Based on every preseason conversation, prediction, and projection, the New York Islanders enter 2024-25 as a borderline playoff team. This means that if everything goes well, they will sneak into the playoffs as a wild-card team. Can they go on a deep playoff run? It’s doubtful. The past two seasons have proved that, and the offseason didn’t change much for the Islanders, either.
The question is if a wild card appearance is enough and, frankly, is that the goal for the Islanders? The answer for General Manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello and everyone underneath him should be no. The goal is to win the Stanley Cup, but the Islanders don’t yet have the roster to do it.
The reality is that the Islanders must make some changes both on and off the ice to make themselves Cup contenders again. If they want to become one of the elite teams in the Eastern Conference, they must make some big moves or adjustments.
Islanders Must Add a Versatile Top-Six Forward
This has been a big issue for years. The Islanders have great skaters in the top six and players who can provide good offense. However, they lack versatility in that group. This is particularly a problem in the playoffs when teams force the Islanders to adapt, and they can’t. It’s one of the reasons they lost to the Carolina Hurricanes in six games in 2023 and five games last season, both in the First Round.
Related: 4 Islanders’ Player Combinations That Will Make or Break 2024-25
The good news is that Mathew Barzal is becoming that type of player. He’s always been a dynamic playmaker with speed and skill to set up scoring chances, and now that he’s shooting more, he’s becoming an elite top-line skater. The problem is that the Islanders need another forward to add to the offense. They signed Anthony Duclair this offseason, but he won’t add versatility, at least not at the level to put the Islanders over the top.
So, where will the Islanders find one of these players? Lamoriello must make a splash at some point this season and add one before the trade deadline. The 2025 free agency class has plenty of stars, but don’t expect any of them to be traded, and certainly not to the Islanders. Mitch Marner is a great playmaker but won’t find the back of the net himself. Mikko Rantanen is one of the best forwards in the game, but the Colorado Avalanche will look to keep one of their core players on the roster long-term.
The players that could take the Islanders to the top of the conference will likely be unavailable for a trade. They will be on contending teams, and more importantly, they will likely re-sign with their teams to remain key parts of the roster moving forward. As a result, Lamoriello must take a swing on a second-tier star, and considering he hates taking risks or big swings at the trade deadline, it’s unlikely that will happen.
Islanders Must Buy Into Roy’s System
The irony is that the biggest X-factor for the Islanders is head coach Patrick Roy. He turned the team around after he was hired midseason to get them to the playoffs, and more importantly, Roy has the Islanders playing balanced and structured hockey.
Now, Roy has a full offseason and training camp to work with the team. Like Rick Tocchet, who was hired halfway through the 2022-23 season and transformed the Vancouver Canucks into a juggernaut in the Western Conference, Roy can do the same on Long Island. He will have the players buying into his system and hit the ground running to start the 2024-25 season.
If the players buy in, the Islanders will be great in all facets of the game. They will have a great defense that can shut down just about any offense, remain potent on the attack and be capable of running up the score at any point. The subsequent effect will be the Islanders finishing near the top of the Metropolitan Division and Roy likely winning the Jack Adams Award.
Dobson Makes 2024-25 His Breakout Year
Lamoriello didn’t sign Noah Dobson to a long-term extension this offseason (although with Lamoriello, it can happen minutes before puck drop on opening night). Instead, all signs point to him waiting until the 2025 offseason to re-sign the defenseman who will be a restricted free agent. This is a bet that the Islanders and Dobson are making. A tough season will lower his price tag, but a great season will force the Islanders to pay up and sign him to a long-term deal in the same price range as the other top-tier defensemen in the league.
Dobson has become the Islanders’ best defenseman, but he’s also the primary playmaker from the point with 36 goals and 134 assists in the past three seasons combined. If he starts shooting the puck more and taking advantage of the open looks at the point, he will have one of those historic seasons. There’s a world where Dobson scores 20 goals and 70 or 80 assists to make the offense one of the best in the league while also making a strong case for the Norris Trophy.
The Islanders will be one of the best teams in the NHL if Dobson plays at a Norris Trophy level and impacts the game in all three zones. With a remarkable season, he’ll have the team finishing near the top of the standings and in the same tier as the other great teams in the league. Every Cup-contending roster has a defenseman who can do it all (some teams have multiple defensemen like that), and Dobson can be that skater for the Isles.
Islanders Add a Young Scoring Presence
The Islanders have needed a young scoring presence for years but have yet to find one. Many teams are reinvigorated when they add a youthful scoring presence that brings a new dimension to the offense and opens up a new contention window for an aging lineup. The Pittsburgh Penguins saw it happen with Jake Guentzel. The Boston Bruins had it happen when David Pastrnak joined the team. The Dallas Stars got that boost from Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston. The Islanders need it from one of their prospects.
The problem is the Islanders don’t have a great farm system, and their top forward prospects, Cole Eiserman and Danny Nelson, are still a few years away from joining the NHL roster. So, this is a bet on William Dufour or Matthew Maggio, the two NHL-ready prospects, bursting on the scene and becoming stars on the roster. It’s unlikely that happens, but it will go a long way if either one can do it. The Islanders have a lot of forwards in their 30s, and adding a young player to the mix will make the offense a faster and more dynamic group.
Sorokin & Varlamov Are a Dominant Goaltending Duo
The one advantage the Islanders have is their goaltending unit. If they use it correctly, that is. Teams around the NHL are struggling to find competent starters, and the Islanders have two. If deployed correctly, they can singlehandedly lead the team to the top of the Eastern Conference.
Ilya Sorokin is a Vezina Trophy-caliber goaltender, which he proved in the 2022-23 season. The catch is that he can’t be overworked, which the Islanders learned from last season’s disappointment. He can be the prominent starter, but he needs Semyon Varlamov to start more games, especially when the Islanders are playing the second game of a back-to-back.
How Roy deploys his two goaltenders will make or break the Islanders’ season. If there’s any coach who knows the limits and the ideal workload of an elite goaltender, it’s Roy, a Hall of Famer who was in net for 19 seasons. He rolled with Valramov down the stretch last season to get the Islanders to the playoffs, but if Sorokin is playing at a high level, he will be the one starting in net this season. Lamoriello bet on the position when he re-signed Varlamov and extended Sorokin in the 2023 offseason. This season is when that bet should start to pay off, as the duo can give the team an advantage every night.
Other Routes For Islanders to Become an Elite Team
The Islanders still have question marks surrounding the bottom six and the third pairing. If they address both issues, they will close the gap on the top teams in the conference.
In the bottom six, it’s all about finding offense. The hope is that Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anders Lee can form good chemistry together. Pageau is a pass-first player, and Lee is a finisher in the crease, making a connection between the two a possibility. Then there’s Kyle MacLean on the fourth line and his ability to create more in the offensive zone.
The defense not only needs to find reliable skaters (after Dobson and Alexander Romanov) but also another scoring presence. For the first issue, all eyes are on Adam Pelech, Ryan Pulock, and Scott Mayfield returning to form. The other problem can be solved by acquiring a two-way player like Jakob Chychrun at the deadline.
The Islanders are good enough to make the playoffs, and if a team sneaks in, they will always have a chance to go on a run. Their roster isn’t good enough to make that deep playoff run and won’t be until a big change happens. It can come from anywhere, but the Islanders must look different as the upcoming season unfolds if they hope to win the Stanley Cup.
