Ah, yes, it’s that time of year again. The countdown has been on, the malls have been full, and for a lot of North America, the ground is white as well getting ready for another Christmas. The letters to the North Pole have been written and soon the milk and cookies will be out. Much like in the real world of holiday magic, there are NHL teams that have requests for Santa this year.
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The Dallas Stars have 40 points and find themselves fourth in the Central Division and in the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference. It’s been an up-and-down start for Dallas, but with the success of teams such as the Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota Wild, and Colorado Avalanche, urgency has settled in quicker than in past seasons. The ground might not be white in Texas, but the Stars have wishes just like everybody else. But what could a Stanley Cup-contending team possibly need? Let’s find out.
Santa, Please Bring Dallas a Power Play
As the season chugs along, and the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, every detail matters. One of the biggest being the special teams. The Stars have the fifth-best penalty kill in the NHL, 84.9%, so Santa can save one of those for some other team. What they don’t have is a steady, consistent, and productive power play.
The Stars are only 15.9% with the man advantage, which is ranked 26th in the NHL. Much has been made of the absence of Tyler Seguin here at The Hockey Writers, and many other media outlets. Him not being in the lineup has certainly caused a plethora of issues for the Stars. However, the power play has steadily been going downhill all season, with and without Seguin. In October, the Stars had a 20.7% PP. In November, it went down to 17.1%, and in December it has cratered all the way down to 10.8%. To dive a little deeper, on the road, it’s actually been pretty good. The PP is 22.4% away from Dallas. At the American Airlines Center, however, it’s a staggering 10.3%. To make this even more black and white, when they win the PP is at 21.9%. When they lose, 7.0. Seven. Point. Zero.
So what’s the fix? Many in Dallas are calling for the firing of Steve Spott, who is the coach who oversees the power play. This isn’t new. When the PP had its issues last season he was a topic of conversation as well. Spott has been with Pete DeBoer for a long time, previously in San Jose and Vegas, and has seemingly been in charge of the power play in both of those situations. That may be a long-term solution, but we can talk about that later because it’s more than likely not happening mid-season.
We can mull over X’s and O’s all day, and of course, that is probably part of the problem. The truth is, however, the Stars are just too talented to be this bad on the power play. Just look at its success on the road. They can do it. Puck possession has been a problem and creating quality chances has been a problem. More often than not they get pucks on the net. Look no further than a five-minute powerplay against the New York Rangers last week where they got eight shots on goal. Sure, they were playing one of the best goaltenders in the game, but regardless, this is a recurring theme thus far for the Stars.
Success Away From Texas
The home and away splits for the Stars are really interesting. They are 13-5-0 at home and 7-8-0 on the road. Notice, that they have no overtime or shootout losses. Maybe losing a couple in overtime rather than regulation would help them in the point column, but I digress. We already went over the PP, so here’s a quick look at the penalty kill. At home, their PK is a sparkling 91.3%. On the road, 78.7%. Quite the opposite of what we see with the power play.
At home, they have 60 goals, giving them a plus-20 goal differential. On the road, they have scored only 44, with a minus-1 goal differential. At home, they have 32.44 shots per game, while they have 29.01 on the road. It’s harder to play on the road than at home in any sport, true. But these road numbers need to change down the stretch in what is such a tight divisional race.
Another part of the issues on the road has been the play of goaltender Jake Oettinger. He is one of the best goalies in the NHL, and he was recently just paid like one. Last season, his home vs. road stats were almost identical. In fact, his road stats were slightly better. This season, however, it’s been tough sledding away from the ACC. Oettinger is 4-5-0 on the road, with a .889 save percentage (SV%) and a 3.02 goals-against average (GAA). The team as a whole has had their share of defensive issues wearing the white swag, so we can’t pin all of those numbers solely on the goaltenders. Even so, his play on the road will have to tighten up moving forward.
Consistent Goal Scoring
“Dear Santa, to finish off our list, please bring the Stars more goal scoring. Or even another goal scorer if you can spare it. Sincerely, Pete Deboer.” While I have no proof that this is exactly what he wrote, I can imagine it’s close. He probably left a copy on general manager Jim Nill’s desk, too.
In October and December combined, the Stars played 20 games. In those 20 games, they scored 56 goals, or 2.8 per game. Those numbers pan out when we consider that the Stars have scored more than three goals in a game only twice in December. In November they scored 48 goals in just 13 games, which is 3.6 per game. At first glance, Dallas’ reality is somewhere between those two extremes. However, last season, they were third in the NHL scoring 3.5 goals per game. No Seguin and no Joe Pavelski have something to do with it, for sure. But again, the Stars are too talented to be scoring this little.
Matt Duchene, 13 goals, Mason Marchment, 12 goals, and Roope Hintz, 15 goals, have all been doing their part. Hintz started off slow, but has been coming around as of late. For Duchene and Marchment it’s the opposite. Since Seguin’s injury, their production has gone down. Jamie Benn has seven goals, which may not seem like a lot, but he’s on pace to be around where he ended last season, 21. Apart from a 33-goal season in 2022-23, the 35-year-old captain hasn’t scored more than 20 goals consistently since 2018-19.
The real weight of this conversation falls onto the shoulders of Jason Robertson and Wyatt Johnston. Johnston is 21 years old and is coming off an impressive 32-goal campaign, after scoring 24 in his rookie season. He only has six this season. He’s young, so there is some slack to give here. That being said, regardless of his age, there’s an expectation on him to give much more than he is giving right now.
For Robertson, 26, there is little slack to give. He had a procedure done on his foot this summer, making him miss training camp and the preseason. Fair enough. Still, seven goals in 33 games is just not going to cut it. After scoring 40-plus goals in back-to-back seasons, Robertson had 29 goals last season, but still 51 assists, giving him just shy of a point per game. This season, he is on pace for 57 points. In a season without the Stars’ two most consistent producers, Robertson needs to be the superstar everyone knows he can be. The last stat that needs to be mentioned is his shot total. When Robertson is confident, he shoots the puck a ton. In his 40-plus goal seasons, Robo has 220 and 313 shots respectively. This season, he is on pace for 201. It’s not hard to do the math on this one. When he shoots, he scores. Right now, he’s not shooting nearly enough.
Final Thought
The big question, as Santa reads this list, is whether he’s going to sprinkle his holiday magic on these three issues, or gift the Stars with a solution that is currently not on this team. According to PuckPedia, they have $1,364,689 of cap space to work with. If they place Seguin on long-term injured reserve (LTIR), that would give them more than $10 million. According to local media, the sense is that they want to wait for a clearer timeline of his return before they place him on LTIR. The point is, they have the talent on the roster to fix these issues. Even if they do, the Stars could use one more scorer to put them over the top. They’ve exited the playoffs two wins shy of the Stanley Cup Final two years in a row, both times it’s the offense that dried up. Unlike the gifts we’ll open on Christmas morning, only time will tell if Dallas’ wishes will be granted.
