Maybe this has happened before, but if it has, I certainly can’t remember the last time it did. We are nearly a month into the season, and every team in the NHL’s Eastern Conference enters play tonight (Nov. 4) with at least a .500 record or better. The Philadelphia Flyers, who are 16th in the East, have a 6-5-1 record and 13 points. Just five points separate them and the Montreal Canadiens, who sit atop the Eastern Conference with 18 points.
While this is a cool storyline to begin the season, it can’t last. All of these teams will play each other at some point, so the East will sort itself out in due time. Which teams have the best chance of sticking around, and which ones will fade off and find themselves looking ahead to the 2026 NHL Draft?
The Wild, Wild East
As mentioned at the top of this post, the Canadiens sit in first in the East, but what do the rest of the standings look like?
- Canadiens: 9-3-0, 18 points
- New Jersey Devils: 9-4-0, 18 points
- Pittsburgh Penguins: 8-3-2, 18 points
- Detroit Red Wings: 9-4-0, 18 points
- Toronto Maple Leafs: 7-5-1, 15 points
- Carolina Hurricanes: 7-4-0, 14 points
- Columbus Blue Jackets: 7-5-0, 14 points
- Tampa Bay Lightning: 6-4-2, 14 points
The Top 4 Teams in the East
Let’s start with the 18-point teams, shall we? The Canadiens have looked better than I expected to start the season, but it isn’t without some reason for pause. Are they going to continue pacing for 123 points? I doubt it, and their numbers suggest there’ll be a bit of a dropoff at some point. They have just a 49.89 expected goals percentage (xG%) at five-on-five, and only four of their wins have come in regulation, so there’s been some overtime luck. Still, I expect them to hang around and compete for a playoff spot.
The same is true of the Devils, who are also struggling at five-on-five. They have just a 47.94 xG% to begin the season, but injuries have been a storyline for them. Evgenii Dadonov, Brett Pesce and Johnathan Kovacevic have all missed significant time, while Cody Glass and Connor Brown seem to have less serious ailments. Once they get healthy, they should be one of the top teams in the East.
The Penguins have been impressive to start the season, but can they sustain it? They have a 48.33 xG%, ranking them just ahead of the Devils. They create a ton of offense, but they also give plenty of it back. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin don’t age. But unsustainable starts from Anthony Mantha and Justin Brazeau, who are both shooting above 20 percent, have me thinking the Penguins will fade out of a playoff spot in time.
In Detroit, is this the year the Yzerplan breaks through? The Atlantic Division is muddled, but there seems to be genuine improvement in the Red Wings’ five-on-five game; they have a 52.54 xG%. If that continues, they can stick around and contend for a playoff spot. I think there’s enough young talent there to keep them competitive.
The Next 4 Teams
I don’t feel like we need to spend much time on the Hurricanes. They seem like the most obvious team to stick around since they’re among the favorites to win the Metropolitan Division and perhaps the East. They aren’t going anywhere.
The Maple Leafs are off to a slow start, but I do see some reason for concern. They are not as skilled as they were a season ago, and they certainly seem slower than they were. Anthony Stolarz has regressed significantly in net, and they’ve just been a middle-of-the-pack five-on-five team. They probably make the playoffs, but it could be much more tenous than it was last season.
Related: Maple Leafs’ 3rd Period Comeback Leads Them Past the Penguins 4-3
The Blue Jackets missed the playoffs by two points a season ago. It’s not a surprise they’re in the mix early, but I’m not sure they can maintain their place in the standings. Much like last season, they create a ton of offense but give plenty of it back. They’ll have to improve defensively because allowing 3.17 expected goals per 60 minutes will cost them as the season progresses.
The Lightning got off to a slow start, but it didn’t take long for them to kick into high gear. They’ve quickly emerged as one of the NHL’s best five-on-five teams, totaling an xG% of 54.5 percent, ranking them fifth in the NHL. They were my preseason pick to win the Atlantic, and I’m sticking with it. They look like they’re trending in that direction.
Which Non-Playoff Teams Will Challenge for a Spot?
What about the bottom eight teams in the East? Here are the standings for 9-16:
- 9. New York Rangers: 6-5-2, 14 points
- 10. Ottawa Senators: 6-5-2, 14 points
- 11. Boston Bruins: 7-7-0, 14 points
- 12. New York Islanders: 6-5-1, 13 points
- 13. Washington Capitals: 6-5-1, 13 points
- 14. Florida Panthers: 6-5-1, 13 points
- 15. Buffalo Sabres: 5-4-3, 13 points
- 16. Flyers: 6-5-1, 13 points
For this part of the exercise, let’s eliminate some teams that don’t look like playoff contenders. At the top of the list is the Bruins, who’ve had a rough go of it at five-on-five. Their 44.77 xG% ranks in the bottom five of the NHL, and I don’t see that improving much as the season progresses. Their roster just isn’t good enough.
Next up is the Islanders. Matthew Schaefer has been an absolute stud to begin his rookie season, but he can’t carry them alone. They’ve struggled at five-on-five, totaling an xG% of 46.88 percent. Their retool seems to be trending in the right direction, but they’re probably a couple of years away from competing again.
After them, well…it gets interesting. Mike Sullivan seems to have made a difference for the Rangers, as they’ve improved dramatically at five-on-five. They’re playing a more structured game and have the second-best xG% in the NHL. The biggest question for them is whether they can score enough. Finishing has been a problem for them to begin the season, but they look good enough to compete for a wild-card spot if they can find their scoring touch.
The Panthers haven’t missed a beat at five-on-five, but injuries to Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk are killers. Tkachuk should be back sometime in the next couple of months, but Barkov is likely out for the regular season at a minimum. They have the third-best xG% in the NHL, so they just need to survive until Tkachuk returns, but I do think they’ll be on the playoff bubble because of injuries.
The Capitals are in a similar position. They’ve been dominant at five-on-five, but Pierre-Luc Dubois will be out for an extended period with an injury. They’re right behind the Panthers in xG% at five-on-five, but can they survive without Dubois? It wouldn’t shock me if they’re fighting for their playoff lives during the stretch run.
The Senators made the playoffs a season ago, but they’re just outside of a playoff spot today. Still, I like their odds of making the postseason. Their five-on-five numbers are solid (they have a 52.18 xG%), even though they play more of a defensive, low-event style of hockey. They just need to get by until Brady Tkachuk returns from his injury, but they look legitimate.
The final two teams in the East, the Sabres and Flyers, have had decent starts to the season. Both teams have identical xG percentages of 50.57 percent, but I’m more optimistic about the Sabres than I am the Flyers.
The Sabres have some legitimate high-end talent on their roster, including Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin, and Alex Tuch. Josh Doan has also been a revelation in his first season with the Sabres after coming to Buffalo in the JJ Peterka trade. Alex Lyon has been great in net, but goaltending is the biggest question mark with the Sabres. Will it be consistent enough all season to keep them in the race? Time will tell.
In the Flyers’ case, I’m not sure they have enough high-end talent to stay in the chase. Trevor Zegras is off to a strong start, and Matvei Michkov looks poised to take a step forward from a promising rookie season, but can Sean Couturier keep up his 67-point pace? I’m skeptical. Dan Vladar has been fantastic in net, posting a .924 SV% and a quality start percentage of .857%, but I remain skeptical this continues. Plus, just three of their six wins have come in regulation, so they’ve had some OT luck, too.
Who Survives?
I feel confident that the Lightning and Hurricanes will survive this East gauntlet. It’d be a shock if they didn’t. The Devils should be in this tier, too, but health and some iffy five-on-five numbers give me some concern. After these three teams, it feels like it’ll be a crapshoot.
The Bruins and Islanders seem like the safest bets to miss the postseason, with the Flyers and Sabres being a tier above them in the “they probably miss, but they could make it interesting” category. It’ll be interesting to see how the East sorts itself out, because no one looks terrible as of today, but some teams will fall out of the picture. It’s just the law of averages, but the playoff race could come down to the wire since it appears as many as 10-12 teams could stay in the picture.
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