A few weeks back, The Hockey Writers (THW) projected the top five offenses for the upcoming season. So, it’s time to project the teams that will thrive at the other end of the ice. The catch with defense is that, unlike offense, there’s a lot more change from season to season as more variables come into play.
Related: Projecting the NHL’s Top 5 Offenses in 2024-25
For example, of the top five teams last season, only the Carolina Hurricanes also made it in 2022-23. Looking at last season’s top five, it’s easy to see why a few teams might regress and not make the list this time around.
5. Vancouver Canucks (2.70)
4. Carolina Hurricanes (2.57)
3. Los Angeles Kings (2.56)
*1 (tied) Winnipeg Jets (2.41)
*1. (tied) Florida Panthers (2.41)
So, let’s dive into what the top five will look like for this season. It must be noted that this isn’t a ranking of the best defensive units but overall team defense. This includes goaltending along with the defensive unit.
5 – Vegas Golden Knights
The Vegas Golden Knights seem like one team that wouldn’t make this list. They allowed 2.96 goals per game last season which was outside the top 10 and even in the season where they won the Cup, they had an underwhelming defense, allowing 2.74 goals per game. On top of that, the goaltending makes it easy to believe that the Golden Knights will struggle as they have a questionable trio heading into the new season. That said, they will surprise and crack the top five.
The defensive unit is one of the best in the league. Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore, Zach Whitecloud, and Brayden McNabb lead the top two pairings. They lost Alec Martinez in the offseason, one of their best shot-blocking defensemen but made up for it by adding Noah Hanifin at the 2024 Trade Deadline. The Golden Knights will make the job easy for their goaltenders, with their defensemen playing great limiting effective shots on the net.
Then there’s the goaltending which isn’t great but will be good enough with Adin Hill becoming the primary starter while Ilya Samsonov and Akira Schmid are the high-upside backups. The combination of great defense and solid goaltending will allow the Golden Knights to end the season with one of the best team defenses in the game.
4 – Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks shocked everyone last season, finishing with the best record in the Pacific Division and it’s easy to think they will regress. The defense was incredible and after a lot going their way, they could struggle this season. However, they have the pieces to be great defensively once again.
Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek are a great duo, combining for 12.4 defensive point shares last season. Hughes won the Norris Trophy for his great play across the board and his ability to round out his game on the defensive end of the ice made him one of the elite skaters in the league. Then there’s the depth with Tyler Myers, Carson Soucy, and offseason addition Derek Forbort making the unit great from the top down.
Sure, goaltender Arturs Silovs could struggle in a full season as a backup, but the 23-year-old is more likely to take a big step forward. Meanwhile, Thatcher Demko is one of the best goaltenders in the NHL. This gives the Canucks two goaltenders on the younger side who can be a great duo throughout the season.
The Canucks can easily have the best defense in the league this season, especially if the Demko-Silovs duo takes off (it must be noted that Casey DeSmith struggled as a backup last season and Silovs can easily be an upgrade). The play of the offense is what interests a lot of people with this team and Hughes is a big part of that but how they’ll look defensively will keep this team near the top of the Western Conference.
3 – New York Rangers
The New York Rangers finished last season with the best record in the NHL in part due to their defense. This season, they look to be even better.
The optimism comes from Igor Shesterkin who is poised to play great for a full season. He struggled early on last season before turning a corner in the second half and looking like one of the elite goaltenders that fans are used to. He’ll kick off the ground running and it helps that Jonathan Quick is the backup. The Rangers have a great one-two punch in the net and there’s a chance Quick declines this season but this unit will be great all season.
Then there’s a defensive unit that still has a great core. Granted, Erik Gustafsson was great last season and he’s now playing elsewhere while Jacob Trouba had all the trade rumors in the summer. Otherwise, there’s the trio of Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, and Ryan Lindgren that is incredible. Fox is a perennial Norris Trophy contender while Miller and Lindgren are two of the more underrated defensemen in the league, as two great stay-at-home defensemen.
2 – Carolina Hurricanes
When everything went wrong early on last season and the Hurricanes couldn’t figure out their goaltending, it looked like for the first time in the Rod Brind’Amour era, the defense wouldn’t be one of the best in the league. Through 34 games, they allowed 3.23 goals per game and the issues fell squarely on the defense. They still pulled it all together and finished the season in the top five.
They head into this season with a defense going through some turnover yet nobody will doubt them. Jaccob Slavin is still the top defenseman and one of the best in the league, with 5.6 defensive point shares last season and 5.4 defensive point shares or more in each of the past four seasons. Then there’s Brent Burns who even at 39 is still playing at a high level at both ends of the ice. The Hurricanes lost Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce but added Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker to round out the unit.
Goaltending remains a question mark but this season is different. Pyotr Kotchetkov looks ready to be the primary starter after 40 starts last season and at 25, he’s ready to set the Hurricanes up for success. Frederik Andersen missed time in each of the last three seasons but this time around, he’ll be playing a decreased role which will help him out. Paired with a forward unit that plays great defense, notably with Jordan Staal centering a middle-six line, the Hurricanes are all but a lock to finish in the top five and possibly with the best defense in the league.
1 – Winnipeg Jets
Having the number one defense back at one heading into the new season is a bad idea prediction-wise. When was the last time the team that finished with the best mark in the league did the same thing the following season? Even if a team looks great on paper, a regression is inevitable. So, why are the Jets ranked number one on this list?
The better question is how could the Jets not be number one? The defensive unit was great and looks to remain that way even without Brenden Dillon as the rest of the core is coming back after last season. Dylan DeMelo was one of the best in the league with 6.9 defensive point shares while Josh Morrissey, Neal Pionk, and Dylan Samberg play the top two pairings as well. Then there’s the depth which this team has plenty of options to turn to with Logan Stanley, Colin Miller, Dylan Coghlan, and Ville Heinola all capable of playing on the second and third pair.
The defensive unit makes a good case for the Jets but it’s not the closing argument. That’s the goaltending which only got stronger in the offseason. Connor Hellebuyck is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and without question one of the few elite goaltenders in the NHL. He’ll start the majority of the games but the Jets also added Eric Comrie and Kaapo Kahkonen to back him up. This team has the advantage in the net every night and it’s why they will have the best defense this season and be a playoff team.
Teams That Just Missed The Cut
There are a few teams that have good arguments to finish in the top five, and they might. Yet, their respective issues will keep them just on the outside of the top five this season.
The Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup with their defense leading the way. They should be great once again but they lost two core pieces of that great defense who will be tough to replace. Brandon Montour signed with the Seattle Kraken and Oliver Ekman-Larsson is now on the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Montour joined the Kraken and that’s why they might have a great defense. They had a great unit already with Jamie Oleksiak, Vince Dunn, and Adam Larsson on the roster and Montour might be the cherry on top. The problem is that goaltending is a clear question mark, notably after Philipp Grubauer struggled last season.
Speaking of goaltending, that’s the reason the Boston Bruins missed the Cup. They no longer have that dynamic duo of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman. Instead, they have Joonas Korpisalo backing up Swayman and it’s why despite having one of the best defensive units in the game, they won’t be as dominant on the defensive end of the ice.
Is there a team you think will finish in the top five this season that was left off the list? Let us know in the comments section below!
