With the conclusion of a 4-1 loss against the Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center on Sunday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning have dropped four straight games, including all three on the California road trip. They have pieced together a few solid games, outshooting the Ducks 37-26 and the Los Angeles Kings 34-21, but the bounces haven’t gone their way.
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Despite dominance in the shot count, a loss is a loss in the NHL. Here are the three most vital takeaways from the Lightning’s disappointing losing streak.
The Top Power Play Unit Is Ice Cold
Throughout their four-game skid, the Lightning have scored just one power-play goal on nine attempts, good enough for roughly an 11% conversion rate. Their only power-play goal since Dec. 29 was Jake Guentzel’s one-timer from Nikita Kucherov’s deceptive feed, the only goal scored in the loss to Anaheim.
While the absence of Steven Stamkos played a factor in the early season power play struggles, the Lightning’s top unit got things together and still sits at a 26.4% success rate for the third-best power play in the NHL. However, if the Lightning catch a break or two on the power play, they likely win at least two of the four games they’ve lost in the past week and a half.
In summary, power plays go through hot streaks and droughts, and the talent of the Lightning’s five-man unit will eventually shine. They’re too skilled to remain at an 11% conversion rate for a long stint of games, so fans should remain optimistic on the special teams front.
Shooting Luck Will Turn Back Around Eventually
Halfway through the 2024-25 season, the Lightning rock the best Shooting Goals Above Expected per 60 (Sh±/60) via EvolvingHockey. In other words, the Lightning are one of the league’s best at finishing their scoring chances, and this success is no fluke when the historical data is considered.
The Lightning historically outpace their expected offensive rates due to deception and one-timers. During this four-game losing streak, they have scored just four goals on 8.86 expected at five-on-five. They have generated scoring chances good enough to score nearly nine five-on-five goals, but the opposition’s goaltenders have held them to roughly five goals below that.
With their talent up front, the Lightning won’t shoot at this horrific pace forever, and their luck will turn around at the right time. When one thing goes wrong for a team in the NHL, everything else seems to quickly go south. Look at the New York Rangers for example, who started the season with a record of 12-4-1. One negative event turns into a plethora of drama supplemented by a poor attitude and locker room culture. The Lightning must remain optimistic and stick to their game so they don’t collapse like the Rangers.
Upgrades Must Happen on Offense
The Lightning’s four-game losing streak has shown where the team needs help most. The bottom-six is a decent possession group for the Lightning, but their lack of goal-scoring continues to punch them in the mouth. While a bottom-pairing defenseman could be useful, the Lightning have allowed just 2.04 expected goals against per 60 (xGA/60) at five-on-five since Dec. 29 via Natural Stat Trick. This defensive rate ranks seventh best in the NHL since that date.
With the Lightning’s back end suppressing scoring chances and the bottom six not contributing offensively, Tampa Bay must find that third-line scoring forward. While Kaapo Kakko was an intriguing option, the Seattle Kraken acquired his services from the Rangers. Other names like Nils Hoglander remain available, and the Lightning shouldn’t be afraid to start making calls.
Now’s Not Time to Panic
Yes, the Lightning have lost to three underwhelming teams and four games in a row. Yet, fans shouldn’t be nervous as the Atlantic Division is still in reach for Tampa Bay. They have significantly fewer games played and a better winning percentage than the Boston Bruins.
The Lightning return to action at home in their rescheduled matchup with the Carolina Hurricanes on Jan. 7. That game was canceled due to Hurricane Milton at the beginning of the season. Puck drop for that matchup is at 7 p.m. Eastern time.
