The Ottawa Senators have the typical look of a seller heading into the 2024 NHL Deadline. With just 30 points in 39 games, the team sits at the bottom of the Atlantic Division and third last in the league, and with just $12,000 in cap space, they are in no place to take in big contracts. Add in a rapidly-depleting farm system, and you have the modern recipe for a rebuild.
Yet another rebuild is the last thing that the new Senators owners want to start. After seven years of missing the playoffs, this was supposed to be the season that would change, and with one of the youngest cores in the NHL, surrounding them with the right talent needs to be the top priority. The team knows it too, with general manager Steve Staios promising he’ll be aggressive on the trade market to turn this team around. That’s created plenty of speculation around the team’s expiring contracts and underperforming stars. But, of course, a roster shakeup is never easy, and moving most of these players is going to hurt. But how much? Here are the top five players expected to be moved on deadline day and how painful it will be for Ottawa.
Vladimir Tarasenko
Ranked sixth on TSN’s Top-30 Trade Bait Board, Vladimir Tarasenko has been discussed as a potential deadline rental since he signed a one-year, $5 million deal in the offseason. Yet, in classic Senators fashion, it’s not that simple. Not only does he have a no-movement clause, but he’s also been one of the team’s best forwards. His 10 goals and 28 points rank fifth on the team, and he’s one of the few positive plus/minus forwards on the team, sitting with a plus-9 after 37 games.
At this time, according to Frank Seravalli on the Coming in Hot Podcast, the Senators reportedly haven’t pushed Tarasenko to waive his no-movement clause and many of the younger guys like having him around. He’s been a good fit in the top six and looks like he could follow in the footsteps of fellow veteran Claude Giroux, who posted a career-high in goals last season at the age of 35. However, that may be coming to an end soon; Bruce Garrioch reported that it’s expected Ottawa will ask Tarasenko to waive his no-trade clause ahead of the deadline (from “GARRIOCH: Keep an eye on Jakob Chychrun as Senators GM Steve Staios studies trade options,” The Ottawa Sun – 1/17/24).
How painful would it be to lose him? 7/10 – Losing Taranseko will sting as he’s been one of the rare bright spots on the Senators, but given his one-year deal, this was always a possibility. Hopefully, Ottawa can use his success this season to bring in a solid middle-six player and make room for youngster Shane Pinto, who just signed for $775,000. Unfortunately, it’s likely to be one or the other, since Tarasenko will essentially get to pick where he wants to go if he chooses to leave.
Dominik Kubalik
Dominik Kubalik is in a similar situation to Tarasenko in that, when he was acquired in the Alex DeBrincat deal, it was always assumed that he was going to be traded before his contract expired. However, that’s about where the comparisons end. Kubalik is signed to just $2.5 million for one more season, has no trade protection, and most importantly, hasn’t been a great fit in Ottawa. Sure, his nine goals put him sixth on the team in scoring, but he sits 12th in total points and has a minus-16 in plus/minus, which is the lowest among all Senators. His linemate, Ridly Greig, on the other hand, has a plus-14, which is the highest.
Related: Ottawa Senators’ 2024 Trade Deadline Targets
Still, Kubalik is a streaky scorer and could be utilized by a playoff team, which landed him at 16th on TSN’s Trade Board. His contract is affordable, too, making him much more moveable than Tarasenko. Sure, the return won’t be quite as large, but that shouldn’t be too much of a problem for Staios. He needs cap space, so if someone is willing to take him, he should consider it.
How painful would it be to lose him? 3/10 – Losing someone who can put the puck in the net is always tough, but Kubalik is on pace to put up his lowest total since breaking into the NHL in 2019-20. His absence on the third line could be replaced from within, too. Angus Crookshank has been excellent everywhere he’s played and could be a cheap alternative, as could Tyler Boucher, who is finally back on the ice and playing well. The painful part comes from the realization that the DeBrincat experiment was an abject failure, especially if the return for Kubalik is underwhelming (which it will be).
Jakob Chychrun
When Serivalli listed Jakob Chychrun 10th on the Daily Faceoff Trade Targets, fans were shocked. How could one of the team’s best defencemen even be considered available? He has 26 points in 36 games, which leads the defence in scoring, and has looked fully healthy for the first time in a long time. His contract is also one of the most affordable on the team, and although there’s only one more year left on his $4.6 million cap hit after 2023-24, it’s just the type of deal that can keep the Senators under the cap ceiling.
Whether Chychrun is available is a matter of debate – Staios has been reportedly noncommittal in whether Chychrun is available, basically saying he’s not unavailable – but teams have been reportedly calling and while there’s no rush to do anything, he has been fielding offers. There’s also the fact that, if he chooses to stay, he’s going to want a significant raise on his contract when it expires following the 2024-25 season, probably closer in price to Thomas Chabot. That’s going to create a problem since it’s doubtful the Senators want to tie up $16 million on two left-shot defencemen.
How painful would it be to lose him? 9/10 – This one would sting. A lot. Chychrun has been one of the Senators’ best defencemen all season and has looked much more stable than Chabot, who has taken a step back this season. Adding to the pain is that Ottawa is unlikely to recoup the assets they used to get him, that being the 12th overall pick in 2023 and two second-round picks. But it’s becoming increasingly likely that one of Chabot or Chychrun is going to have to go, and although Chychrun is the better player right now, he may also be the easiest to move.
Joonas Korpisalo
Although there hasn’t been much trade chatter around the Senators starting goalie, the possibility of moving Joonas Korpisalo was mentioned by Shane Seney on NHL Trade Talk and makes a lot of sense when considering just how bad Ottawa’s goalies have been this season. As of writing this, the Senators sit dead last with a .880 combined save percentage (SV%), with Korpisalo ranking nine spots above the bottom among goalies with at least five games played with a .889 SV%. Additionally, he ranks last on the team in goals saved above expected with a negative-11.5. Bad is an understatement.
But, looking around the NHL, it’s hard to blame Ottawa’s goalies. Joey Daccord and Chris Driedger, who started their careers with the Senators, have been excellent this season with the Seattle Kraken, while Cam Talbot looks like an All-Star with the Los Angeles Kings. Still, Staios has to do something, and with several talented goalies drawing trade attention, now may be the time to make a swap. The kicker, though, might be Korpisalo’s $4 million contract, which lasts until 2027-28. That makes a goalie-for-goalie swap incredibly difficult. Better goalies like Jacob Markstrom and John Gibson are over $6 million, and cheaper options have performed only slightly better, leaving Ottawa in the same situation they started in.
How painful would it be to lose him? 5/10 – Looking just at Korpisalo, his departure wouldn’t hurt the team at all. He’s been inconsistent and unable to provide any sort of stability for the struggling Senators. Finding a buyer, however, is a bigger problem, and if Staios wants to upgrade the team’s crease, he’ll need to dump salary, which may involve a much more important player. Would that have to be Mathieu Joseph, who’s revitalized himself this season, or maybe Josh Norris, who was seen as a core member but has taken a step back? Losing either player would hurt much more, so it may be better to just stay the course until 2024-25 and re-evaluate in the offseason.
Thomas Chabot
I mentioned earlier that there’s a defence battle brewing on the left side between Chychrun and Chabot and that one is going to have to go. Chabot hasn’t popped up in any trade rumours thus far, since he makes $8 million per season and will for another four years. But, as of now, he doesn’t have a modified no-movement clause. That can’t be said after July 1, 2024, as his contract will allow him to submit a 10-team no-trade list, making it even more difficult to move him. If the Senators opt for Chychrun over Chabot, now is the time to move him.
After what we’ve seen this season, it’s hard not to see the appeal of sticking with Chychrun. Chabot has played just 17 games this year due to yet another significant injury that kept him out of all of November and part of December. His 10 points show a decent point-per-game pace, but his first goal of 2023-24 came on Jan. 13, 2024. His lack of mobility has also come into question this season, which was pointed out by Marc Methot on the Locked on Senators Podcast. All of that has placed him as the team’s third-best left-shot defenceman, and without much ability to play the right side, he seems to be the odd one out.
How painful would it be to lose him? 8/10 – It wouldn’t be as painful as losing Chychrun this season, but it would still hurt a lot. Chabot was long considered a candidate for the captaincy alongside Brady Tkachuk. He’s the secondary face of this franchise and one of the first stars brought in during the rebuild. But this roster is in desperate need of a shakeup, which may force Staios to trade away a fan-favourite to give them a much-needed recalibration.
Ottawa Has Some Tough Decisions to Make
There are two common sentiments among Senators fans heading into the deadline – no one knows how to fix this team, but something has to change. That’s going to require some difficult choices to be made and will likely see a top-six player moved in favour of a skilled veteran who can stabilize the core. A trade of that magnitude may not come until the offseason, but it feels as though it’s inevitable. But a little more pain may be needed for this team to move forward.
