The recent signings of K’Andre Miller and Bowen Byram to two-year contracts worth $3.872 million and $3.85 million, respectively, have set the stage for Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard’s next contract negotiations. It is anticipated that Bouchard will seek a similar deal, with previous reports suggesting a bridge contract ranging between $3.5 million and $4 million.
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If accurate, this is more than fair for a player who is not only worth it based on previous production but is absolutely trending in the direction that this could be a bargain over the next two seasons. That said, this deal is not without its problems.
What Does a $3.85M Deal for Bouchard Mean?
According to Jason Gregor of Oilers Nation, signing Bouchard for $3.85 million would represent a fair deal for the player in terms of his on-ice value to the team. But, it will also likely result in the Oilers starting the 2023/24 NHL season with a 21-man roster. The Oilers would have loved to get Bouchard in around $3 million, thus giving them room for one more depth forward, but the deals for Byram and Miller essentially guarantee that’s not happening.
As such, the Oilers’ roster this coming season will likely consist of 12 forwards, seven defensemen, and two goalies. While not ideal, it’s the curse of the salary cap not going up and comparables are what they are. Only if Bouchard were to take a team-friendly deal versus what these other two defensemen were just signed for could the Oilers then sign Ryan McLeod for around $1.8 million, and run with a 22-man roster, leaving around $600,000 in cap space.
This is unlikely to happen, thus any future player additions would likely occur at the trade deadline.
Why Bouchard’s Numbers Will Fall in Line
Jonathan Willis of The Athletic echoed Jim Matheson’s assessment that all three players will sign similar bridge deals and Willis provided a breakdown of the numbers. He compared the contracts of Byram, Miller, and Bouchard, emphasizing that all three defensemen are signing their second contracts and have comparable stat lines.
Willis highlighted their playing time versus their production and indicated that Byram maintained a 47-point pace with 21 minutes and 53 seconds of time on ice (TOI) per game, while Miller achieved a 45-point pace with 21 minutes and 57 seconds of TOI. Bouchard, on the other hand, accumulated 40 points in 82 games with an average TOI of 18 minutes and 31 seconds. Bouchard has received less ice time than Byram and Miller but it’s key to remember this was only when averaged out. Bouchard’s ice time took a significant jump in the latter part of this past season. Over the last 20 games of the season, he averaged 21:23 minutes per game.
Bouchard Is Trending in the Right, But Expensive Direction
The recent surge in Bouchard’s offensive production since being placed on the first-unit power play following Tyson Barrie’s trade to Nashville adds an intriguing aspect to future contract negotiations. In 33 games, Bouchard demonstrated impressive numbers, including nine goals, 36 points, a pace of 89 points, a +8 rating, six power-play goals, 23 power-play points, and 65 shots. If he keeps that pace next season, his value will jump in a significant way. That looks good for the Oilers over the two years of his bridge deal, but it poses a problem when it comes time to sign him again.
As discussions progress, Bouchard’s increased offensive contributions, along with his solid overall performance, will undoubtedly play a role in determining the value of his next contract. The comparables at that stage in his career will be very interesting.
The Oilers will need to carefully consider his recent productivity, his potential for further growth, and his importance to the team’s defensive core as they move forward with this bridge deal. Ultimately, they have little choice but to go in this direction and the numbers have been set. Once complete, it will be up to the team to both maintain a competitive roster this year and next, but also keep an eye on the long-term play, fitting in what could be a monster contract for Bouchard.
