorov threw a major curveball into the situation shortly after Friedman’s report.
His decision to skip warmups on Pride Night on Jan. 17 due to Russian Orthodox beliefs sent shockwaves throughout the NHL before other players around the league followed in similar situations. Veterans Scott Laughton and James van Riemsdyk took a major initiative to promote inclusivity for Pride Night, and they avoided any controversial comments when asked about the situation. However, rumblings about Provorov’s (lack of) popularity within the locker room have existed before and after Pride Night.
Undeniable Strengths
The Russian blueliner is a model of durability for NHL defensemen. He’ll finish the 2022-23 season having suited up for 532 of a possible 535 games in his career, and the only three games he missed came from a positive Covid test in January 2021 just before the NHL adjusted pandemic protocols. He has led the Flyers in average time on ice (ATOI) in each of the seven seasons of his career, and his excellent conditioning habits cannot be taken for granted in an organization with disastrous injury problems in recent seasons.
He suffered an injury during a loss to the Boston Bruins on Easter Sunday in a game with almost no impact on the future of the Flyers. Instead of cautiously leaving the game, he fought through the injury and quickly returned to the ice. Tortorella spoke about his defenseman’s unrelenting toughness.
“It doesn’t surprise me. That’s the way he is. (He) doesn’t stay down. A definition of Provy is, I watched him earlier this year. We practice, and he gets cut, pretty good cut. We probably have five more minutes left in practice. He gets stitched and gets out there and probably gets two or three of those minutes. He doesn’t stay down. We can piss and moan as coaches when he struggles sometimes and all that, and he’s frustrating to me at times. But how he handles himself, there’s not too many players that go about it that way.”
-John Tortorella
Tortorella has praised Provorov’s competitive attitude, his willingness to block shots, his work on the penalty kill, and his responsible play in the defensive zone at different points of the season. Provorov has shown flashes of the player the organization hoped he’d become for short stretches in 2022-23. A coach that has emphasized culture, accountability, and competitive drive will not be willing to let a defenseman like Provorov slip out of his hands without a second thought. Regardless of their opinions of him off the ice, it’s unlikely that any member of the Flyers can question his commitment on the ice.
Trade Value
While an offseason trade involving Provorov seems like the logical outcome, it’s not a foregone conclusion. Tortorella and other members of the organization have given clear indicators that Kevin Hayes will be part of the “addition by subtraction” process, but Provorov isn’t on the same terms.
Brière wants to avoid a “fire sale” where all useful veterans get shipped off for any possible return. He needs real value in return for a player who still has value in the minds of the organization and around the NHL. If he can find a trade partner salivating for a talented player like Provorov stuck in an unfavorable situation, he shouldn’t hesitate to pull the trigger for draft capital or prospects. The purpose of a rebuild is to get younger by rearranging valuable pieces to fit the timeline the organization has for contention. The Flyers won’t be contending in two years when Provorov’s current contract ends.
Jakob Chychrun and Hampus Lindholm have been involved in major deals at the past two trade deadlines. The Ottawa Senators acquired Chychrun in March for a first-round pick in 2023 and two future second-round picks, and the Boston Bruins also acquired Lindholm in March 2022 for a first-round pick, two future second-rounders, and two players.
While both top-pair defensemen held better trade value than Provorov, the statistical gap between them isn’t wide. Lindholm averaged just .27 points per game in nine seasons with the Anaheim Ducks before his breakout in 2022-23, and Chychrun averaged .46 in seven seasons with the Arizona Coyotes. Provorov sits at .41 in his seven-year career.
While Lindholm prevented opposing scoring chances better than Provorov in the three seasons leading up to the trade, both defensemen had similar numbers in xGF% and CF%. Chychrun’s play-driving metrics are better than Provorov’s, but both players have had matchup disadvantages on weak teams for long stretches. Provorov has logged significantly more ice time than both players in recent seasons.
Related: Flyers Offseason Trade Candidates: Kevin Hayes
The likeliest trade destination is the Vegas Golden Knights. GM Kelly McCrimmon owned and operated the Brandon Wheat Kings of the Western Hockey League (WHL) during Provorov’s outstanding two-year tenure there. If Brière can take advantage of a tight cap situation in Vegas, he could kickstart the rebuild in Philadelphia with a substantial return package.
However, the Flyers will carefully consider the notion of addition by subtraction when they weigh the value of trading the defenseman who has played top minutes for them for a prolonged stretch of time. The competitive spirit isn’t lost on an organization determined to reestablish its culture, regardless of how bumpy the road has been with Provorov in recent seasons.
All advanced stats apply to 5-on-5 play, courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.
