The St. Louis Blues selected center, Dalibor Dvorsky, with the 10th overall pick in the stacked 2023 NHL Draft. At the time, he was a consensus top-12 prospect, viewed to have a strong two-way game and work ethic but underwhelming skating abilities. Now 18 months removed from the draft, this assessment remains, but his early success in the American Hockey League (AHL) has increased his perceived ceiling and floor.
With 10 goals and 21 points in 27 games for the Springfield Thunderbirds in the AHL, Dvorsky has quickly caught the attention of Blues fans and management. While a crowded forward group currently makes an NHL call-up less likely, it is crucial for the Blues to reward their 19-year-old prospect with an opportunity in the NHL. When that chance comes, he should be granted the freedom to make mistakes and grow, giving him the time and experience needed to thrive at the NHL level.
Dvorsky’s Development Must Be Priority #1
From Doug Armstrong to the players, the Blues have stayed steadfast in their commitment to a three-to-four-year retooling process initiated during the 2022-23 season. This effort has seen the departures of key figures such as Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko, Craig Berube, and other members of the 2019 Stanley Cup-winning roster. Throughout this transformation, the Blues have focused on reshaping their lineup and prioritizing youth development—a strategy that must extend to Dvorsky.
The current forward group boasts an abundance of talent. Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, and Jordan Kyrou have cemented their roles in the top six, while players like Jake Neighbours, Dylan Holloway, Brayden Schenn, Zack Bolduc, Alexandre Texier, Brandon Saad, and Mathieu Joseph have competed for top-six minutes. This depth has forced forwards deserving of elevated roles into bottom-six demotions, creating a significant challenge for any newcomer to break into the lineup with immediate impact.
Fortunately for Dvorsky and other young players like Holloway, Bolduc, and Neighbours, trades appear imminent to free up ice time. Brandon Saad’s recent healthy scratch has fueled speculation about a potential move, while players like Joseph, Texier, Radek Faksa, and Oskar Sundqvist, although less likely than Saad, could also attract trade interest, potentially clearing more ice time.
Should Dvorsky earn a promotion to the NHL, it must come with a guarantee of top-six minutes and power-play opportunities, even if he struggles. While the Blues would love to contend for a playoff spot in 2025, their primary measure of success for the 2024-25 season lies not in postseason qualification but in successfully developing the youth.
Blues Mishandled Bolduc Last Season
Ahead of the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline, the Blues promoted Bolduc from the AHL to the NHL. He debuted on Feb. 22 against the New York Islanders alongside Schenn and Neighbours and registered just 9:57 of ice time. This was understandable for an NHL debut, but he continued to get shoved in the bottom six throughout the remainder of the season.
Related: Blues Are Making a Mistake With Zachary Bolduc’s Development
Bolduc finished his 25 NHL games with an average of just 12:01 times on ice per game, and a median of 11:14. He registered less than 10 minutes of ice time on eight different occasions, including a March 23 matchup against the Minnesota Wild where he played less than six minutes. Notably, he finished his 25 NHL games with just 15 minutes of powerplay ice time. These decisions were initially made by former head coach Drew Bannister, but they were not overruled by Armstrong—the one responsible for promoting Bolduc—suggesting that this short-sighted strategy could potentially be repeated, though it must not be.
What Should the Blues Do With Dvorsky?
If the Blues decide to promote Dvorsky to the NHL, it must come with the assurance that he receives top-six minutes and power-play time. His linemates will play a crucial role in maximizing his skill set, making players like Kyrou and Holloway ideal options. Both possess strong skating and shooting abilities, which can help offset Dvorsky’s weaknesses. Additionally, Holloway’s strength and versatility around the net make him a valuable partner, capable of handling the physical aspects of the game.
Dalibor Dvorský nets the first goal of the #WorldJuniors! @StLouisBlues | #stlblues pic.twitter.com/EFkkuCn6yj
— NHL Network (@NHLNetwork) December 26, 2024
As for the timing of Dvorsky’s call-up, the Blues have two likely paths. The first option is to promote him with 25 games left in the season, giving him significant ice time while preserving his eligibility for the 2026 Calder Trophy—a strategy Armstrong deployed with Bolduc last season.
The second option is to wait until there are nine games remaining in the season, taking advantage of the entry-level contract slide. This rule allows teams to avoid using a year of an 18 or 19-year-old’s contract by limiting them to fewer than 10 NHL games before returning them to junior hockey.
If the Blues believe Dvorsky is ready, they should set aside concerns about salary implications or award eligibility and promote him immediately after the 2025 World Junior Championship. Delaying his development for contractual reasons or award eligibility is shortsighted in the context of this retool. However, if he is called up, the Blues must guarantee he receives the ice time necessary for his growth. Based on Armstrong’s history, it’s likely we’ll see Dvorsky promoted around late February, similar to Bolduc’s trajectory last season.
