Last night the Toronto Maple Leafs beat a solid Winnipeg Jets team in the last minute of overtime by a score of 1-0. The fact is that, despite the Maple Leafs’ win, the game was a struggle for the team, with their performance leaving much to be desired.
As my oft-times co-writer Stan Smith noted to me this morning, analyzing the statistics from Naturalstattrick.com shows just how lucky the team was to win. Playing five-on-five, the Maple Leafs managed to create only two High-Danger Scoring Chances in the entire game. What’s more concerning is that not a single Maple Leafs player found themselves on the positive side of High-Danger Scoring Chances.
Probably surprisingly to Maple Leafs fans, Conor Timmins was on the ice for both High-Danger Chances For. However, he was also present for two High-Danger Scoring Chances Against. Despite this, Timmins emerged as the only Maple Leafs player with a positive Expected-Goals rating at 62.4%. The next best player in this regard was Max Domi, but he lagged far behind at 43.1%.
Related: It’s Not Time to Give Up on Maple Leafs’ Ilya Samsonov Yet
The point is that the 1-0 victory masked a host of problems for the Maple Leafs. For those who analyze the game, it pointed out a ton of things the team needs to improve as they enter the post-All-Star break; work the team’s coaching staff has to engage in practice. For now, it seems time to focus on how fortunate the team was to have had goalie Ilya Samsonov in the crease to carry them to the win.
Item One: Four Reasons the Maple Leafs Won the Game
There were several reasons the Maple Leafs won last night’s game. From my perspective, these included Samsonov, Auston Matthews’ overtime goal, the great series of plays Nick Robertson undertook to make that goal happen, and the team’s solid defense and penalty kill.
Reason One: Samsonov’s Stellar Goaltending
Samsonov’s outstanding goaltending was the key to the Maple Leafs’ win as he made 32 saves to earn his second shutout of the season. His remarkable saves included stopping a shorthanded 2-on-0 break. As Matthews noted after the game, Samsonov was the “best player on the ice for us.” After a lack of success this season, Samsonov’s mental toughness showed up in spades and he played a flat-out amazing game.
Reason Two: Auston Matthews’ Clutch Overtime Goal
The second reason the Maple Leafs won was that Matthews put himself in the right place at the right time. His teammates during overtime, Morgan Rielly and Nick Robertson, did the heavy lifting to give the prolific goal scorer a chance and he converted. It was Matthews’ NHL-leading 39th goal, and it came with less than a minute remaining in overtime. The clutch play highlighted Matthews’ ability to step up when a game is on the line.
Related: Reaves Future With Maple Leafs Is Both Certain and Uncertain
Reason Three: The Maple Leafs Had a Strong Defensive Stand and Penalty Kill
Make no mistake, the Maple Leafs faced a tough challenge in the game, specifically in the overtime session as the Jets started the extra period with 1:25 of power-play time. Despite the disadvantage, the Maple Leafs defense, led by Samsonov’s stellar saves, held on. They denied the Jets any advantage during their power play.
This defensive stand was a huge positive for the team. It showed their ability to withstand pressure and contributed significantly to the win. The Maple Leafs’ penalty kill also nullified every Jets’ power play.
Reason Four: The Jets Were Without Key Players
The absence of the Jets’ key players also helped the Maple Leafs hold the Winnipeg offense in check. Mark Scheifele and Gabriel Vilardi were unable to dress for the game and Josh Morrissey departed early due to injury. The loss of these Jets’ stars likely hampered the team’s offensive capabilities and rendered the Jets’ attack less potent. As a result, the Maple Leafs were able to capitalize on the Jets’ weaker lineup.
Item Two: Ilya Samsonov Stole One Last Night for His Team
Focusing more on Samsonov’s impressive performance, the game produced an unexpected goaltending duel between him and Jets’ backup Laurent Brossoit. He, too, also looked unbeatable. For fans who love such solid goalie play, it had to be a great game to watch. Both goalies deserved accolades. It was one game where giving a point for an overtime loss made sense.
Given Samsonov’s earlier season’s challenges, the game had to be a confidence builder. He seems to be regaining his swagger (as much as he had it – from listening to him talk, he seems more team-focused than individually-focused). If Samsonov is, indeed, back, that’s great news for the team. Since his return to the roster on Jan. 10, Samsonov has put up a 2-1-0 record and has allowed only four goals on 72 shots. For fans like myself who love the numbers, his .944 save percentage (SV%) is impressive.
Despite this recent success, Samsonov still has some lifting to do to reach what can be considered a statistical success on the season. In his 18 games thus far, the 26-year-old goalie has put up a 3.45 goals-against average (GAA) and a .875 SV%. If he continues his positive play, he might reach a plus .900 save percentage and a lower-than-three GAA.
Item Three: Auston Matthews Gets Goal, But Nick Robertson Plays the Hero
Matthews scored the Maple Leafs overtime goal, but Robertson did the legwork. Robertson was all over the ice, knocking down passes, retrieving and protecting the puck, and giving a great pass to Rielly. Rielly then made a great play to give the puck to Matthews for the goal. As an aside, because Robertson went off the ice on a change just after his pass to Rielly, he got an assist but didn’t register a plus-1 on the play. When was the last time in a 1-0 game that a player got an assist but didn’t register a plus-1?
Related: Minnesota Dominates, but Loses to Montréal in PWHL Action
Although Matthews needs to average almost three goals in his next four games to reach the 50-in-50 milestone, he’s still on pace for a career goal-scoring season. If he maintains his current pace, the 26-year-old could put up the NHL’s first 70-goal season since 1992-93. That was the season both Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny scored 76 goals. Matthews continues to be a force, showing his goal-scoring power and contributing significantly to the Maple Leafs’ success.
What’s Next for the Maple Leafs?
In good news for Maple Leafs fans, Joseph Woll’s ankle injury (suffered on since Dec. 7) is responding to treatment and he might be close to a return. Head coach Sheldon Keefe reported recently that Woll would resume practicing after the All-Star break. At the same time, Keefe cautioned that the young goalie’s return to the lineup might not happen immediately after that break.
When he does return, Woll is expected to contend for the role of the team’s starting goalie. On the season, he’s put up an 8-5-1 record, 2.80 GAA, and .916 SV% in 15 games. Fans can only hope Samsonov continues his brilliance and that Woll joins him as the team’s 1A and 1B goalies.
