The New York Islanders hosted the Ottawa Senators on Tuesday night to wrap up their season series. The game was uneventful as both defenses stepped up and aside from an Adam Gaudette goal in the second period and an empty-net goal, the offense was nonexistent. The Senators won the game 2-0 to land within reach of a playoff position in the Eastern Conference.
The game was a reminder that the Senators could finally return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Their future looks brighter than it has in a while, and for now, it looks better than the Islanders’ future. However, it’s not a given that the Senators have a better outlook, especially if the Islanders make a few big moves in the coming weeks.
Senators Are on the Cusp of the Playoffs
If any group can get the Senators back to the playoffs, it’s this one. The offence has been underwhelming, but the talent is there, with Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Drake Batherson leading the top six. The defence is also solid, with Thomas Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Nick Jensen leading the way while Tyler Kleven and Artem Zub round things out.
Better yet, the Senators not only look like they have their starting goaltender for the future – as Linus Ullmark is having a great season – but they might also have found their backup. While Ullmark recovers from an injury, the team has turned to 22-year-old Leevi Merilainen, who shut out the Pittsburgh Penguins on Jan. 11 and the Islanders last night. While young goaltenders are unpredictable, he’s been a steady option for the Senators, giving them a reliable duo to lean on when Ullmark returns.
With a 22-18-3 record, the Senators are still one point out of a wild-card spot, but if they sneak in, they can go on a run. With their skill and physicality in the top six, a defense with no glaring weaknesses, and an elite goaltender in Ullmark, they are not only built for the postseason but set up to succeed for years to come.
Islanders Tough Path Forward
The Islanders pushed to keep their contention window open, and it has come back to haunt them. General manager (GM) Lou Lamoriello doubled (if not tripled) down on his core, and the time is lifeless, sitting in last place in the Metropolitan Division. The shutout loss on Tuesday wasn’t a one-off – they’ve been shutout six times this season.
The lack of offense is due to a roster depleted of talent or, more accurately, players weighing them down. Matt Martin has played in 23 games this season, with one assist. Casey Cizikas and Kyle MacLean have both played 43 games as staples of the fourth line, with six goals and four assists combined. Only four skaters have 10 goals or more, and the offense is averaging only 2.60 goals per game. The offense doesn’t tell the full picture, but it reflects a last-place team.
That said, the Islanders have a good path to reset if they choose to take it. While Lamoriello isn’t the type of GM to rebuild or retool, the Islanders can still take that approach, if not at the trade deadline by the offseason.
Islanders’ Could Retool Quickly
It’s possible Lamoriello will no longer be the Islanders’ GM by the summer. He’ll likely be the one making moves at the trade deadline, but that might be his final task, especially if he decides to stand pat, as he’s done before. If Lamoriello is replaced, the Islanders could easily retool.
They have a handful of bad contracts that have prevented them from making trades, but they can move on from most of them by next season. Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri head to free agency this offseason, while Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anders Lee head to free agency after the 2025-26 season (Cizikas is a free agent in 2027, as well). If the Islanders move on from those veterans while also trading either defensemen Adam Pelech or Ryan Pulock, then they have a new core and more cap space to build around.
Suddenly, the Islanders could look like a contender without overhauling the roster. By the start of 2025-26, they would have Mathew Barzal and Bo Horvat leading the forward unit, while Noah Dobson, Alexander Romanov, and Isaiah George lead the defense with Ilya Sorokin in net. That’s a good starting point to build around, with young skaters in the pipeline or with some free-agent signings. The Washington Capitals retooled on the fly with the help of smart offseason moves and some help from within while keeping their core intact, and the Islanders could do the same, assuming they are willing.
Senators Have the Higher Ceiling
Comparing the Islanders and Senators comes down to their stars. Both teams have top-heavy rosters that lack depth. While that might leave both teams out of the playoffs by April, their elite talent will determine how far their team will go this season and into the future.
The Senators’ core players are more talented than the Islanders. Yes, Barzal, Horvat, Dobson, and Sorokin are talented, but they can only take a team so far. In the past two seasons, the Islanders, with everything going right, reached the playoffs but were easily eliminated in the First Round. The Senators have a group led by Tkachuk, Stutzle, Chabot, and Ullmark that can reach the postseason and make noise once they are there.
Abraham Lincoln said, “The hen is the wisest of all the animal creation because she never cackles until the egg is laid.” Senators fans won’t celebrate a playoff berth until their team officially clinches a spot. However, the future looks bright, and there’s reason to believe that the team is set up for success.
