As November draws to a close, the Ottawa Senators’ dream of making the playoffs for the first time in eight years seems to be fading. After their embarrassing loss to the Vancouver Canucks on Nov. 23 that extended their current losing streak to five games, they have a record of 8-11-1 for a points percentage (PTS%) of just .425. They now sit just one point ahead of the lowly Montreal Canadiens in the Atlantic Division and are five points out of a wild card entry into the postseason.
Ever believers, many of the Senators’ faithful say that after just 20 games it’s too early to throw in the towel on this campaign. President of hockey operations and general manager Steve Staios echoed these feelings saying in a postgame interview on Nov. 20 after his squad’s loss to the Edmonton Oilers that, “I don’t think this is a dire situation for this group at all. The team looks and feels like not only a competitive team, but a playoff looking team.”
After the loss to the Canucks, Staios may well have changed his tune. Here’s why.
Senators Dig Deep Hole for Themselves in November
To punch a ticket to the NHL’s postseason with a wild card, teams generally need to have a PTS% of around .600. For the Senators, this means in their remaining 62 games they’ll need to rack up at least 81 points – and that’s .656 hockey. To put that into perspective, the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers notched a PTS% in the regular season last year of .671.
Does anyone really believe that from now to the end of the season the Senators can take, on average, between six and seven of every 10 games they play? Nothing they’ve shown to this point in the season suggests they can.
What Ailed the Senators in First 20 Games of 2024-25 Season
Social media in Ottawa is exploding with explanations of why the Senators have disappointed so far this season. They often start first with goaltending. Starter Linus Ullmark was supposed to have solved Ottawa’s problems between the pipes. Fans now scoff at his save percentage (SV%) of .881 and his goals-against average (GAA) of 3.10.
Related: Senators’ Goaltending Still a Concern Despite Changes for 2024-25
This stings because former Senators’ goalie Joonas Korpisalo, after eight games with the Boston Bruins this season boasts a SV% of .991 and a GAA of 2.38. The Senators are still paying a quarter of his salary in accordance with the terms of the trade that sent him to Boston last summer.
Some say Ottawa’s Swedish goalie tandem of Ullmark and Anton Forsberg isn’t the problem at all. They just look bad because of what they say is a crummy D-corps playing in front of them. Exhibit number one is Jake Sanderson, once regarded as a stud on the Ottawa blue line, who all but disappeared in November notching just four assists in the 11 games he’s played. On the season he has a plus/minus of minus-11 – the worst on the team.
What makes this hard to swallow is that former Senators’ defenceman Jakob Chychrun, who Ottawa sent to the Washington Capitals in exchange for Nick Jensen and a draft pick, now sports a plus/minus of plus-9 earning a rank of second in the league among defensemen overall. Last season in Ottawa he registered a minus-30.
Sanderson is just one symptom of an Ottawa blue line that continues to disappoint. Akin to a beer league squad, Ottawa’s defence on too many nights fails to clear the zone, turns pucks over, allows opposing players to cruise through the neutral zone and enter the D-zone at will and embarrasses themselves getting caught up ice. It’s one of the reasons they now rank 20th in the league on goals against and their team’s goal differential has slipped to minus-3.
As for points, Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Drake Batherson, Josh Norris and Claude Giroux are all on track for record-setting seasons. Even so, point production by the bottom-six as a whole has been anemic standing at barely more than a point per game. Veteran forwards including newly acquired Michael Amadio and Nick Cousins are not on track to match their point production of previous seasons. What’s more, Shane Pinto has shown himself to be perfectly average despite the high hopes placed on him at the start of the season.
If anyone should know what explains the woeful performance of the Senators to the quarter mark of the season it should be Staios. Yet he’s not sure what’s going on either saying after the loss to the Oilers that, “We’re 8-9-1 and they (opponents) keep scoring for a reason. Do I think we’ve played better than that? Sure. But it’s for us to figure out as a group why that’s our record. That’s what we’re trying to unlock.”
Senators’ Turnaround in December Will Be Tough
The Senators haven’t won the games they should have in October and November. They simply can’t afford to give up two points as they did in games with weaker opponents like the Buffalo Sabres and Philadelphia Flyers. Yet at the same time they need to be able to steal a win or two from good teams. That’s something they haven’t managed to do in November, with the exception of their win against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Nov. 12.
Here’s a look at their opponents in the 13 games they’ll play next month and my assessment of how difficult it will be to win each.
| Probability of an Ottawa Win | Opponent |
| High | Nashville Predators, Anaheim Ducks (two games) Pittsburgh Penguins |
| 50/50 | Detroit Red Wings, New York Islanders, Seattle Kraken, Canucks, Oilers |
| Low | Carolina Hurricanes, Calgary Flames, Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota Wild |
In December, six consecutive games are out of town – part of a nine-game road trip the Senators must play because Canadian Tire Centre is hosting the World Junior Championship at the end of the year. In all, eight of 13 games next month are road games.
To achieve a PTS% of .600 in December, the Senators would need to win three of the four games I’ve assigned a high probability of them winning. On top of that, they’ll need to take three of the five that I’ve given them 50/50 odds of winning and two of four matchups against teams that I’ve given them little chance of winning. That’s a tall order and still wouldn’t be good enough for them to notch the .600 PTS% on the season as a whole that they’ll probably need to win a wild card spot in the playoffs.
To sum it all up, the Senators will need a recovery in December worthy of Lazarus to have a chance at avoiding an early start to their golf season next spring.
