Maple Leafs’ Defence Predictions for Game 1 of the Playoffs

With only three games left in the Toronto Maple Leafs season, Leafs Nation still doesn’t have a good idea of what the blue line will look like when Game 1 of the playoffs starts. Part of the reason is that the team has struggled with injuries, and they have had to do some major patchwork to make the defence core competitive.

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During that time, though, one question was answered, whether Simon Benoit would be a key piece to the back end. Unfortunately, other questions are still up in the air, and the pairings are still up for speculation. With that, let’s get into what the Maple Leafs’ defence core could look like in Game 1 of the playoffs.

Rielly & Lyubushkin

This one may be an unpopular opinion in Leafs land, but Morgan Rielly and Ilya Lyubushkin should start Game 1 of the playoffs together. The key here is Rielly; the team needs him to be the best possible version of himself when the playoffs start. How does that happen? It seems to play him alongside a very defensive-minded player, and typically he is a stay-at-home blueliner. Examples of this would be Luke Schenn, Ron Hainsey, and the aforementioned Lyubushkin, all of whom have done well with Rielly as a pairing. 

Morgan Rielly Toronto Maple Leafs
Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

This pairing allows the Maple Leafs to use their other pairings in more of a shutdown role while using this one as more of a top pairing that plays alongside the top stars, which gives Rielly the chance to produce offensively. Last season’s playoffs saw the importance of Rielly and how the team needed him to be able to find success and win rounds. In 11 games in the 2023 Playoffs, Rielly had four goals and eight assists for 12 points, which played a very important role in them making it out of the first round for the first time since 2004. 

Benoit & McCabe

Benoit and Jake McCabe are a must for the Maple Leafs pairings. These two will be crucial to the team’s back end and have been one of the best pairings for the team this season. Benoit started the season as an extra who struggled to get into the lineup. Now, he is a mainstay on the blue line and has quickly become a fan favourite. McCabe also seems to be a fan favourite; he plays hard, and that doesn’t go unnoticed by Leafs Nation. This pairing is an angry, hard-to-play-against duo built for playoff hockey. Especially when the gamesmanship starts and players are attempting to try and get into the goalie’s head, this is where these two will shine.

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They love to hit, block shots, and break up the cycle, and they will most likely be tasked with shutting down the top line of their first-round opponent. The pairing has 448 hits and 220 blocked shots; Benoit has 235 hits and 95 blocks and McCabe has 213 hits and 125 blocks. This is what playoff hockey is about, sacrificing your body for the team, which is what we will see from them. The potential first-round series matchup is against the Florida Panthers, who are a scrappy team. Last season, there were times when the Panthers were allowed to get away with questionable things. The team had no physical response, but this season it is different, especially when this pairing is out there together; they will stick up for their teammates and goalies. 

Edmundson – Liljegren/Brodie

Lastly, Joel Edmundson could have two partners in the first round, but in Game 1, it wouldn’t be surprising if Timothy Liljegren gets the nod. He would be the other right-handed shot in the lineup besides Lyubushkin. Regardless of whether he deserves to start Game 1, the fact that he shoots right could play a big role in their decision to start him. Liljegren also had experience playing with Edmundson before both of them were injured. Keefe could also look at putting Liljegren back into the lineup because he can play on the power play, whether it be unit one or two; he has the second most experience on the blue line playing on the power play. 

As for T.J. Brodie, he has struggled badly this season. He had gone through some personal adversity just before the start of the season, which would play a major role in most people’s struggles. However, nothing has been said that can be linked to the struggles, given the fact that he has gone through some very serious personal issues. I don’t feel that we should be able to rip him apart based on his play and his season. With that, all I will say is that he has struggled this season, and could find himself sitting out Game 1. As for Edmundson, he is a playoff hockey player through and through. He loves the cross-check; he loves to make opposing players’ lives hard in front of the net and into the corners. This is exactly what the Maple Leafs needed heading into the playoffs, and that is why general manager GM Brad Treliving went out and paid the price he did. He could easily be the quiet MVP of the playoffs for the team based on what he will bring to the lineup game in and game out.

In the Press Box

This leaves one of Liljegren or Brodie, Mark Giordano, and Conor Timmins as the depth defencemen for Game 1 of the playoffs. This doesn’t mean that they will be sitting for the entire series or playoff run; it simply means that a collection of these three players will be sitting in the press box to start Game 1. With that said, this is just my opinion, but personally, it would be Brodie who sits to start the series. The reason for that is that, yes, he has shown that he has played better since being healthy scratched earlier, but he still seemed to not be himself. The Maple Leafs need to win, so they need the best possible six blueliners out there to do so, and Brodie may be the seventh-best defenceman on this team right now.

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The other reason is that the team will want at least one other right-handed shot in the lineup, and that would be Liljegren. It is unlikely that the Maple Leafs start the playoffs with only one right-handed defenceman and sit their second right-shooting blue liner. As for Giordano and Timmins, their time will come when injuries happen. They most likely won’t be a go-to filler if someone is playing badly, but if there are a few injuries during the playoffs, they can jump into action and be serviceable NHL defencemen for the time being.

All in all, there will be a lot of moving parts over the next week. The Maple Leafs will most likely experiment with different defence pairings over the next three games until they decide on a few that work. At the end of the day, if these pairings aren’t the ones that Keefe uses in Game 1, I at least hope that Benoit and McCabe start together, because that pairing has been a fan favourite almost all season and will only get better when the playoffs start.