As the 2024-25 preseason kicked off, all eyes were on the Ottawa Senators’ first-round pick from the most recent draft, and Carter Yakemchuk didn’t disappoint. Not only did the defender score a beautiful back-hand overtime goal in his first NHL game against the rival Toronto Maple Leafs, but he did so against Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Jake McCabe, deking around them as though they weren’t even there. His effort stunned the Toronto crowd as well as his coach, Travis Green, who couldn’t say much else other than, “Wow.”
Rookie defenseman Carter Yakemchuk wins it for the Senators! 🤩 pic.twitter.com/5xUlQynoW0
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) September 23, 2024
After such an incredible play in his first game, it was impossible not to imagine Yakemchuk’s dynamic skillset on the Senators’ blueline in 2024-25. He has the size and a right-handed shot, making him an attractive option for Ottawa’s open third pairing. However, despite the potential fit, keeping Yakemchuk in the NHL would be a grave mistake that could have long-term ramifications for the franchise. Not only could it stunt his development, but it could shorten the career of the team’s only top-tier prospect on defence. Regardless of how well he does in the preseason, he needs to spend at least another season back in the Western Hockey League (WHL).
NHL Preseason Hides Lots of Issues
The NHL preseason is a lot of fun. Rookies and prospects are given starring roles alongside some of the best players in the game, allowing them to thrive in ways that they couldn’t during the regular season. Veterans also frequently take it easy during the preseason – just look at how Marner and Matthews are skating in the above clip – because they know they’ve already made the team and don’t want to risk injury in games that don’t matter in the standings. For those reasons, it can present a skewed version of the NHL and any results must be taken with a grain of salt. After all, Ty Rattie was the best player during the 2018-19 preseason, then proceeded to score just four goals in 50 regular season games.
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There’s no questioning Yakemchuk’s abilities. He was impressive all training camp, leading Green to put him on a pairing with Thomas Chabot to try and give the 18-year-old a strong mentor in his first NHL game. But after seeing his confidence and skill with the puck, the Senators’ alternate captain said, “He’s a talented player, fluid out there, just sees the game really well, with an elite shot. So you know what? There’s not much that I’m going to teach him. I think he’s already got most of it, and it’s just about being there for him and helping him.”
If Chabot doesn’t have much to teach Yakemchuk, there’s an argument that he should be one of the six in the Senators’ season opener. But his defence is still very much a work in progress; just last season, he frequently made overconfident plays that ended up hurting his team by either coughing up the puck or losing track of his man. He also still needs to improve his skating, as he can get caught flat-footed and currently doesn’t have the speed to catch up. It’s not a fluke that he scored 30 goals last season in the WHL and his vision and strength are massive assets for him in this area. Yet there were still moments in his first game where he lost track of players that led to scoring opportunities, proving he’s not NHL-ready yet.
Calgary Offers the Best Place to Develop
Right now, the Senators have most of their blue line locked in for 2024-25. Artem Zub, Chabot, Jake Sanderson, and Nick Jensen are guaranteed to start the year in the top four, leaving the only question marks for the bottom pairing. Playing on the third pairing is not an easy deployment; the minutes are limited and they are often tasked at shutting down the opponent’s stars before giving way to the most dynamic defenders on the first and second pairings. It’s why Green is looking for consistency from whoever ends up there, and why teams frequently employ grizzled veterans to handle it.
Last season, Yakemchuk was wildly inconsistent, sometimes looking like a different player from shift to shift. While he has certainly made improvements from his draft seaon’s performance, there are still moments where he looks very much like a rookie and had some rougher shifts against the Maple Leafs. Furthermore, while he has the size and physicality to be a grinding NHL defender, he projects to be a high-end offensive contributor and still lacks many of the finer points in his defensive game. Putting him on the third pairing as an 18-year-old would be setting him up for failure.
Back with the Calgary Hitmen, however, Yakemchuk will be the team’s top defenceman. He’ll regularly play over 20 minutes a night, run the team’s power play, and quarterback their breakouts. After not making the playoffs last season, the Hitmen look to take a step forward, especially on the back end. The team added the 6-foot-5 Axel Hurtig at the Canadian Hockey League Import Draft and draft-eligible Reese Hamilton could be a first-round pick this season. Both are left shots, though, giving Yakemchuk his choice in defensive partners. Both offer fantastic opportunities to develop other aspects of his game, and another season in junior will help iron out his inconsistency issues.
Senators Can’t Risk His Development
Many players have made the NHL immediately following their draft year and have gone on to have successful NHL careers. However, that’s much more common among forwards than defencemen. According to Quant Hockey, only 36 defenders have played 10 or more games in the NHL at 18 years old since the implementation of the amateur draft in 1969. Of those, there’s first-overall selections Rasmus Dahlin and Aaron Ekblad, who are two of the best defencemen in the NHL right now. But there’s also Gord Kluzak, another first-overall pick, struggled with knee injuries after joining the Boston Bruins and retired in 1991. Aki Berg also struggled with injuries after going third overall in 1995, as did Wayne McBean, who went fourth in 1987 and was described as a Paul Coffey-type player.
Defencemen take longer to develop. The defensive side of hockey is harder to master and more physically demanding, and few players coming out of their draft season have all the tools necessary to thrive in the NHL. Just take Dahlin, who struggled to look like the generational star he’d been pegged as until 2022-23, when he hit 73 points in 77 games. Even Chabot, who played two junior seasons before making the Senators, was over-used early in his career and likely led to him becoming injury prone.
So, maybe Yakemchuk could play in the NHL this season. Maybe he could even do pretty good as a big, heavy-hitting defender on the third pairing. One of the best ways to learn a new skill is by necessity, and he would need to figure out consistency and defensive awareness very quickly in that role. But putting him in that role would also force him to limit his creativity and dynamic puck skills, two areas which will make him a top defenceman in the league one day. The Senators don’t need another Erik Brannstrom, who was forced to play defensive hockey on the third pairing which all but killed his potential as a top-four puck-moving defenceman. With so few top prospects in their system, Ottawa needs to be patient with Yakemchuk, no matter how good he is now.
