As the NHL season nears, all the analysis, speculation and projections that the off-season brings ultimately boil down to one question: have the Toronto Maple Leafs improved? That’s a tricky question to tackle at any juncture of an 82-game campaign, much less before a single puck has even dropped on the 2024-25 season.
Part of that challenge stems from the fact that there’s no accounting for key, critical factors in performance, such as internal development or decline, injuries and the relative development of the Maple Leafs’ opponents. One thing that could help glean insight, however, is assessing the roster turnover, looking at who’s in, who’s out and who is occupying which roles this season as compared to the last.
Rudimentary and over-simplified? Sure. But it also enables a re-framing of the team based on what they were and what they are now. After all, just because the ‘Core Four’ all remain in place does not mean that the organization hasn’t undergone any meaningful change since last spring’s first-round playoff ouster against the Boston Bruins. As Oct. 9 looms, let’s take a look at who has replaced who in the Maple Leafs lineup and if the club is better or worse for it.
In: Chris Tanev, Out: T.J. Brodie
Back in July, our own “Old Prof” performed a detailed analysis of Chris Tanev vs. T.J. Brodie, comparing one gritty 34-year-old veteran defenceman to another. Pointing to being superior defensively in both actual and expected goals against despite playing for a weaker team, the Prof ultimately concluded that Tanev was a considerably better player at this stage. The East York native has continued to improve into his mid-thirties, while Brodie clearly demonstrated that he had lost a step last season, even as he averaged 21:43 of ice time to finish second among Leafs’ skaters.
If Tanev’s play doesn’t crater in light of his move from the Dallas Stars to Toronto, then this marks a clear positional upgrade for the Maple Leafs. Based on Brodie’s level of play last season, the new Chicago Blackhawk certainly would not have been entrusted to occupy a slot alongside Morgan Rielly on the team’s top defensive pairing, which is exactly where Tanev is expected to debut.
In order to bolster their blue line with Tanev, the Maple Leafs had to offer a six-year deal, which will take him to his age-40 season, at $4.5 million per. Brodie’s annual cap hit of $3.75 million wasn’t that far off Tanev’s, but he is only on the books in Chicago for two seasons, a critical distinction. We don’t know what Tanev’s contract will look like over time, but he currently represents a notable upgrade at a time when the organization still holds championship aspirations.
In: Anthony Stolarz, Out: Ilya Samsonov
As with signing Tanev to replace Brodie, the Maple Leafs opted to sign Anthony Stolarz as the club’s second goaltender over Ilya Samsonov to offer more certainty and better stability. After two up-and-down seasons in Toronto, no one was quite sure what Samsonov would offer in either a backup or tandem role with Joseph Woll. So, general manager (GM) Brad Treliving went out and landed Stolarz, arguably the best backup in the league last season for the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers.
If we’re looking at their respective 2023-24 performance, this is a clear upgrade. While Stolarz was excelling in a backup role to Sergei Bobrovsky, putting up a 16-7-2 record, .925 save percentage (SV%) and 2.02 goals-against average (GAA), Samsonov was enduring a career-worst season (.890 SV% and 3.13 GAA despite a 23-7-8 record). The question, though, comes down to whether Stolarz can extend that performance over a greater workload. Woll still only has 36 career NHL games to his name, so Stolarz will likely be expected to man the pipes for far more than his career-high 28 games with the Anaheim Ducks in 2021-22.
In: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Out: John Klingberg
In one of the few misses on Treliving’s Maple Leafs’ track record thus far as GM, he hoped that John Klingberg could overcome injury issues and become a secondary puck-moving defenceman and power-play mainstay for Toronto last season. Unfortunately, the former Star started slow before seeing his season (and Leafs career) cut short due to hip surgery after just 14 games. Now, Treliving is trying to once again fill the role with another Swedish free agent, Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
There are plenty of reasons to believe that this free-agent foray should go much better. For one thing, Ekman-Larsson is fresh off of his highest-scoring total (nine goals and 32 points) since 2018-19 as part of the Cup champion Panthers. Although he is a full year older than Klingberg (33, compared to 32), Ekman-Larsson has a far more substantial track record for recent strong play. The 32 points he scored a season ago would have been good for second among Toronto blue-liners despite averaging just 18:24 of ice time per game.
Considering Klingberg was essentially a sunk cost for the club last season, Ekman-Larsson should constitute an upgrade even if he doesn’t play particularly well. After all, five assists over 14 games is a pretty low bar. Perhaps the more apt comparison for Ekman-Larsson would be one of the defensive trade deadline acquisitions, Ilya Lyubushkin and Joel Edmunson. Of course, the club’s opening night roster could still look very different than their playoff group, so there’s still room to add if need be.
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In: Max Pacioretty, Out: Tyler Bertuzzi
In a broad sense, the narrative of the Maple Leafs’ offseason (apart from keeping the ‘Core Four’ intact) has been focusing on goal prevention through the blue line and between the pipes. This would seem to suggest that improvements to the back end have come at the expense of the forward corps and, in general, that certainly seems to be true. While Tyler Bertuzzi wasn’t the team’s most essential forward, he was a strong, physical asset to the top six who they failed to replace.
Now, that is no disrespect to Max Pacioretty or even Steven Lorentz. However, both men had to settle for professional tryouts (PTOs) that offered the chance to prove themselves worthy of a contract in Toronto. Even if they both join the fold, don’t expect either to emulate the active, pest-like presence of Bertuzzi. Pacioretty showed in his first pre-season game that there’s still some ability to score goals left, but he’s also closing in on his 36th birthday and moving further away from his most recent 30-goal campaign (2019-20) while harboring a lengthy injury history.
If Pacioretty can turn back the clock and remain healthy for the 2024-25 season, he could help replace Bertuzzi’s top-six role and production (21 goals, 43 points) at what would likely be a fraction of the cost. Still, that’s a tall order for a player who has managed just 139 games across the past four seasons and seven goals over the previous two. The greater probability is that any diminished scoring output will hopefully be addressed by improvements from players like Matthew Knies and subsequent call-ups or additions as the season unfolds.
In: Jani Hakanpaa, Out: Mark Giordano
Speaking of holding out hopes of health for oft-injured newcomers, the Maple Leafs added defenceman Jani Hakanpaa in hopes that his surgically repaired knee will recover and can hold up over the grind of an 82-game season. By signing the 32-year-old Finn, the club took a risk, albeit a calculated one. If Hakanpaa can help boost the defensive corps, then he provides a valuable dimension of tough, playoff-proven grit. If he can’t, then the investment cost wasn’t particularly staggering for a player making $1.47 million and likely earmarked for a depth role.
The hope is that a healthy Hakanpaa can fill what is likely to be a bottom-pairing role in place of popular home-towner Mark Giordano. For as nice as it’s been to see Giordano come back home to join the Leafs – on a discount, no less – the 17-year veteran looked every bit of his 41 years of age in struggling to maintain the pace of play last season. Especially as he gets his legs back and re-adjusts to NHL-level speed, Hakanpaa will likely not be asked to provide much more than the 16:37 per game that Giordano averaged last season – at least not at first.
If Hakanpaa can come back at full strength, this is yet another spot where Toronto has clearly upgraded (with sentimental apologies to Giordano). But the nice thing about the Maple Leafs’ current blue-line depth is that they can also probably still manage regardless. For as helpful as a healthy Hakanpaa can be, a depth chart that includes the likes of Simon Benoit, Timothy Liljegren, Conor Timmins and Cade Webber all vying for bottom-pairing opportunities protects the club in the event that he isn’t ready.
To be clear, there are flaws to this approach of assessing the team through one-for-one player replacements. It fails to account for variation in the performance of current players from one season to the next, not to mention the impact of new head coach Craig Berube. Still, you can’t go through this exercise without feeling good about how Tanev, Ekman-Larsson, Hakanpaa and Stolarz will bolster a stronger defensive unit. That doesn’t currently appear to be as true on the offensive end, but it’s hard to say they aren’t an improved team overall.
