The Detroit Red Wings’ rebuild has become a deeply polarizing subject, with opinions ranging from glowing optimism to harsh criticism, depending on who you ask.
But how does one measure a rebuild? How do you evaluate the progress the Red Wings are or aren’t making? Or if it’s a success or not?
Today, we’re going to explore what goes into a rebuild, where the Red Wings started, and what has happened so far. With all of this information and context, we’ll be able to properly assess Detroit’s progress.
Rebuilding 101
No two rebuilds are alike. But, generally speaking, they have similar objectives:
- Build up through the draft
- Sell off assets that won’t be part of the next contention window
- Acquire draft picks and prospects that could be part of the next contention window
- Take low-risk, high-reward chances on players, prospects, and market inefficiencies
- Prioritize player development
That said, every organization has a different starting point. Rebuilding teams have varying amounts of talent to trade away, prospects already in the pipeline, and draft capital already accumulated.
At a higher level, team owners have different viewpoints on how rebuilds should be conducted. Some GMs are given long timelines to rebuild, while others face more pressure to turn things around quickly. Owners can also vary in terms of risk tolerance regarding roster management decisions and the revenue impacts of bottoming out. Investment levels in departments and resources can differ as well.
Then, once in the thick of it, luck becomes a factor. There’s no guarantee tanking teams get the first- or second-overall draft picks that they covet. Draft classes vary in talent, too – see Auston Matthews and Nail Yakupov.
Lastly, teams must contend with uncontrollable factors, such as market desirability and the presence—or absence—of state or provincial income taxes. Additionally, simultaneous rebuild efforts by other teams can intensify competition for top draft picks and valuable trade opportunities.
All of this to reiterate that no two rebuilds are alike.
Red Wings Rebuild: Setting the Stage
Although Ken Holland attempted to retool the Red Wings after their quarter-century playoff streak came to an end, Detroit’s rebuild really began when Steve Yzerman was named general manager on April 19, 2019.
In his introductory press conference, Yzerman promised to build through the draft and asked for patience – a lot of work needed to be done.
Take, for example, Detroit’s NHL roster. Yzerman inherited a team devoid of top-tier talent.
To illustrate this, take a look at how the Red Wings lined up for their first game after the 2019 trade deadline:
A look at tonight's projected lines. #MTLvsDET #LGRW pic.twitter.com/XcHYRtrJa4
— Detroit Red Wings (@DetroitRedWings) February 26, 2019
Sure, Dylan Larkin, Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Andreas Athanasiou were good young players then, but other than those four, the Red Wings didn’t have much in terms of talent that could be dealt quickly for high-quality draft picks or prospects.
Similarly, the prospect pool was in rough shape. At the time, Detroit’s top 10 prospects included:
- Filip Zadina – LW
- Joe Veleno – C
- Dennis Cholowski – LD
- Michael Rasmussen – C
- Jonatan Berggren – LW
- Filip Hronek – RD
- Jared McIsaac – LD
- Gustav Lindstrom – RD
- Evgeny Svechnikov – LW
- Vili Saarijarvi – RD
(The rest of the 2018-19 mid-year prospect rankings can be found here.)
To recap, Detroit’s lackluster NHL roster didn’t have strong trade chips apart from their young forwards, and the prospect cupboard was essentially bare. Yzerman had to rebuild the organization from the ground up.
Additional Context for Detroit’s Rebuild
Thus far, we’ve explored the components of a rebuild and the starting point for the Red Wings. Before delving into what transpired, two additional points warrant attention.
First, the Red Wings were far from the only team embarking on a rebuild over the past six-plus years. In fact, several teams chose to dismantle their rosters and rebuild through the draft during this period.
The NHL has a supply-and-demand economy. An abundance of sellers usually means lower prices for buyers since the market is flooded. That competition clearly had an impact on the Red Wings – it made their rebuild more difficult to execute.
The second item worth pointing out is Detroit’s player development strategy. Yzerman and the Red Wings like to cook low and slow, not over an open flame. Why? So that they can maximize player growth in the system, leading to a better on-ice product down the road.
This methodical approach within the framework of a rebuild can be broken down into five steps:
- Draft – Find, target, and select high-end, high-character prospects.
- Develop – Provide adequate time (and resources) for prospects to grow in junior, European, or minor leagues.
- Compete – Create meaningful competition in order for these prospects to earn professional roles.
- Mature – Once in Detroit, surround the prospects with strong leaders so they can learn to play the right way.
- Lead – Demand that these players step up and take charge of the team.
This is the Yzerplan. This is the process that Yzerman and company followed throughout the rebuild to construct a competitive, high-IQ team.
With that out of the way, we can now cover the rebuild with the proper context.
Red Wings Rebuild: 2019-Present
In this section, we’ll examine the rebuild on a season-by-season basis, aligning with the NHL calendar year from July 1 to June 30. For each season, we’ll delve into the various elements that contribute to the rebuilding process, including:
- Offseason – Free agents and trades completed over the summer to add to/subtract from the roster
- Chances Taken – Calculated risks taken on prospects, players, contracts, and other market inefficiencies in an attempt to give the rebuild a boost
- Trade Deadline – Direction taken at the deadline to sell, buy, or stand pat
- Result – Where the team ultimately finished in the standings
- Draft – The draft slot doled out by the draft lottery and players selected
With that said, we’ll start with the 2019 NHL Draft – the first major event Yzerman oversaw as Red Wings GM.
Year 0 of the Red Wings Rebuild – 2018-19
- Draft: Dropped two spots to No. 6; selected Moritz Seider
Year 1 of the Red Wings Rebuild – 2019-20
- Offseason: No major additions – Valtteri Filppula, Patrik Nemeth, Adam Erne
- Chances Taken: Erne, Robby Fabbri, Brendan Perlini, Oliwer Kaski, Eric Comrie
- Trade Deadline: Sold; moved Mike Green and Andreas Athanasiou
- Result: Last place by a wide margin (23 points)
- Draft: Dropped three spots to No. 4; selected Lucas Raymond
Year 2 of the Red Wings Rebuild – 2020-21
- Offseason: No major additions – Bobby Ryan, Thomas Greiss, Jon Merrill, Vladislav Namestnikov, Sam Gagner
- Chances Taken: Ryan, Mathias Brome, Marc Staal (acquired a second-round pick to take Staal’s contract), Dmytro Timashov
- Trade Deadline: Sold; moved Merrill, Nemeth, and Anthony Mantha
- Result: Fifth-worst in the NHL; a few other teams tanked
- Draft: Dropped one spot to No. 6; selected Simon Edvinsson; used deadline assets to pick Sebastian Cossa at No. 15
Year 3 of the Red Wings Rebuild – 2021-22
- Offseason: Raymond, Seider, Joe Veleno joined team; otherwise no major additions – Alex Nedeljkovic, Nick Leddy, Pius Suter, Jordan Oesterle
- Chances Taken: Nedeljkovic, Suter, Mitchell Stephens, Jake Walman, Magnus Hellberg
- Trade Deadline: Sold; moved Leddy, Namestnikov, Troy Stecher
- Result: Eighth-worst in the NHL; several other teams tanked
- Draft: Selected Marco Kasper at No. 8
Year 4 of the Red Wings Rebuild – 2022-23
- Offseason: Intentional roster-building – Ville Husso, David Perron, Andrew Copp, Dominik Kubalik, Ben Chiarot, Olli Maatta, Robert Hagg
- Chances Taken: Husso, Kubalik, Alexandre Doucet, Alex Chiasson
- Trade Deadline: Sold; moved Tyler Bertuzzi, Filip Hronek, Oskar Sundqvist, Jakub Vrana
- Result: Played meaningful games through February, then collapsed; finished ninth-worst in the NHL
- Draft: Selected Nate Danielson at No. 9; added Axel Sandin-Pellikka at No. 17 with pick acquired in Hronek trade
Year 5 of the Red Wings Rebuild – 2023-24
- Offseason: Intentional roster-building – Alex DeBrincat, Patrick Kane, J.T. Compher, Jeff Petry, Shayne Gostisbehere, Daniel Sprong, Klim Kostin, James Reimer, Justin Holl, Christian Fischer, Alex Lyon
- Chances Taken: Kane, Sprong, Kostin, Jesse Kiiskinen
- Trade Deadline: Stood pat; dealt Kostin’s cap hit
- Result: Played meaningful games all season; missed playoffs on a tiebreaker
- Draft: Selected Michael Brandsegg-Nygard at No. 15
Year 6 of the Red Wings Rebuild – 2024-25
- Offseason: Simon Edvinsson, Jonatan Berggren, Marco Kasper, Albert Johansson joined team; otherwise intentional roster-building – Vladimir Tarasenko, Erik Gustafsson, Cam Talbot, Tyler Motte
Evaluating Detroit’s Rebuild
So have the Red Wings made progress? Have they been successful? Let’s go back to the five components of a rebuild and evaluate Detroit’s actions in those fields.
Build Through the Draft
If the objective is to build through the draft, then success or failure in that realm should define the rebuild. In Detroit’s case, they’ve nailed their first-round picks – even with zero lottery luck. It’s hard to argue any of their first-round selections since 2019. They’ve found gems in later rounds, too.
In all, Yzerman has built up a pipeline through the draft that consists of a cornerstone blueliner in Moritz Seider, a budding star in Lucas Raymond, two more blue-chip defensemen (Simon Edvinsson and Axel Sandin Pellikka), two elite goalie prospects in Sebastian Cossa and Trey Augustine, three more forwards with top-six potential (Marco Kasper, Nate Danielson, and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard), plus at least 10 more skaters with NHL upside.
Verdict: Exceeds Expectations
Sell Assets
Despite not having a lot to sell initially, Yzerman ripped it down to the studs. He dealt several veterans on expiring contracts and made bold decisions to move Andreas Athanasiou, Anthony Mantha, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Filip Hronek over the years.
There was some heartburn, though. Jakub Vrana and a few other acquisitions didn’t pan out.
Verdict: Meets Expectations
Acquire Additional Picks & Prospects
The 2024 NHL Draft was the first time under Yzerman’s leadership that the Red Wings didn’t have multiple first- or second-round picks to work with. All of the extra high-quality draft picks gave the organization a big advantage in adding top young talent.
Verdict: Exceeds Expectations
Related: Red Wings Prospect Report: Cossa, Danielson, Plante & More
Take Low-Risk, High-Reward Chances
Yzerman hit on several swings of the low-risk, high-reward nature. These included signing Patrick Kane and Dominik Kubalik, plus the acquisitions of Marc Staal, Robby Fabbri, and Jake Walman. All of these players provided positive value in Detroit as stopgaps.
His misses didn’t hamper the organization too much, either. The most Detroit parted with were third-round picks to bring in Alex Nedeljkovic and Ville Husso. Plus, both were acquired for less than market value because of their previous teams’ depth and salary cap constraints.
Verdict: Meets Expectations
Prioritize Player Development
From a player development standpoint, the five-step Yzerplan had a hugely positive impact on Seider, Raymond, and Edvinsson. These three—along with Dylan Larkin—are now Detroit’s top players, with Edvinsson and Seider becoming one of the best pairings in the entire league.
In addition, the Red Wings have consistently earned high marks in prospect pipeline rankings, even as several players have graduated to the NHL level over the years. This sustained success reflects the organization’s strong emphasis on drafting and developing talent.
Verdict: Exceeds Expectations
Putting all of this together—where the team started, Yzerman’s actions, the ratings, and the uncontrollable/external variables that the organization has had to navigate—it’s fair to say that Detroit’s rebuild is progressing and has been successful thus far. The on-ice product is coming along, but the prospect pipeline is the true indicator of success, and the Red Wings have a great stable of young players.
If there’s one point of contention, though, it’s the 2022 offseason. Detroit’s many acquisitions propelled them out of the NHL’s basement into the mushy middle. Key additions Andrew Copp and Ben Chiarot have been disappointing during their tenure in Hockeytown. Plus, their bloated, long-term contracts have hamstrung the organization.
This challenge of becoming a slightly improved team—yet still falling short of playoff contention—coupled with reduced salary cap flexibility has become a focal point for critics of the Red Wings’ rebuild. However, the situation is more nuanced, and much of it ties back to the five-stage Yzerplan outlined earlier.
The acquisitions of Chiarot, Copp, and David Perron were strategic moves designed to support Seider and Raymond following their stellar rookie seasons. These veterans were brought in to foster meaningful competition within the lineup and to mentor Detroit’s young players.
Moreover, Dylan Larkin was approaching unrestricted free agency the following summer. There may have been pressure to accelerate the team’s progress and demonstrate a promising future to secure Larkin’s commitment. Losing him—whether through a trade or as a free agent—would have been a significant setback to the rebuild’s trajectory.
Given this, I reject the notion that “being bad for longer” was a realistic strategy for the Red Wings. If anything, Detroit’s salary cap management and/or pro scouting should be criticized, not the high-level direction of the team. The latter has proven to be successful thus far.
It’s impossible to rebuild perfectly, but the Red Wings have done a great job with the cards they’ve been dealt.
What’s Next for the Red Wings?
While Yzerman has accomplished quite a bit during his time in Detroit, there’s still work to be done. The Red Wings are still missing a few key elements:
- One or two top-six forwards
- One top-six defenseman
The 2025 NHL Draft should help Detroit acquire at least one of these players. For the others, Yzerman will need to explore the trade market for another Alex DeBrincat-type of deal or make a big splash in free agency.
With these players in place, the Red Wings will have a formidable lineup capable of reaching the playoffs for years to come. At that point, the rebuild will be over, and the organization can turn to creating and maintaining a sustainable talent pipeline.
