Mitch Marner has easily been the MVP of the Toronto Maple Leafs‘ season. With Auston Matthews in and out of the lineup due to a nagging injury, Marner stepped up and carried the team. Through 42 games, he has scored 18 goals and 44 assists for 58 points, he leads the team in points by 13. He also leads the team in assists with 44, which is 11 more than anyone else on the roster.
Marner is in an interesting spot; he will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. He could test the open market and have teams lining up to sign him, or he could re-sign with his childhood team, the Maple Leafs, and aim to bring the Stanley Cup back to Toronto for the first time since 1967.
Although reports from Chris Johnston suggest that the longer contract negotiations drag into the season, the more likely it is that he will explore free agency, there’s still a good chance Marner will re-sign with the club. Which begs the question: what would the contract look like?
Marner’s New Deal
$60 million/5 years ($12 M AAV)
Marner has been one of the best wingers in the NHL since signing his current deal in 2019. Statistically, he has been lights out, with 473 points over those six seasons. It only makes sense that he uses other top wingers in the NHL as comparables. The two most relevant comparisons for Marner, are Artemi Panarin ($11.6 million) of the New York Rangers and David Pastrnak ($11.2 million) of the Boston Bruins.
Since the 2019-20 season, Panarin has amassed 504 points, while Pastrnak has tallied 485 points. Although Marner trails slightly with 473 points over those six seasons, he has seen other stars pushing for higher salaries and will likely use that as leverage to secure a raise.
The $12 million average annual value (AAV) is significant. The Maple Leafs appear to be operating under an internal cap, and general manager (GM) Brad Treliving must adhere to it if the organization wants long-term success. Matthews’ $13.2 million AAV sets the ceiling, but Marner could reasonably command more than William Nylander‘s $11.5 million. This is why $12 million per season for Marner makes sense.
The only true uncertainty when predicting Marner’s contract is the term. A five-year deal would bring him to age 32, allowing him to sign another lucrative contract while still playing at or near his peak. However, he could also request a shorter term—perhaps three years—to align his contract with Matthews’ expiration. Adopting Matthews’ strategy of maximizing earnings over shorter deals could give Marner one more chance at a significant payday later in his career.
Related: Predicting Maple Leafs’ John Tavares Next Contract
From the Maple Leafs’ perspective, a five-year deal at $12 million per season would likely be welcomed. It would keep Marner under contract for two seasons beyond Matthews’ current deal and two seasons fewer than Nylander’s, staggering their star players’ contracts. This approach could work in their favour if they aim to re-sign Marner down the line, especially as the NHL salary cap is expected to rise over the next five to seven years.
Only time will tell, especially with reports indicating that Marner might test free agency. Nevertheless, the Maple Leafs will undoubtedly extend him a contract offer. Treliving won’t allow a player of Marner’s caliber to walk to free agency without making several strong offers. Ideally, Toronto would prefer an eight-year deal, but given the way star players have been negotiating contracts recently, a five-year term feels more realistic.
