In this edition of Toronto Maple Leafs News & Rumors, I’ll take a look at one of the team’s youngest prospects, that being Easton Cowan. Although he was not thought to be a strong young player by many when he was drafted, events since that time have proven otherwise.
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Second, I’ll look at Auston Matthews, who is one of the key players on the Maple Leafs roster. In this post, I’ll look at his quest for goal-scoring greatness. The question I’ll try to answer is whether there’s a chance he could top Wayne Gretzky’s all-time NHL goal-scoring record of 894 goals. That’s likely a long shot, and I’ll talk about why that’s the case.
Item One: Cowan Is Rising in the Maple Leafs Prospect Pipeline
One of the most surprising of the Maple Leafs prospects has to be Easton Cowan. For a young player not on anyone’s list of stars-in-the-making, he’s emerged as a strong young player. Because the team gets relatively poor draft picks, he was the highest-drafted prospect since Rodion Amirov. Since that time, however, his rise has been remarkable. He’s surprised the skeptics who initially questioned the pick.
Cowan is currently one of the top forwards in the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) in points per game, and his performance speaks to his rapid development. He’s been playing extremely well, as his skill and consistency set him apart from other youngsters. Impressively, he was included on Team Canada’s World Juniors team at the age of 18. That is unusual, but it is a testament to his surprisingly quick rise on the international stage.
What makes Cowan so special is that he already seems to have skills that make him ready for the professional leagues. On top of that, he brings good habits and a dogged nature to the game. He doesn’t quit! He’s continuously improving and has become a force in juniors. His achievements are so solid that it isn’t a stretch to suggest that he could become the Maple Leafs’ top prospect.
Related: Maple Leafs Easton Cowan: It’s Not the Size of the Dog
For Maple Leafs fans, Cowan represents the promise of a bright future. His rise to the top has been unpredictable. Yet, he generates the excitement that comes with being a solid young talent. As he further grows his skills and rises through the ranks, there’s a chance fans will soon see Cowan in a blue and white NHL jersey. He has the potential to become a rising star and have a solid NHL career with the Maple Leafs.
Item Two: Three Reasons Gretzky’s Goal Total Is Almost Impossible for Matthews
Maple Leafs fans already know that Auston Matthews is an amazing goal scorer, one of the best of his era. However, can he achieve NHL greatness by breaking Gretzky’s record of 894 goals? While it will be fun to watch, the answer is likely “No.” Here are three reasons why it will be uber difficult to reach that mark for Matthews – as good a goal-scorer as he is.
Matthews is indeed setting a scorching pace. This season, he’s seeking his third Rocket Richard Trophy in just four seasons. With 40 goals in 46 games, he’s one of the most prolific scorers of his generation. That said, the road to Gretzky’s all-time goal record of 894 is a steep mountain to climb. Sadly, for Maple Leafs fans, it’s likely that Matthews will never become the NHL’s leading goal-scorer.
Matthews has started well, but there’s still a long way to go on this journey. He began his NHL career by scoring four goals in his debut game, and he’s been consistent since. He’s placed himself among a select group of gifted scorers. Yet, at what seems like a young age of 26, he finds himself far behind Gretzky’s pace at the same age. One reason Matthews is lagging behind Gretzky is that they play in totally different eras, where the scoring climate was completely different. While there’s no discounting Gretzky’s greatness, it was likely easier to score then than it is now.
Related: Maple Leafs Matthews Spectacular Start Sends Clear Message
As a result, at the 300-goal benchmark at the age of 26, Matthews is 175 goals behind where Gretzky stood at the same age. It will be a challenge to make up that many goals. It also didn’t help that Matthews missed huge parts of seasons when COVID-19 erased so many games.
A recent post by Daily Faceoff (linked above) suggests that the trajectories of players who crossed the 300-goal threshold through age 26 reveal two critical trends. First, player longevity is a key. Second, there’s a significant dip in production after the age of 30 years. While Matthews might be mid-career at 26, history suggests that players’ primes do not last very long. Furthermore, they experience a 35 percent dip in scoring post-26.
These trends raise questions about Matthews’ ability to sustain his elite performance, overcome injuries, and work through the inevitable decline that awaits even the most exceptional talents.
If Matthews is to have any chance of reaching Gretzky’s record, several key factors come into play. These have to fall into place almost perfectly.
In the “Nice-to-Have” category, factors include A) 82-game schedules — uninterrupted seasons to maximize goal-scoring opportunities; B) a strong supporting cast — Matthews must have a talented team around him so he can enhance offensive capabilities); and C) no harmful trends — this includes continued player-friendly rules and circumstances conducive to goal-scoring.
In the “Must-Have” category, Matthews needs A) good health — this is the most important factor for breaking any record; he must stay in prime playing condition for more than a decade-plus); B) a strong scoring environment — this means that there needs to be a continuation of the current scoring climate, which would allow Matthews to maintain his goal-scoring power; and finally, C) he needs to play young for 10 more years — can Matthews defy the typical decline seen in goal-scorers? Can he maintain an elite level for another decade?
Related: Maple Leafs Signing Matthews a Franchise-Defining Moment
The journey ahead for Matthews will be tough. It is not impossible, but it will be exceedingly difficult for him to even come close to Gretzky’s record. In truth, Matthews might be the better goal-scorer. Yet, the times differ, the rules differ, and the context differs. It might be fun to watch this pursuit, but it will likely end in a near miss.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
I’ve read that both Mitch Marner and William Nylander are enjoying the All-Star festivities. Marner, for certain, should be in his element. He seems to love the attention and the joy of engaging in these fan-focussed events. Always the life of the party, he seems to take these kinds of events.
Nylander, on the other hand, is more circumspect. Yet, it will be also fun to see how he engages in the “work of the weekend.” I’d love to see the Maple Leafs be well-represented in the kinds of events that will take place. While I know this weekend matters little to the team’s final destination on the season, it is fun to have a break and watch things with a little less anxiety.
