‘Playoff style hockey’ is a buzz phrase going around the league and is used to talk about a team’s style of play and if it is conducive to success in the playoffs. While everyone who uses the term has a different definition of what it means, in general, it is just another way of saying a team plays a style of hockey that is conducive to winning hockey games in multiple ways. This is something the Pittsburgh Penguins have not been able to do this season and will need to figure out to push for the playoffs in the back half of the season.
Throughout the Penguins’ first 37 games, they have not played a style of hockey conducive to winning in all types of games. They have only won three games in which they scored three or fewer goals. On some level, you are expected to lose when you don’t score, but compare this to the New Jersey Devils, who have eight wins when they score three goals or less. The Devils are at the top of the Metropolitan Division, 14 points in front of the Penguins, eight of which would be from games where they have found a way to win when their offense has struggled, and then the Devils have also played two more games than the Penguins.
The Penguins Need More Defensive Structure
On Saturday night, in their first game out of the Christmas break, the Penguins gave up 15 high-danger chances in a 6-3 loss to the New York Islanders. They followed that up the next day with a much better performance against the Islanders in the second game of their home-and-home series. In that game, the Penguins still gave up 13 high-danger chances, which is still more than ideal, but they did a better job of controlling these chances by producing 19.
Related: Islanders & Penguins Have Paths To Retool if Needed
The league average for high-danger chances allowed per game is 11.16. The 15 and the 13 the Penguins gave up in Saturday and Sunday’s games against the Islanders are just a continuation of a trend they have been dealing with all season; they are giving up far too many quality scoring chances.
While these may only be two games, this is a consistent theme. The Penguins are allowing the fourth-most high-danger chances against per game, which, in turn, has been a significant contributing factor to allowing the seventh-most expected goals per game this season.
On some level, these high chance allowed numbers are due to the pace of the Penguins’ play. Despite allowing high-danger chances at a well above league average rate, they have created more high-danger chances than they have given up, having got 51.11% of the high-danger chances in their games this season. They are playing at the sixth-highest pace in the NHL. This can be found when you combine each team’s shot attempts for and against. The common theme among all five teams above the Penguins in pace is four of the five have fewer points, with the outlier being the Calgary Flames, who have lost nine of their last 14 games.
Penguins Have to Play Fast Without Playing Reckless
The Penguins core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Erik Karlsson and Kris Letang is built to play fast. Having two excellent puck-moving defensemen, Karlsson and Letang, allows this team to transition up the ice quickly, and having two all-time offensive talents playing in odd-man rush chances is precisely what you want. There is nothing you can complain about what they have done offensively this season, but they do need to find a way to limit the chances coming back the other way.
Another example from a Metro Division rival is the Carolina Hurricanes. They lead the NHL in shot attempts by far. While they play incredibly fast, they do a good job of limiting some of the scoring chances coming back the other way, allowing them to have the sixth-highest goal-for percentage and fourth-highest expected goal percentage.
The Hurricanes have done this while allowing the fifth-most high-danger chances per game. This example may be extreme; the Hurricanes are better on paper, the Penguins’ roster has holes, and their goalies have struggled. However, the Penguins will succeed more if they can find a way to limit scoring chances better. They are putting a ton of pressure on their goalies, with 41.4% of the scoring chances they give up per game being high-danger.
The Penguins have time to address the holes in their roster, but if they continue to allow the most goals per game in the NHL, they will struggle to keep themselves in playoff contention. There is no one-size-fits-all to ‘playoff-style hockey’, but one of the main components is consistently controlling the scoring chances. If the Penguins can do this, it will allow them to be more competitive in low-scoring games and continue to dominate in high-scoring games as they have done recently.
All Stats via Natural Stat Trick
