With their 7-4 win against the Florida Panthers on Nov. 23, the Colorado Avalanche played their 21st game of the 2024-25 season and officially crossed the quarter-mark of the campaign. The team improved its record to 12-9-0 with the win and now sport a points percentage (PTS%) of .571, ranking 15th in the league at the current juncture.
Since starting the season with four straight losses while being outscored 25-13, the Avalanche have gone 12-5-0 in 17 games with a plus-10 goal differential and currently sit in the Western Conference’s first wildcard spot. The team has stayed afloat amid choppy waters through October and November, so let’s dive into the five key takeaways of the impressive start to the campaign at the quarter-mark.
Colorado Decimated by an Avalanche of Injuries
No discussion of the Avalanche’s fortunes this season can be had without first addressing the elephant in the room. According to NHL Injury Viz, only the San Jose Sharks and the St. Louis Blues have amassed a greater cumulative Cap Hit of Injured Players (CHIP) than the Avalanche through the first month and change. While Colorado has recently seen several of its charges re-enter the fold, the season-long tally of missed games handily explains the team’s middling record thus far:
| Player | Games Missed |
|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog | 21 |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 17 |
| Jonathan Drouin | 16 |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 12 |
| Ross Colton | 11 |
| Miles Wood | 7 |
Landeskog’s long-term injury recovery is well-documented at this point, and the date of his return is as murky as ever. Nichushkin was recently reinstated following his six-month suspension for violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program. Drouin, Lehkonen, and Wood all have returned to the lineup after multi-game absences, while Colton is nearing the conclusion of his six-to-eight-week recovery timeline after breaking his foot at the end of October.
Those injuries collectively robbed the Avalanche of virtually their entire top-six forward group, and most of their top-nine core. Each of Chris Wagner (12 games played), Matt Stienburg (eight), T.J. Tynan (seven), Calum Ritchie (seven), and Nikita Prishchepov (six) played notable roles over the first two months, a much greater level of involvement than expected of American Hockey League (AHL) tweeners and NHL rookies prior to the season.
It’s a testament to the team’s depth that the team has a positive record despite the injury crisis, but it’s a situation many in the organization would have liked to avoid.
Goaltending Carousel Not Paying Dividends
Beyond the lengthy injury list, the Avalanche’s goaltending has been the biggest story of the season, for better or for worse. Alexandar Georgiev (12), Justus Annunen (10), Trent Miner (one), and the now-departed Kaapo Kahkonen (one) have all split duties in the crease through the first quarter of the season. As a unit, the quartet collectively boasts a .861 save percentage (SV%) – the worst team-based mark in the league. Only Miner owns a SV% greater than .900, and he’s only played 35 minutes. Total.
Related: 3 Avalanche Goalie Trade Targets to Replace Georgiev
The current goaltending conundrum is an extension of last season where Georgiev, despite playing 63 games (second in the NHL) and winning a league-leading 38 games, owned a .897 SV%. That mark was well below average for an NHL starter and ranked 51st among qualified goalies (minimum 10 games played). He’s carrying a .874 SV% (56th among goalies with at least five games played) and a minus-5.5 goals saved above expected (GSAx) in what has been a rocky contract year for the 28-year-old, with his Avalanche future in doubt.
Georgiev has played much better since the start of November with a .915 SV% and a plus-3.8 GSAx, but the inconsistency in his game is concerning for a Stanley Cup hopeful. It’s the reason why rumors about trading for a goalie have swirled around the Avalanche this early in the season, and why the crease is by far the team’s biggest weak point.
Avalanche’s Superstars Driving the Bus
Recent research suggests that the presence of star power is a greater factor in playoff success than depth (from ‘In the NHL playoffs, what’s more valuable: Star power or depth?’ – Dom Luszczyszyn – The Athletic – 03/22/2023). Fortunately for the Avalanche, their resident superstars are living up to the designation.
Reigning Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon leads the league in assists (28) and points (35). Norris Trophy hopeful Cale Makar has reached another level and paces all defensemen with eight goals, 22 assists, and 30 points. Two-time 40-goal scorer Mikko Rantanen is tied for third among all skaters in goals (14) and points (32), just in time for a lucrative contract extension. Those three carry the second-, 30th-, and 34th-highest cap hits for the 2024-25 season respectively, and have met or exceeded expectations thus far.
Injuries have kneecapped the Avalanche’s depth in the early going, but Colton (0.9 points-per-game), Casey Mittlestadt (0.86), Drouin (0.8), and Lehkonen (0.78) have all approached point-per-game production in limited action. Once the team returns to full strength, the Avalanche juggernaut could roar to life.
Avalanche Dominating Puck Possession at Five-on-Five
Despite the Avalanche sporting a middling minus-2 goal differential, they have been winning the shot and scoring chance battle on most nights. The goaltending woes have been explored and should shoulder the blame for an otherwise sturdy underlying process at five-on-five.
| Statistic | Avalanche | NHL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 54% | 6th |
| Expected Goals | 53% | 5th |
| Scoring Chances | 55.9% | 2nd |
| High-Danger Chances | 51.5% | 12th |
The Avalanche have built their sparkling possession numbers upon a foundation of defensive excellence. The team ranks sixth or better in terms of shots (SA), expected goals (xGA), and scoring chances (SCA) against per-60 minutes at five-on-five, and that’s been accomplished against the backdrop of the aforementioned injury crisis.
Those metrics can be owed to head coach Jared Bednar not asking too much of his inexperienced call-ups and playing a more cautious, low-event style until his forward group returns to full strength. With the lineup looking better with each passing game, expect a return to a more high-tempo style, though the team hasn’t exactly sacrificed its offensive philosophies with above-average shot and chance generation numbers.
Avalanche Playing Disciplined Hockey
Since the start of the Makar era (2019-20 regular season), the Avalanche have the best net penalty differential (plus-169) in the league, 39 better than the Winnipeg Jets in second (plus-130). They have ranked eighth or better in each of those six seasons including this one, and third or better four times.
Colorado has continued that trend and continued to play disciplined hockey by boasting a plus-11 mark this season (third in the NHL), and have made undisciplined teams pay with their red-hot power play (second at 30.3%).
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Despite having taken the 15th-most penalties over that span, the Avalanche’s positive differential is driven by drawing the fourth-most penalties during the same time, an under-discussed aspect of team success. That mark can be owed to having Nazem Kadri (fifth in penalties drawn since 2019-20), MacKinnon (ninth), Rantanen (24th), Miles Wood (53rd), and Makar (95th) playing multiple seasons in Colorado over that time.
The best Avalanche player by penalty differential over the past six seasons? MacKinnon at plus-83. The worst? Kurtis MacDermid at minus-32. Given their respective playing styles and roles on the team, those results are not surprising.
Avalanche Positioned to Make Deep Playoff Run
Despite all of the obstacles that the Avalanche have been met with to start the season, they currently occupy a playoff spot and are within striking distance of one of the Central Division’s three automatic postseason slots. The teams in front of them are among the best in the league (Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota Wild, and the Dallas Stars) and are unlikely to cede much ground for the rest of the season.
Yet, if the Avalanche have stayed in contention in spite of adversity, the remaining three-quarters of the campaign could see the team climb to the top of the NHL food chain with a full-strength squad. Reaching the heights of the dominant 2021-22 Stanley Cup-winning team might be difficult, but this iteration might not be far behind.
Data courtesy of Evolving Hockey, Natural Stat Trick, and the NHL.
